The Ministry of National Defense (MND) released the 2013 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) March 13 with a view to illustrating for the public and the international community Taiwan’s national defense strategy and the direction of force buildup. Delivered to the Foreign and National Defense Committee of the Legislative Yuan, the report comprises four components: Security Environment and National Defense Challenges, National Defense Policy and Strategic Guidance, Joint Warfighting Capabilities and Preparedness, and Defense Organization and Transformation.
The recent report (the last one being the 2009 QDR) was conducted in compliance with Article 31 of the National Defense Act, the purpose being to manifest the role of the highest strategic guidance for the Republic of China’s (ROC) national defense, and demonstrate a routine and institutionalized process of defense review on a quadrennial basis. In so doing, the MND is able to embody the president’s defense thinking and strategic concepts, review current defense policies, incorporate opinions and suggestions from all orders of society, and reflect public expectations regarding defense affairs.
With many of the same ideas presented in the 2009 report, the 2013 QDR presents national defense policy and strategy based upon the president’s directive of building a “hard ROC” defense force to defend the homeland, deter war, and support the government objectives of pursuing peace across the Taiwan Strait, maintaining regional stability, and creating prosperity for the country. The 2013 QDR illustrates several characteristics.
Innovative warfare
First of all, the concept of “innovation/asymmetry” is gradually being realized. It first appeared in the 2009 QDR as a general idea for the MND in the face of China’s rapid military expansion and the challenges it poses. The 2013 QDR identified several Chinese breakthroughs and advancements in the research and development of weaponry, and considered the application of the innovative/asymmetric concept critical to ROC military strategy and tactics. Therefore, the concept was incorporated into each chapter so as to emphasize the “David and Goliath” nature of asymmetrical force planning.
For example, Chapter 3 of the 2013 QDR elaborates on the future establishment of a sea-mine research center for the purpose of exploring the utility and application of being ready to rapidly deploy sea mines to deter an amphibious assault on Taiwan by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Another example is that the ROC Armed Forces have been preparing for the first wave, or even subsequent waves, of a PLA missile strike by mobilizing missile facilities, hardening bunkers and tunnels, and camouflaging all equipment from radar detection, satellite reconnaissance and surveillance, and so forth. These measures will be implemented in the near future to realize the innovative/asymmetric concept.
Another concept that was raised as a proposal in the 2009 QDR that received a more detailed elaboration in the 2013 report was the shift of the ROC military to an all-volunteer force.
In response to changes in the Asia-Pacific security environment, the development of high-tech weapons systems, and demographic changes in Taiwan that are resulting in fewer able-bodied males being available for military service, the MND is aiming to promote a volunteer system suitable for the transformation to a professional Armed Forces.
Although such a transformation is definitely not an easy task, the MND has demonstrated its determination to reach this goal by meticulously planning the timeframe and process, albeit under tight budgetary constraints. There is a proviso, however, that indicates that the constitutional obligation of military service remains on the books. That is, the one-year service period will be converted into a four-month round of military training so as to maintain a sufficient reserve force. In addition, the volunteer system would be the norm during peacetime, while the option of restoring the conscription system would remain in the event that war breaks out.
The 2013 QDR objectively analyses the current situation regarding the Asia-Pacific security environment, especially as regards security concerns in the Taiwan Strait, and domestic challenges. For regional security changes, the QDR identifies five dimensions, including the rapid growth of China’s military power, the US strategic adjustment to the Asia-Pacific, sovereignty claims over disputed islands and other maritime rights and interests, issues surrounding tensions on the Korean Peninsula, and non-traditional security threats.
Changing security environment
Indeed, the Northeast Asian security environment as described in the 2013 QDR has evolved significantly in the four years since the last review. New leaders in North Korea, Japan, South Korea, and China have since assumed office, while both ROC President Ma Ying-jeou and US President Barack Obama have entered their second and final terms of office. In this regard, the attendant policy readjustment and power redistribution are enumerated as being contributory to the environment of uncertainty in this region.
The fact that China continues to expand its military capabilities, as well as the United States refocusing its global emphasis from one almost solely concerned with the Middle East to one centered on Asia (a policy called the US “pivot to Asia”) have sparked friction and threatened to lead to confrontation not only in regional issues but also in military competition.
The flare-up over island disputes and conflicting sovereignty rights in the East and South China seas illustrates the fierce challenges facing the region and jeopardizes the sea lines of communication. Examples include the dispute between China and the Philippines over the Scarborough Shoal, and escalating confrontation between China and Japan over the Diaoyutai Islands, known as the Senkakus in Japanese. These and other disputes have raised concerns in the countries in the vicinity and caused instability. Moreover, the recent North Korean nuclear test and the advancement of Pyongyang’s missile technology also form the basis for an unstable situation in Northeast Asia. These issues present a multilayered threat to Taiwan’s defense as well.
As for cross-strait problems, the QDR identifies the military threat from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as still being the major challenge to Taiwan security, even though there has been an observable relaxation of cross-strait tensions in recent years. This is because the PRC’s military strategy toward Taiwan is clearly laid out, and Beijing has yet to renounce the use of force against Taiwan.
With regard to domestic challenges, the QDR clearly shows several components that may have the potential to endanger Taiwan security. The problem of defense resource constraints is shown as the first indicator to reveal how serious the financial difficulties are that the Armed Forces face. Unfortunately, this is not the only daunting task that the military has to overcome: the problem of a declining birthrate is another. Given the decreasing level of qualified manpower in Taiwan, the MND needs to reduce its force levels accordingly and improve the quality and professional abilities of individual military personnel in order to meet defense requirements.
Increasing cyber attacks
Cybersecurity is also a deep concern for any modern military. Cyber attacks have become commonplace: a routine the ROC military has to deal with on a daily basis. Prior to a physical strike, a potential enemy may attempt to disable the Armed Forces’ command, control, and logistics networks through cyber attacks, for which related response capabilities have to be strengthened. Therefore, these problems formulate domestic challenges to the MND.
Finally, the report addresses the issues of transparency and civilian control over the ROC military. The release of the 2013 QDR demonstrated the MND’s resolve to pursue deep and continuous reform, in the hope of transforming the military into a small but superb force by way of reviewing the past and planning for the future. Indeed, defense reform is a process of change, and a means of adjustment of organization, culture, and conception. The implementation of an all-volunteer force will serve as an obvious example of this change.
Indeed, the very compilation and release of the report is indicative of the military’s commitment to transparency in defense issues. It demonstrates the consolidation of the concept of civilian control of the military in Taiwan. This concept is a valuable asset of any democratic system, such as that realized in the ROC: an achievement that has been praised by all Western democracies.
The 2013 QDR has earned the support of the public, and it is hoped that the MND will continue its efforts on defense transformation as stated in the content of the report, and make further progress in the face of limited defense budgets and China’s rapid and ongoing military expansion.
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Dr. Chia-sheng Chen is an assistant professor with the Graduate School of International Affairs at Ming Chuan University. He can be reached for comment at cschen222@gmail.com.
Reprinted in full from Strategic Vision for Taiwan Security published by the Center for Security Studies at National Chengchi University’s Institute of International Relations.
Copyright © 2013 by Chia-sheng Chen