Taipei editorial writers made detailed analyses of the upheaval on the Chinese mainland.
The English-language China Post of February 1 said that Mao Tse-tung and Lin Piao are outnumbered by their enemies and that the Peiping regime's days are growing fewer. The paper said:
"For many months Mao and Lin did not make use of the 'People's Liberation Army,' their trump card, thinking that the Red Guards could carry out the 'cultural revolution: Now the situation has changed. For coping with the strong opposition they are encountering in all parts of the country, they have been compelled to call upon the Red army. But the Mao-Lin clique is beginning to see the writing on the wall. The fact is that the army is far from being dependable. Of the eight divisions in Sinkiang province, seven have turned against the Peiping regime. 'Negotiations' reported to be going on may not produce any result. The troops of the Peiping regime are better fed and better clad than the ordinary people, but they also have many grievances against their rulers. Many of them have friends, relatives and members of their families purged by the Communists, and thus can see no reason for supporting the Peiping regime wholeheartedly. If the situation on the mainland further deteriorates, they may come to the conclusion that the best solution is to get rid of the Communists.
"Under the present chaotic conditions on the mainland it is impossible for Mao and Lin to tell how many loyal supporters they have. The truth is that their supporters are greatly outnumbered by their enemies. It is not inconceivable that some day even Lin Piao himself may try to do away with Mao Tse-tung. There is so much chaos in Red China that no one can make an exact estimate of the situation there. When newsmen asked Secretary of State Dean Rusk whether he knew what was happening on the Chinese mainland, he said no and that he doubted whether Mao Tse-tung did either. No one can foresee what cataclysmic changes are going to occur on the mainland two weeks from now. We do know, however, that the situation is likely to go from bad to worse and that the Peiping regime's days are numbered."
The Chung Yang Jih Pao (Central Daily News) of February 3 said that Mao Tse-tung and his followers are engaged in five kinds of struggle:
"1. The struggle against coup plotters in Peiping. Big-character posters have charged Ho Lung, Lo Jui-ching, Yang Shang-kun, and Lu Ting-yi with plotting. They may not be guilty, but they at least have sided with the anti-Maoists.
"2. The military struggle in the northwestern and southwestern provinces. It is reported that high-ranking military officers in Lanchow have participated in secret organizations, that seven divisions in Tihua are restless, that the Shihhotzu garrison has openly raised the anti-Mao banner, and that anti-Mao military activities have been discovered in Szechwan, Kweichow, and Tibet.
"3. The struggle against the anti-Mao masses in the southeastern provinces, which has turned into a workers' and peasants' revolution. Mao Tse-tung is trying to purge the military ranks and then use the troops to suppress the people who seek a better life. The situation is grave.
"4. The struggle for provincial administrative power. Mao Tse-tung is attempting to replace provincial administrations with Paris-type communes. The outcome of this struggle will be determined by that against the masses.
"5. The international struggle against Russia and other countries. The anti-Russian demonstrations in Peiping have continued for a week. The Red Guards have surrounded the Yugoslav embassy. France also has been singled out as a target."
Civil War Possible
The Lien Ho Pao (United Daily News) of January 27 said civil war is probable.
The paper said: "Mainland turmoil of the last two weeks can be compared with the Reign of Terror during the French Revolution. The French terror ended with the killing of Robespierre. Mao Tse-tung's death could have the same result on the Chinese mainland.
"Foreign reporters and diplomatic sources have pointed out that the gun barrel is decisive in the Red Chinese power struggle. An analysis of the mainland situation suggests these points:
"—The power of the Mao-Lin clique stems from the basic military force, some ranking officers around Mao, and the recently reorganized 'Fourth Army of the Red Army'. As Chou En-lai is still on Mao's side, the Red forces in East China (the Third Field Army) are supporting Mao. In Japan this clique is called the 'mainstream'.
"—The anti-Mao forces are being attacked. Mao has eliminated the military influences of Peng Teh-hui, Ho Lung, and Teng Hsiao-ping. He has reorganized the General Staff Department, General Political Department, and the military regions of Peking, Chengtu, and Kunming, and is continuing to purge anti-Mao elements in the navy, air force, and the military regions of Sinkiang and Lanchow. Mao has won the first round.
"—The Cheng Pei-ta-Chiang Ching clique is split, and so is the Lin Piao clique. The Cheng-Chiang clique is attacking the Lin clique and dissents from the Chou En-lai clique.
"—As the headquarters of the anti-Mao forces is located in the northwest and southwest, they may welcome external influence. This accounts for Mao's fear of pushing them too hard. The crisis of civil war remains."
