The Drafting and Revision of the Four-Year Plan
During the last four years, owing to the efforts of the Government and increased U. S. economic aid, the agricultural and industrial production of this island has been rising steadily, with its foreign trade expanding progressively, and its economic-financial condition gradually becoming more stabilized. In order to achieve greater economic stability and greater prosperity for this island, the Taiwan Provincial Government assigned in the fall of 1952 to a small number of its top officials the task of formulating a four-year plan for economic development, with the hope of making more profitable use of U. S. aid for the promotion of agricultural and industrial production, and expansion of foreign trade. The objective was to balance production and consumption and the government budget independently of U. S. aid at the end of the next four years. The first draft of the Four-Year Plan was completed in November of the same year.
In the first half of 1953, the Government was still engaged in reviewing and discussing with the Foreign Operations Administration (FOA) China Mission the feasibility of the Four-Year Plan. It was not until July of the same year when the reorganization of the Economic Stabilization Board of the Executive Yuan (ESB) was completed, that the Government officially announced its decision to put the Four-Year Plan into effect. Four Committees, namely, Committee A, chiefly on foreign exchange, trade control, banking and price policy, Committee B on U. S. aid, Committee C on budget and taxes, Committee D on agriculture, and an Industrial Development Commission, were set up under ESB. The functions of Committee D consist in studying and making recommendations on policies and plans relating to agriculture, forestry, animal industry, fisheries and water conservancy and the coordination of these programs particularly in connection with aspects relating to the Four-Year Plan. The Executive Yuan appointed T. H. Shen, a member of ESB, to be concurrently Convenor of Committee D, who in turn recommended the appointment of Vice-Minister of Economic Affairs, Chairman of the Taiwan Fishery Production Committee of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, Commissioner of the Provincial Department of Agriculture and Forestry (PDAF), Director of the Provincial Food Bureau (PFB), Director of the Provincial Bureau of Water Conservancy, and a Chinese Commissioner on the China-United States Joint Commission on Rural Reconstruction (JCRR), to serve members of the Committee, with American observers from JCRR and FDA China Mission and a senior crop specialist of JCRR as concurrent Secretary of the Committee. The members include the heads of all interested agencies of the national and provincial governments so as to facilitate coordination in the planning and implementation of the program.
Soon after its establishment, Committee D was called upon by ESB to revise and work out the details of the agricultural section of the original Four-Year Plan as drafted by the Taiwan Provincial Government in November of 1952. The first step taken by the Committee was to decide upon the policies of the plan and the measures to be adopted with regard to planning and implementation. It found that the functions and duties of some government organizations and government-owned enterprises were sometimes overlapping. Their viewpoints did not always agree with one another, and the personnel and budget of any single agency were too small for it to undertake a big program alone. Without recommending change in the status quo of these agencies, Committee D found that the best thing to do under the circumstances would be to achieve uniformity in matters of policy and close coordination of programs, projects and budgets of all the organizations concerned.
In early August, a total of 61 senior specialists of related agricultural organizations, government-owned enterprises and professors of the Agricultural College of National Taiwan University were invited by the Committee to join its 6 Ad Hoc Working Groups-food crops, special crops, animal industry, fishery, forestry, and water conservancy-for the purpose of revising the original draft plan. Based on the trend of production and marketing, and the status of production factors and government financing condition, a rather complete overhaul of the original plan was completed by the end of September. The main revisions included (1) the development of the forestry, fisheries, animal husbandry, and water conservancy programs which were much too incomplete in the original draft, and (2) a thorough revision of the goals laid down for the crop production programs in the original plan which were considered over-optimistic.
In October when the 6 Ad Hoc Working Groups had completed their work, their conveners were requested to serve on a temporary committee on the budget for the agricultural four-year plan. Under the stringent financial condition of the Government which has to support an active military force of considerable size besides economic development plans, it is always difficult to fix the right proportion of funds for the development of the different programs to the most desirable extent. Emphasis was, therefore, given to the shifting of the budget of each agency from the less important items to the more important ones. JCRR continued its financial assistance to the more important projects. The budgets of the various organizations for projects of a similar nature were integrated in the planning.
The tenure of the Four-Year Plan is supposed to cover a period beginning from 1953 and ending by the end of 1956. Since 1953 is already over, planning and budgeting can now be made only for 1954, 1955, and 1956. The Executive Yuan approved in December the revised production goals (as shown in the attached tables below) and the budgets of agricultural, forestry, fisheries, and water conservancy programs for CY 1954 as screened and submitted by ESB. In brief, production goals of essential items in 1954 incomparison with 1952 as 100 percent are: rice 112, sugar 140, sweet potato 124, peanut 113, tea 111, timber 120, fuel wood 392, deep-sea fish 172, inshore fish 120, pond fish 121, hogs 111, and poultry 111. The economic value of the production increase in the 1954 plan can be calculated on the basis of the current prices of the products included in the plan and will be treated in another article after the harvesting of the crops and the receipt of income from other products at the end of 1954. The production goals for both CY 1955 and 1956 have also been presented by Committee D to ESB for its final review, but they will not be released by ESB until necessary revisions have been made at the end of each preceding year in the light of the situation then prevailing, and after the budget and allocation of funds needed for the implementation of the programs as planned for each year have been approved by the Government.
