Opinion

Taiwan’s role in battle for Northeast Asian dominance

(Courtesy of Presidential Office)

• Publication Date：01/13/2013
• Source： Taiwan Today
• By  Edward I-shin Chen

How should the ROC respond to the new order emerging in Northeast Asia following elections in mainland China, Russia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, as well as key regional player the U.S.? Although most of the leaders are not new faces, the changes, together with the loose cannon that is North Korea, will create an ever more complex state of affairs.

Faced with rising nationalism throughout Northeast Asia, Japan’s tricky situation, numerous territorial disputes, an escalating arms race and economic uncertainties, the ROC should enhance its relations with the major regional powers, continue promoting the East China Sea peace initiative, produce defensive weaponry of its own and pull out all the stops in participating in regional economic integration.

The increasing tide of nationalistic or rightist views in mainland China, Japan and South Korea will be hard to stem. For Taiwan the problem is not populism, but rather conflicting calls for friendly ties with Beijing to counter Washington, or the reverse. Neither suggestion is in Taiwan’s interest, so Taipei’s most viable response is to follow through on its policy of promoting peaceful ties with mainland China while maintaining friendship with Japan and an alliance with the U.S.

(CNA)

Beijing and Seoul tend to brand Tokyo’s mounting nationalism a revival of militarism, but this is a historically confused analogy and demonization of Japan, as most Asian countries are no longer backward. Just as mainland China and South Korea have the right to elevate their global status, Japan has the right to develop in the direction of a “normal country.”

Still, to dispel the doubts of its neighbors, it must sincerely apologize for the mistakes of World War II and provide justice for former comfort women.

Whether the various sovereignty disputes among mainland China, Russia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will lead to war depends on the attitudes taken by Washington and Beijing. Differences between mainland China and Japan over the Diaoyutai Archipelago appear to be teetering on the brink of war, while the Japan-South Korea row over the Takeshima, or Dokdo, island group also seems volatile enough for hostilities to be set off anytime through inadvertent conflict.

In reality, however, as long as Washington and Beijing have no desire to fight, warfare is unlikely; small-scale clashes would not escalate into open war.

The ROC has always stood behind peaceful resolution of disputes, so continuing to promote the East China Sea peace initiative must be core policy for 2013. While it is a long-term challenge for small countries to advance a regional policy, it is far better than sitting idly by while tensions mount.

(Courtesy of Kevin Cheng)

Northeast Asia is embroiled in an intensifying arms race—Russia is selling weapons to mainland China and Vietnam; mainland China is buying from Russia and selling to other countries; the U.S. is selling to many nations in the region; even Japan has decided from 2013 to market its stealth submarines to Malaysia, Vietnam and Australia.

Although Taiwan’s purchases of arms from the U.S. have been influenced by interference from Beijing, it can still produce some defensive weapons itself.

The struggle for dominance in Northeast Asia is more likely to be determined on the smokeless battlefield of economics. Although mainland China may supersede the U.S. as the world’s largest economy by 2030, it will have to find ways of dealing with the thorny issues of industrial innovation, increasingly serious corruption, growing popular discontent, authoritarianism and human rights.

The U.S. is expected to start recovering by 2017, but that will depend on resolving the fiscal cliff and excessively high twin deficits—in the domestic budget and foreign trade—as well as maintaining leading positions in industries such as communications technology.

The most important arena will be the competition between the U.S.-led Trans-Pacific Partnership and ASEAN’s Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. The best result for the countries of Northeast Asia would be for the two pacts to end up complementing each other. Taiwan would reap the greatest benefits by joining both. (THN)

Edward I-shin Chen is a professor in the Graduate Institute of the Americas, Tamkang University. These views are the author’s and not necessarily those of Taiwan Today. Copyright © 2013 by Edward I-shin Chen

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