Commentary

Facing up to climate change in Taiwan

(CNA)

• Publication Date：06/28/2012
• Source： Economic Daily News

The torrential rains that have been battering Taiwan are not a freak event. Meteorologists’ calculations indicate that with climate change, the probability of extreme rain events is gradually increasing—and the staggering agricultural and business losses of the last few days testify to their mounting severity.

The Taiwan government should move immediately to assess risks in different parts of the country and coordinate disaster prevention and response measures across regions.

In 2009’s Typhoon Morakot, industrial losses in central and southern Taiwan were equivalent, in monetary terms, to those suffered in the Taipei area from Typhoon Nari in 2001.

But the total precipitation recorded during Morakot was three times that of Nari. If a storm with the force of Morakot hit Taipei, where the population density far exceeds that of Kaohsiung and Pingtung, and 1,000 major industries are based, the damage would be irreparable.

The Taipei City sewer system is designed for 25-year average recurrence interval rainfall events. The ARI is the average period of time between the heaviest rains in a certain location. Since the ARI is an average, a similar or larger rainfall could occur at any time. A 25-year ARI means that there is a 4 percent chance of such heavy rains coming in any given year.

Predictions based on conditions under a more extreme 500-year ARI show that half of those parts of Taipei City less than 50 meters above sea level would be flooded to a depth of over 0.5 meter, especially in the Zhongshan and Neihu districts, affecting huge numbers of people and many high-tech business headquarters.

Although this forecast is based on more drastic conditions, it illustrates the absolute necessity of assessing the risks in important areas and planning response measures. The government should first conduct a prompt regional evaluation of industrial risk, and create a nationwide cultural and industrial database, so as to establish critical rainfall values and damage control measures for each part of the country.

Establishment of local priorities—ahead of a disaster, while it is in progress, and post-disaster—for the mobilization of personnel and equipment, as well as adjustments in industrial supply chains, must come next, accompanied by regular disaster prevention drills.

Current land use should also be studied with regard to regional carrying capacity and vulnerability in the face of future climate change, and national land use planning modified accordingly, so that sectors that are directly or indirectly affected can prepare for changing conditions.

In addition, the carrying capacity of all transportation and water resources infrastructure needs to be reassessed, and the development and use of earthquake-resistant construction methods and materials should be encouraged.

To round out the country’s disaster prevention and response mechanism, a system of typhoon and flood insurance tailored to the needs of each region could be established, to help distribute risks among the government, business and populace as the probability and severity of natural disasters continue to escalate.

Once Taiwan has built up an integrated disaster monitoring, warning and communications platform—and tested it under real conditions—it could be marketed worldwide on the back of the country’s leading position in information technology, especially for use in subtropical regions and the Chinese-speaking world.

Climate change has made environmental disasters one of the most serious global challenges of the future. Taiwan’s government must act now to reduce the potential destruction. (THN)

(This commentary originally appeared in the Economic Daily News June 14.)

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