Elections held in December 2002 for the mayors of Taiwan's
two principal cities and for city council seats highlighted the
political differences between the north and the south of the
island and underscored the concerns of voters heading into
the presidential election of 2004.
This past December 7, Taipei and Kaohsiung municipalities held elections for mayor and city council. While presenting some surprises, the elections importantly demonstrated the consolidation of Taiwan's democracy. They also provided the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and "pan-blue" alliance--the sometime cooperation of politicians from the KMT, People First Party (PFP), and New Party--with some new possibilities for the 2004 presidential election.
The reasons for elections separate from other cities and counties date back to the early twentieth century. At that time, the Nationalist government on the mainland established directly ruled municipalities, which had the status of provinces, for major cities. The People's Republic has continued to use this system and now has four directly ruled municipalities--Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Chongqing.
In Taiwan, Taipei gained directly ruled municipality status in July 1967, while Kaohsiung received this status in July 1979. Such status gave increased financial support, but under martial law the central government appointed the mayors as well as the provincial governor. Thus, as they gained "status," Taipei and Kaohsiung lost the right to choose their own leaders. Only in 1994 did citizens again regain the right to vote for the mayors of Taipei and Kaohsiung as well as for the governor of Taiwan Province. With the "freezing" of Taiwan Province, only Taipei and Kaohsiung retained these elections. Proposed electoral reform would bring the Taipei and Kaohsiung elections together with similar elections throughout the rest of the nation, but such plans have yet to be implemented.
The Election Results
Ma Ying-jeou first won election as mayor of Taipei in 1998, defeating incumbent Chen Shui-bian, who later won the presidency in 2000. Born in Hong Kong on July 13, 1950, Mayor Ma has had a stellar political career, which included three years as minister of justice (1993-1996) when he fought corruption in elections and within the government. Perhaps facing a backlash against his activities, Ma served a year as minister without portfolio and another year as associate professor of law at National Chengchi University before reentering politics as a candidate for Taipei mayor.
Ma Ying-jeou won his battle against Chen Shui-bian with the support of then President Lee Teng-hui, who claimed Ma was a "New Taiwanese." There has been considerable debate about the quality of Ma's administration with some claiming that he merely continued Chen's reforms, but Ma has proven very popular among Taiwan's populace.
The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) took a long time to choose Lee Ying-yuan to run against Ma. Born on March 16, 1953, in Taiwan, Lee had spent several years on the blacklist, which prevented him from returning home to Taiwan. When chosen to oppose Ma, Lee was secretary-general of the Cabinet.
The polls had Ma defeating Lee by a huge margin. Mayor Ma tried to keep the campaign on a "clean" or "gentlemanly" level, and this largely occurred, though President Chen Shui-bian and former President Lee Teng-hui, who both campaigned for Lee, had some occasional comments that lowered the tone. Ultimately Ma won reelection with over 64 percent of the vote and a margin of 384,000 votes. Lee Ying-yuan won just under 36 percent of the vote, much better than most published polls had predicted. Many commentators suggested that Lee reached the DPP's base vote of 35 percent in Taipei.
The Kaohsiung mayoral election differed in many ways. The DPP incumbent Mayor Frank Hsieh had won by 4,565 votes in 1998. Some attributed this victory to false tapes claiming that the KMT incumbent, Wu Den-yih, had an extramarital affair. In 2002, the KMT "recommended" Huang Jun-ying, an academic administrator who had served as deputy mayor of Kaohsiung under Wu Den-yih, very late in the election cycle.
Taipei Mayoral Election, 2002
(Turnout=70.61%)
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Kaohsiung Mayoral Election, 2002
(Turnout=71.38%)
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Taipei City Council Election, 2002
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Kaohsiung City Council Election, 2002
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One reason for the delay in recommending Huang Jun-ying was an inability of pan-blue forces to reach an agreement over a joint candidate. Since the PFP clearly had to support Mayor Ma in Taipei, the KMT was prepared to let the PFP take the lead in Kaohsiung. But the PFP never nominated a candidate. Finally, the PFP chairman, James Soong, said that he favored Chang Po-ya, a nonpartisan former mayor of Chiayi as well as minister of health and minister of the interior. Chang, whom President Chen had nominated to be vice president of the Examination Yuan, took offense when she failed to win approval from the Legislative Yuan, primarily because the KMT and the PFP had forbidden its members to vote. For some reason, Chang blamed the DPP and decided to run for mayor of Kaohsiung. Early polling showed Chang had more support than the KMT candidate, Huang Jun-ying, but her popularity soon faded, and the KMT was unwilling to withdraw its candidate for a nonpartisan. PFP Chairman Soong was forced to back KMT candidate Huang Jun-ying only nine days before election day.
The race between Mayor Frank Hsieh and Huang Jun-ying looked extremely tight, according to the pre-election polls. Unfortunately, the campaign turned very ugly with false accusations of corruption, especially by the KMT, ruining the tenor of the election. Ultimately, Mayor Frank Hsieh won reelection by a close margin with just over 50 percent of the vote. Huang Jun-ying won just under 47 percent while the three nonpartisans together polled just over 3 percent.
The two city council elections also differed considerably. In Taipei, the pan-blue forces did well. Twenty out of twenty-one KMT nominees for city council won election, as did eight of seventeen PFP candidates and five of six New Party candidates. In contrast, only seventeen of twenty-seven DPP candidates won, while no Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) or Green candidate won election. "Pan-green"--the alliance of politicians drawn mainly from the ruling party and the TSU--candidates polled less than one-third of the vote. Clearly the pan-blue forces control the new Taipei City Council with thirty-three of fifty-two seats.