The Shin Sheng Pao (New Life Daily News) of January 31 gave this advice to the United States:
"The United States should tell the Chinese people that as soon as the despotic Communist rule is overthrown, it will give them large quantities of economic aid to improve their livelihood. The Chinese mainland is in a state of anarchy. The United States should respond to a request for assistance from any provincial regime.
"The 700 million people on the mainland are hungry. The United States should ask the Peiping regime to accept its offer of relief. The supplies should be distributed directly to the hungry people. At the least, an international organization should be asked to intervene and the supplies shipped to a Chinese port.
"The United States should make proposals for political settlement of the mainland problem, but only after consulting with the Republic of China."
The Cheng Hsin Daily News of January 31 urged the free world not to let the Russians intervene in the anti-Mao movement in Sinkiang.
The paper said: "Russian intervention would bring greater disaster and a drastic change in strategic situation of the world. Russia's first target would be Sinkiang. Then would come Manchuria and Inner Mongolia. It would not stop until it had seized the manpower and resources of all China and established a sprawling Communist empire astride Europe and Asia."
The English-language China News said February 15 that "until Mao and his brand of Communism are destroyed, education in the modern sense is a dead letter on the mainland."
The paper said: "Chinese Communist high schools have been ordered to reopen March 1. The 'cultural revolution' is being transferred to the classrooms. Students and teachers will be required to devote their time and energy to the denunciation of 'bourgcois thinking' and the worship of Mao-think.
"Anyone who prefers study to propaganda will find that Big Brother is watching in the shape of cultural revolutionary committees and subcommittees. They will be made up of 'revolutionary' teachers and students: in other words, those of proven loyalty to Mao.
"How, then, are schools to carry out their instructions to teach mathematics, chemistry, physics, and foreign languages? Mao-think doesn't provide the answers to equations, give test-tube results, or translate from Chinese into any other language on earth.
"Mao-think is only anti-intellectualism. Any studies pursued under its control are bound to be prejudiced, erroneous, and futile.
"The truth is that the Chinese Communists have not sent students back to school to learn but to be placed under tighter control. Red Guards have turned out to be more of a liability than an asset. Many of the new difficulties facing Mao are attributable to their excesses.
"Chinese Communism educated badly even before Mao-think. Those who have made progress in nuclear science and other modern subjects were educated abroad or on the mainland before the Reds came to power.
"The schools opening March 1 will be jails, reformatories, and centers of authoritarian indoctrination, not institutions of education. Until Mao and his brand of Communism are destroyed, education in the modern sense is a dead letter on the mainland."
Deplorable Statements
Chinese newspapers branded statements of U Thant and Robert Kennedy as "deplorable". The Lien Ho Pao of January 19 said:
"U.N. Secretary General U Thant reiterated his three-point proposal on Vietnam at a press conference January 10 and claimed that suspension of U.S. bombings of North Vietnam must be a prerequisite to peace talks. In addition, he said:
"1. Vietnam is of no strategic importance to the West.
"2. He does not believe in the so-called 'domino' theory, that is, that the fall of Vietnam would doom other Southeast Asian countries.
"3. 'The National Liberation Front' in South Vietnam is not a stooge of Hanoi.
"U Thant is the first person of international stature to make such false and irresponsible statements. Immediate protests came from the United States, Australia, the Republic of China, Japan, the Philippines, Laos, Thailand, Malaysia, and Korea.
"The United States has frequently expounded on the motives for its involvement in the Vietnam conflict. It has dispatched its sons to remote jungles in order to protect Vietnam from external aggression and to preserve world peace. Other nations have similarly committed themselves.
"In his position as international arbiter, U Thant should endeavor to uphold justice and contribute to peace. We deeply regret his statement."
The Chung Yang Jih Pao of February 14 said:
"U.S. Senator Robert Kennedy recently charged that the United States had had no Asian policy for the last 20 years. He recommended that his country befriend the Chinese Communists and adopt a new strategy in Vietnam.
"Secretary of State Dean Rusk disagrees. He said Kennedy did not face the 'central question.' Several leading U.S. newspapers have charged Kennedy's statements may encourage the enemy.
"In Vietnam the United States is fighting for the independence of an ally as well as its own national interest. However, appeasement sentiments still prevail among some American people. In the wake of Ho Chi Minh's reported willingness to meet him in Hanoi, President Johnson is coming under increasing pressures to win the war.
"Most China 'watchers' agree the downfall of the Peiping regime is imminent. Mao Tse-tung's tyrannical rule has been denounced even by the Russians and his other socialist 'brothers.'
