Jackson Lin, chairman of the Taipei Computer Association, who is also general manager of Wang Industrial's Taipei branch, said he expects the Republic of China's computer exports to grow at a rate of at least 100 percent a year for the next five years.
Some insiders, he said, have even predicted that industry growth this year will reach as high as 300 percent, but he thinks this figure too high, although it is possible. Total overseas sales should reach about US$150 million this year, he believes. Computer imports, which totaled about US$50 million last year, are expected to double this year.
Though the Institute for Information Industry has predicted that local computer exports will reach US$300 million this year, Lin said their figure includes a broader range of products.
About 20 percent of Taiwan's computer products are currently exported under trade names of local manufacturers, and Lin believes these producers will experience faster growth than the foreign computer firms, probably exceeding 100 percent annually.
Referring to the main purpose of Computex '83, to help local computer firms expand their overseas markets, Lin noted, "One of the greatest weaknesses of local companies has always been their marketing. The local economy has been, and still is, very manufacturing oriented and has never developed strong overseas sales networks. Marketing will be the key issue for the future of our industry. The Republic of China must stage international computer shows in order to really compete in the international market."
Since the international computer industry is highly competitive, it is likely that a fair number of the 89 local firms displaying their wares at Computex '83 will not be in business when Computex '84 comes around, Lin said. "The large local electronics companies like Sampo and Tatung are waiting to absorb the smaller computer companies when the time is ripe."
"If one looks at it from strictly a manufacturing point of view," he said, "most of the computer firms here should succeed. But the problem is that they need not only manufacturing expertise, but also the capital and the correct concepts with which to build a strong management and marketing team. Management and marketing skills will make or break many of the computer firms in Taiwan."
In order to promote the Republic of China's information industry, at least two computer shows are now held each year. Information Week, staged in the winter, is mostly education oriented, featuring seminars and demonstrations. The Computex exhibits are largely commercial and focus on product demonstrations for buyers.
"Quality computer education is absolutely essential to one of the most important tasks facing our nation-the computerization of business and industry," said the director of the Education & Training Center of the Institute for Information Industry, Dr. C.K. Chou. Information systems, he said, are reaching the status of public utilities in the ROC, and will soon be recognized as equal in importance to the nation's electric power system, water works, and public roads.
Broadly-based computerization and automation in commerce and industry have long been recognized by leading government figures as a key factor in maintaining the competitiveness of Made-in-Taiwan products in a time of economic uncertainty and change. The role of the Education & Training Center in meeting this challenge is to train specialists in a wide range of computer-related subject areas. The largely government-financed center has three classrooms and four laboratories. It offers twenty-six separate courses and has 20 full-time instructors—one of the most extensive computer study programs on the island.
Dr. Chou believes, however, that both the center he presides over, and local computer education programs in general, must be significantly expanded and upgraded to meet the nation's needs for genuinely qualified computer specialists.
The government predicts that by 1986, only 43,300 systems analysts, systems engineers, and hardware designers will be available to fill a demand for 56,000-a shortage of 12,700.
"There are already enough computer schools in the ROC," he said, "but the quality of the teachers and equipment is often too low." So one important function of his Education & Training Center is to train qualified teachers, of which there is an extreme domestic shortage. The center conducts up to thirty workshops for computer science teachers every year, designed to keep them up to date on the latest advances in the field.
The centerpiece of the center's curriculum is a six-month comprehensive course in computer science. It is designed for college and university graduates who did not major in computer or information science. Course tuition is paid for by the National Youth Commission, and is available only to students who pass a rigorous entrance exam. By the end of the 24 hour-per-week course, said Dr. Chou, graduates are qualified as professional programmers. At present, about seventy students are enrolled in the class.
The center also trains business people on a contract basis. A number of local firms have sent their employees to the center for training in specific areas.
Operator training-Some knowledge of the innards can help keep things humming
As part of its efforts to bring computer education to the more remote areas of Taiwan, the center conducts a program in which "teach-yourself' textbooks and microcomputer kits are mailed to students in Central and South Taiwan at a nominal cost.
In addition to offering a wide range of courses, the center is also a major local publisher of computer science textbooks.
In spite of the center's accomplishments and considerable prestige in the field—or perhaps because of them—Dr. Chou believes that expansion of the center is a sharp need. "We would like to be able to provide housing facilities for students, especially for those who enroll in our six-month course," he remarked.
"Information systems are, in a sense, even more important than standard utilities, because as the nation's economy develops, more and more industries and businesses will depend on computers. They are becoming a key factor in every step of production, from research and design through final marketing. A good example is computer-aided-design (CAD). Today, most manufacturers in the Republic of China still rely on such laborious processes as mechanical drawing and so forth, but such methods are time-consuming and, therefore, expensive. The prices of products they are designing will have to be raised, in some cases by a considerable amount. The problem is having enough people qualified in CAD," Dr. Chou stated.
If ROC products do not remain competitive on the international market, he warned, the local economy will face grave difficulties, for it is almost entirely export oriented. The United States can afford to lose its competitive edge, since only a very small percentage of its GNP represents exported goods. Computerization and factory automation (which relies heavily on computers) will be the deciding factors in the economic future of the ROC, he said.
One top foreign computer expert, Mike Naggiar of Hewlett-Packard, said that he considers computer education in the ROC to be among the best in Asia, second only to Japan. He said that computer specialists hired by HP from Taiwan are generally well qualified and require minimal retraining.
Dr. Chou is generally optimistic about the future of computer science education in Taiwan: "The Chinese people have traditionally placed great emphasis on education, and I am sure that computer education is no exception. There are many parents who are willing to make considerable sacrifices to give their children a good education, and this, more than anything, ensures that Taiwan will have enough qualified computer specialists to meet its ever growing needs."
When asked whether the broad-based computerization that the ROC is pursuing so vigorously will result in unemployment, Dr. Chou noted that "there is certainly that possibility but that, nevertheless, the problem can be solved."
Computerization in the larger sense, he explained, includes industrial automation in the form of computer-controlled robots. While a certain number of workers are sure to lose their jobs to a robot or a computer, he said, the problem can be solved in the long run by retraining and transferring displaced workers into the service sector. "In America, two-hundred years ago," he said, "more than 60 percent of the population was engaged in agriculture, but today, the figure is less than five percent. So where did all those people go? They learned new skills and entered industry. Today, in Taiwan, our situation is similar, except that our workers will shift from agriculture and industry into the service sector."
Discussing Chinese language systems for computers, he said the chief problem in designing them is not involved with input methods, but rather with output systems. Though many have criticized Chinese input methods as too slow and awkward, Dr. Chou believes that some of them are quite satisfactory. "The main obstacle is that a Chinese printer today can cost US$100,000, making it affordable only to large enterprises or computer centers. The goal of broad-based office automation will be impossible to achieve until the price comes down considerably."
He mentioned that a local computer expert, P.F. Chu of O-1 Magazine, has developed a Chinese-language printer that will reportedly sell for about US$300. That printer still has a number of technical problems, he indicated, and is still in the prototype stage.