In Kaohsiung, the DPP received marginally fewer votes than the KMT, but used its votes more efficiently. Thus, fourteen of eighteen DPP nominees won election, while only twelve of twenty-one KMT nominees won. The PFP did much better in Kaohsiung, with seven of nine nominees winning seats, while the New Party's single nominee lost. In contrast with Taipei, two of seven TSU nominees won. Also, in Kaohsiung nonpartisan independents won nine seats of fifty-eight candidates and nonpartisans polled almost 30 percent of the vote compared with less than 9 percent in Taipei. With sixteen of forty-four seats, the pan-green forces are much better off than in the previous council, but they will have to win over seven of the nine nonpartisans to gain a majority.
To some extent, the election results reflect differences in Taipei and Kaohsiung. Taipei, the national capital, is comparatively wealthy and the home of many mainlanders. As such, it is an important KMT stronghold and this election further validated that finding. In 1998, when he lost his effort at reelection, Chen Shui-bian actually obtained more votes and a higher percentage of the vote (45.91 percent) than when he won against a divided opposition in 1994. The successes of both the KMT and the pan-blue forces in the city council election only further emphasize their strength in Taipei.
Kaohsiung, on the other hand, is at the center of the DPP's heartland. In addition, Mayor Frank Hsieh had the advantage of incumbency, though the earlier city council had very few DPP members. Despite the economic recession, which has hit Kaohsiung particularly hard, and the difficulties of the DPP's central government, Mayor Frank Hsieh should have won fairly easily. The relatively close mayoral result and the KMT's success in obtaining votes in the city council race raises questions for President Chen Shui-bian's government.
The 2004 Presidential Election
Until this election, most speculation about the 2004 pan-blue presidential candidates centered on KMT Chairman Lien Chan and PFP Chairman James Soong. The Taipei and Kaohsiung elections have raised more questions about these two older men and elevated Mayor Ma Ying-jeou into contention.
KMT Chairman Lien Chan would appear to have few assets other than the KMT chairmanship. The extremely wealthy grandson of Lien Heng, a famous historian, and the son of Lien Chen-tung, the first native Taiwanese Cabinet minister, Lien Chan had an "aristocratic" upbringing, which brought him many posts including the premiership (1993-1997) and vice presidency (1996-2000). Yet, despite strong support from President Lee Teng-hui, Lien polled a poor third in the 2000 presidential race with only 23 percent of the vote despite having the KMT organization and money behind him. The ensuing KMT loss, under his chairmanship, in the 2001 legislative elections only raised further questions concerning his viability in 2004 as have his responses to various press inquiries. In addition, Lien will be sixty-seven years old at the time of the 2004 presidential election.
PFP Chairman James Soong also had a very smooth political career based on his background. For example, he was director-general of the Government Information Office from 1979 to 1984, when he served as government spokesman during the Kaohsiung Incident and the following trials. He then held a series of senior KMT appointments culminating as KMT secretary-general from 1989 to 1993. Elected governor of Taiwan in 1994, he visited every township in Taiwan Province several times and raided the provincial treasury for large numbers of projects, thus gaining widespread support throughout the island. After falling out with President Lee Teng-hui, Soong ran an independent candidacy in the 2000 presidential election, winning 37 percent of the vote. If it had not been for the Chung Hsing financial scandal, Soong would have probably won the presidency.
Following his presidential run, Soong formed the PFP to sustain his momentum for the future. In the 2001 legislative election, the PFP won forty-six seats (out of 225) and 18.57 percent of the vote. The PFP also won the position of Taitung County magistrate. Considering its lack of resources, this was an excellent result.
The 2002 elections in Taipei and Kaohsiung raised doubts, however, whether Soong's support dating from his earlier time in the KMT and as provincial governor is sustainable until 2004 when he will be sixty-two. In particular, his party fielded no mayoral candidate in either the Taipei or Kaohsiung races despite the latter being left for him to choose. A few days before the election, Soong knelt down and begged his supporters to vote for Mayor Ma. Most observers found this behavior strange and counterproductive.
In the Taipei City Council election, only eight of seventeen PFP nominees won with 17.56 percent of the vote. In the Kaohsiung City Council election, while seven of nine nominees won, the PFP candidates gained less than 12 percent of the vote. As a mainlander, Soong would have to do well in Taipei and Kaohsiung. Yet, in the recent elections, PFP support appears insufficient to support a major presidential campaign.
Thus, while Lien Chan and James Soong seem to be fading, Ma Ying-jeou has appeared as a new star in the KMT and pan-blue firmament. Articulate and at ease in both Mandarin Chinese and English, Ma appears confident without seeming to be arrogant. In addition, his Taiwanese (Hokkien) has become much more serviceable in the past few years. It remains to be seen whether Ma could challenge Chen Shui-bian in the south, but he clearly has considerable potential. An election-day poll conducted by the United Daily News suggested Ma would be by far the strongest challenger to Chen.
The 2004 presidential election is fast approaching. The DPP can no longer blame a "do-nothing" KMT legislature for inaction. The DPP government clearly needs to improve the economy as well as its policy-making processes. If it does, then President Chen will run a strong campaign for reelection. However, if he fails, much will depend upon unity in the pan-blue camp and the pan-blue nominees for president and vice president. Mayor Ma and perhaps Wang Jin-pyng, the Legislative Yuan president and a KMT vice chairman, would appear to be much stronger candidates than Lien Chan and James Soong. In any case, Taiwan will continue to display forceful and colorful democratic politics to its observers.
J. Bruce Jacobs is the Professor of Asian Languages and Studies at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia, where he is also director of the Taiwan Research Unit.
Copyright (c) 2003 by J. Bruce Jacobs.