"It is unfortunate that Senator Kennedy should assume a position that is both arrogant and ignorant."
Trick of Hanoi
The Lien Ho Pao of February 7 said Hanoi is not sincerely seeking peace.
The paper said: "Hanoi is no longer insisting on the evacuation of U.S. armed forces from Vietnam. This about face is motivated by these considerations:
"Hanoi cannot sustain the continuing U.S. bombing. So it is trying to stop the aerial war and continue the guerrilla conflict on the ground.
"The peace overture is only a fight-fight-talk-talk trick. After a rest, the enemy would return to the battlefield.
"Hanoi also intends to clear its sea supply route in view of the chaos on the Chinese mainland."
The Chung Yang Jih Pao of February 7 said this is not the time for Vietnam peace talks.
The paper said: "President Johnson has expressed his eagerness to negotiate with the Communists. But the United States should not be in a hurry to seek peace. The war is going more favorably for the allied forces.
"Secretary Dean Rusk said the chaos on the Chinese mainland has undermined Peiping's control over Hanoi and that Russia's influence is on the increase. Any peace negotiations should start only after Peiping has renounced aggression in Vietnam.
"However, Peiping's propaganda against the United States has become more strident. Mao Tse-tung and Lin Piao may even step up foreign aggression in an attempt to reduce internal opposition. Until Peiping is dealt heavy blows, it will not accept peace in Vietnam.
"Hanoi has announced it will talk peace only if the United States stops the bombings and other acts of war against the north. This indicates the bombing has been effective. The United States should not give the enemy a breather at this critical moment.
" 'War for peace' is the American policy in Vietnam. How can this policy succeed until the enemy is defeated? North Vietnam is still strong enough to fight back and pour a large quantity of supplies into the south. This is not the time for peace talks."
Peace Via Victory
The Shin Sheng Pao of February 15 said that the United States should attain peace in Vietnam through military victory.
The paper said: "Efforts to seek peace in Vietnam have been resumed. British Prime Minister Harold Wilson and Soviet Premier Alexei Kosygin have jointly issued a communique in London indicating their willingness to try every possible means to bring about peaceful solution of the Vietnam problem. The United States held its fire during the Lunar New Year holidays.
"The United States has some 400,000 men in Vietnam. They have searched the villages of South Vietnam seeking the main forces of the Viet Congo U.S. bombings of North Vietnam have been escalated. The Hanoi regime was forced to make a peace gesture so as to win worldwide sympathy and raise an outcry from the U.S. doves. The North Vietnamese peace offensive also is designed to gain time on the battle ground.
"As a result of its internal crisis, the Peiping regime might permit Hanoi to negotiate with the United States, but not through Moscow. If so, Peiping is repeating the Korea intrigue. Such a truce cannot bring real peace in Vietnam.
"The Pentagon has ordered resumption of the bombings of North Vietnam because Hanoi did not respond.
"The situation in South Vietnam is stable and the war is going well for the United States. Washington should win the peace through military victory."
The English-language China News of February 6 also said that peace can come only through military victory and the destruction of Communism. The paper said:
"President Johnson has made it quite clear that the Hanoi regime is not seeking peace on any except its own terms.
"In case anyone has forgotten, these terms include the departure of the Americans and the Communist takeover of South Vietnam.
"Those responsible for the persistent peace rumors have their own axes to grind. They include neutralists, pro-Communists, anti-Americans, and other mischief-makers. They are not on our side.
"Yet President Johnson is in favor of peace. He said the United States will take almost any step to bring cessation of the war, but that North Vietnam is not of a similar mind.
"We don't want to imply that the U.S. chief executive is guilty of hypocrisy. He is not. The problem, we think, is that President Johnson and the United States have not thought the Vietnam problem through to its one inescapable conclusion.
"Americans do not like war. They have come by world power as an accident of history and geography. They did not seek their present position.
"Additionally, they have great difficulty believing the worst about anyone, and implicit conviction that if you just wait long enough, good will triumph over bad and right will vanquish might.
"Out of our longer experience with Communism, we would like to assure our American friends that a change of heart is as impossible for the Reds as it was for Hitler and his Nazis.
"Germany was knocked out. Victory could not have been won in any other way. Any compromise with Nazism and Fascism and Japanese Imperialism would have led to World War III.
"The same is true of the conflict in Vietnam. Sooner or later the same will be true of Red China. Unless Soviet revisionism produces a miracle of Russian freedom and democracy, the same will be true of the U.S.S.R.
"President Johnson can find no peace by looking toward Hanoi. Peace can come only through military victory and the destruction of Communism."