But as scholars have become more familiar with the details of the Taiwan development experience, they have found it to be an exception to popularly accepted theories. For example, noted China scholars Richard E. Barrett and Martin K. Whyte have both described the development process of Taiwan as a deviant case from "dependence theory." They say that Taiwan, unlike other developing areas, did not move gradually from being dependent upon the industrially developed world. Instead it joined the ranks of NICs (newly industrialized countries) with unprecedented speed.
The process of social, economic, and political transformation in Taiwan has been reflected in various forms of structural and functional change. The family structure, for example, has gradually changed from the traditional extended family with many generations under the same roof into the so-called stem or nuclear family that usually has only two generations living together.
Urbanization occurred at the same time, with about two-thirds of the population now living in urban areas or commuting to work in the metropolitan areas. The average age among urban residents also tends to be much lower than for the rural population. In addition to these shifts in population distribution, the overall demographic structure of the population has moved toward becoming a "mature society" in which people aged 65 and above account for more than 5.4 percent of the population.
Rising per capita GNP has substantially increased the disposable income per household and changed the traditional pattern of thrifty consumption and high savings into a new pattern of a high absolute level of consumption and an even higher ratio of savings. The increase in disposable income has been so large that residents of Taiwan have become typical modern consumers and yet have remained high savers as well.
The accelerating process of political democratization has also been of great importance in Taiwan's socioeconomic change. This has opened up wide opportunities for people in Taiwan to express their views and has further stimulated changes in the way the government operates.
But as people in Taiwan enter the 1990s and approach the beginning of the 21st Century, they are less inclined to reflect on the success story of Taiwan's last four decades of social, economic, and political development. Instead, they are oriented toward the future, and their expectations are not always positive. Several recent public opinion polls have revealed that people are becoming more concerned about such topics as improving the quality of life and maintaining social order. Such findings indicate that the government and the people are beginning to focus on a range of issues that reflect Taiwan's relatively sudden prosperity.
Beneficiaries of an expensive political decision—by 1993, free, compulsory education will be extended from nine to 12 years.
In the coming decade, Taiwan's socioeconomic structure is expected to continue changing rapidly. Before the 21st Century it will probably be dominated by two economic sectors: high-technology and service industries. The economically active population will gradually be absorbed into these two sectors, with an estimated 45 percent of the labor force employed in service industries by the year 2000. This change in employment patterns will lead to the spread of urban areas throughout the island. As a result of this flow of population into cities, social change will be stimulated further by people's rising expectations and by their growing needs for services.
Sociologists have observed that the emergence of the middle class in Taiwan has significantly contributed to the process of modernization. According to various social surveys, the middle class already accounts for at least a quarter of the population, and some estimates run even higher. The proportion will no doubt continue to increase along with the expected changes in the socioeconomic structure. The growth of this segment of society will have a significant impact on public policy decisions, especially when middle-class people begin paying more attention to deeper social concerns and demonstrate a stronger commitment to social welfare. Middle class participation in social movements and special interest groups is already increasing, which indicates that in the future they will exert even stronger pressures on the government to meet the needs of the populace.
Planned increases in secondary education requirements and the expansion of opportunities for higher education will also contribute substantially to dynamic socioeconomic development. The government has already announced its plan to extend free, compulsory education from the current nine years to 12 years by 1993. This will raise the age for leaving school from 15 to 18. An already high literacy rate will be deepened with qualitatively improved educational training, a process essential for Taiwan's integration into the world of advanced nations.
One sign of Taiwan's modern social development is the prominent role women are playing in the workplace. Due in part to expanded educational opportunities and changes in traditional values concerning working women, the number of career women has increased substantially in the past two decades. This change has gradually altered traditional relationships between men and women in and outside the home. The trend is expected to continue in the workplace and expand further in areas such as government, special interest groups, and other segments of social activity.
People have more money and leisure time, but the 1990s will have to bridge a widening gap between the wealthiest and poorest segments of the population.
Internationally, Taiwan has extended its economic horizons by looking for markets in Europe and other regions of the world. The initial results have encouraged further efforts of this kind, both to broaden trade patterns and to reduce trade frictions with the United States. Taiwan's trade structure will be strengthened by this diversification and integration with world markets, and the further sophistication of Taiwan residents themselves will occur as they begin participating more vigorously in international affairs. These trends will speed adjustments in social values from traditional insular attitudes into more global orientations.
But not all social and economic changes are positive, and there are growing signs that several of them could retard Taiwan's development in the coming decades.
First of all, society must face up to the problem of an aging population. It is estimated that the population aged 65 or older will increase to 8.4 percent by the year 2000. Toward the end of the first decade of the 21st Century, the proportion could increase to more than 10 percent. This change in the demographic structure means that fewer people will be economically productive, and they will bear a greater social burden in caring for the elderly. Prolonged life expectancies have further compounded the problems of health care for the elderly. The growing number of older people both in absolute and relative terms will obviously require more government investment in health facilities, housing arrangements, welfare services, and leisure and recreational facilities.
The aging of the population in the next decade or two will influence the structure of the current social insurance system. Old age benefits, which under current labor insurance programs are paid upon retirement in a lump sum, are already being changed into an old age pension system. This should help to protect elderly people from suffering severe financial crises.
A nationwide health insurance program, another welfare scheme in the planning stages, will meet the growing needs of health care for senior citizens. More welfare services for the elderly in home care and in institutional settings will be included—services currently in short supply. These changes in social delivery systems, though costly, will bring Taiwan in line with what is offered in the world's most advanced countries.
Another problem that has become more worrisome in recent years is the growing disparity between the rich and poor in Taiwan. This is an especially sensitive issue because from 1955 to 1975 the gap had been quite narrow. The trend is clearest in the growing inequality of income distribution, and the changes have already had social ramifications because people complain more about differences in the quality of life. A feeling of relative deprivation among less privileged people is emerging, and their discontent is being expressed in the form of public protests and more active participation in special interest groups and social movements.
Government provision of a comprehensive welfare program to meet the needs of relatively deprived people will be an essential policy development in the coming decades. The Council for Economic Planning and Development has already drafted an outline for social welfare development leading to the year 2000. This comprehensive welfare plan consists of social security and health insurance programs, employment security schemes, and personal welfare services. The costs of supporting such a welfare system will demand a substantial amount of financial resources and political will. The political leadership will obviously have no shortage of challenging decisions to make in the coming decades.— Dr. Chan Hou-sheng (詹火生) is a professor in the Department of Sociology at National Taiwan University in Taipei.