The Economist Intelligence Unit expects Taiwan’s gross domestic product to grow by 9.2 percent in 2010, the fastest rate in 21 years, according to the Council for Economic Planning and Development Sept. 24.
The EIU report noted that Taiwan’s economy grew by an average of 13.1 percent in the first two quarters of 2010. This stellar performance, the EIU said, “largely reflects the global economy’s return to health, which has translated into an upsurge in Taiwan’s exports and domestic demand.”
According to the EIU report, Taiwan should see a rapid recovery in fixed investment in the months to come, as local companies have expanded their operations in line with increases in domestic and external demand.
Demand growth will remain robust over the next couple of years with improved financing options and rising capacity-utilization rates to support investment, the EIU said.
According to the CEPD, in September several international institutes revised upwards their projections for Taiwan’s growth rate for 2010. The EIU, Goldman Sachs, Citibank and Global Insight all expect Taiwan to grow by no less than 8.4 percent this year, the CEPD noted, adding that the EIU’s 9.2 percent projection is the most bullish among them all.
By contrast, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, a government agency, expects the GDP to grow by 8.24 percent in 2010, CEPD officials said.
CEPD officials said the revised forecasts of September can be attributed to the inking of the cross-strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement that took effect Sept. 12.
An expected increase in private investment in the second half of the year has also led forecasters to reconsider their earlier views, the CEPD added.
“The country’s low interest rates and improved labor market are expected to further boost private investment and consumption in the coming months,” CEPD officials said.
The EIU also projected Taiwan’s economic growth to return to a more sustainable level in 2011, with an average 4.2-percent increase of private consumption from 2010 to 2011. (HZW)
Write to Audrey Wang at audrey@mail.gio.gov.tw