General Policies and Salient Features of the Agricultural Four-Year Plan
The general policies of the agricultural Four-Year Plan are (1) to bring about a stabilization of prices of agricultural, forestry, fisheries, and animal products through the provision of an adequate supply of these items to meet the needs of the military and civilian population; (2) to increase the export of agricultural, forestry, fisheries, and animal products for the purpose of increasing the revenue from foreign exchange; (3) to reduce the import of agricultural, forestry, fisheries, and animal products on which this island has been dependent for its supply so as to effect a saving of foreign exchange; and (4) to improve the livelihood of the farmers and, at the same time, maximize the farmers' contribution to the economy of the island.
The salient features of the revised production program are listed as follows:
1. Crops
(1) Continuously to step up food crops production so as to ensure a plentiful food supply for local civilian as well as military consumption, to maintain stabilized food prices, and when possible to increase the export of rice, with a view to increasing foreign exchange earnings.
(2) To increase the production of miscellaneous grain crops and special crops (such as wheat, peanuts, soybeans, jute, etc.) so that a laving of foreign exchange may be effected through reduced imports.
(3) To adjust the production and export of such special crops as sugar, tea, banana, pineapple, etc. on a reasonable basis with reference to demand and prices on the international market. While efforts will be made to increase foreign exchange earnings, equal attention will be directed toward safeguarding the interests of the farmers.
2. Forestry production
(1) To import a limited quantity of timber to meet the requirements of the military and essential government enterprises as a step to relieving the pressure of demands on local timber production, to stabilize the prices of timber, and to prevent or minimize indiscriminate logging.
(2) To increase gradually local timber production, while avoiding indiscriminate logging, through improved planning and management of logging activities. High grade timber, except the portion reserved to meet local essential requirements, will be exported in order to offset the amount of foreign exchange expended for the import of ordinary timber for construction purposes.
(3) To strengthen the work of reforestation with a view to rectifying the prevailing situation where reforestation is falling behind logging. In pursuing the work of reforestation, greater emphasis will be laid on giving the existing forests better care, and filling the missing trees in new forested lands, rather than on overambitious reforestation plans, so that better results may be obtained while less efforts and resources will be expended.
3. Fisheries
(1) To utilize fully the amount of US Asia funds available in constructing fishing vessels and shore installments, with the objective of turning the prevailing restricted fishery production consisting mainly of coastal fishery and fish culture into broadened and full-scale production, including deep-sea, inshore, and coastal fisheries and fish culture.
(2) To increase the supply of fish locally for the purpose of improving the diet of the military and civilian population and to save the amount of foreign exchange now being used for the import of dried cuttle and salt fish.
(3) To carryon the construction of fishing harbors and shore installations in order to afford better facilities and opportunities for fishermen.
4. Animal Industry
(1) To continue the extension of improved breeds of livestock, and to strengthen the existing programs for the control of animal diseases in an effort to raise the level of animal production.
(2) To exert greater efforts in rehabilitating, and utilizing the pasture land in highland regions so as to provide a greater quantity of animal feed and make possible a greater production of draft cattle.
(3) To increase the local production of protein feed for the purpose of saving the foreign exchange spent on the import of soy bean, and to arrange for the import of low price a food grains with U. S. Aid funds for use as animal or poultry feed in rural areas, so that a considerable amount of rice may be saved for human consumption and export.
5. Water Conservancy
(1) To proceed more vigorously with the repair of dikes and embankments for flood control so as to afford better protection to local population and their farm lands.
(2) To speed up the construction projects for irrigation and drainage, in coordination with efforts to raise the production of rice and sugar.
(3) To expand the work of planning and surveying so as to lay the groundwork for big-scale irrigation or multiple-purpose projects to be undertaken in the future.
Programs and Projects
A number of production programs based on the fundamental policies of the Agricultural Four-Year Plan has been developed. For every production program there have been worked out (1) working policies, (2) specific projects, and (3) regional production goals.
The rice production program for 1954 one of the most essential programs in the four-year plan, may be taken as illustration. Its working policy is set forth as follows:
(1) An all-out effort is to be made to further increase rice production (1,570,000 M. T. in 1952 and 1,640,000 M. T. in 1953) on Taiwan. In 1954, it is to be increased to 1,760,000 M. T. Besides assuring ample food supply to meet local civilian and military needs, further increases in rice production will make possible a greater rice export.
(2) Further increase of the per hectare yield of rice technical improvements is to be given foremost attention in the rice production program. It should be mentioned that the average rice yield per hectare in 1952 was 1,998 kg. which was appreciably higher than the average yield of 1,273 kg. of 1945, but was still lower than the pre-war record of 2,242 kg. in 1939 by about 10%. It is hoped that the rice yield per hectare in 1954 may be raised to 2,100 kg. as against 2,048, the average of the pre-war peak years 1935-39.
(3) The expansion of rice acreage will be pushed as far as the development of the irrigation program permits. The pre-war highest recorded acreage in Taiwan was 680,000 hectares. The rice acreage in 1952 exceeded 780,000. Further expansion of rice acreage may be brought about by new irrigation projects and improvement of existing irrigation systems.
(4) Improvement of rice quality: Rice produced in the postwar years has been mainly for domestic consumption. Since greater importance is attached to the exportation of rice now than before, improvement of the rice quality through the increase of Japonica rice production is to be emphasized.
(5) Reduction in the loss of grains during drying and storage by encouraging the construction of a greater number of drying grounds by the farmers and the repair and construction of rice warehouses.
(6) The maintenance of a reasonable rice price.
Important Projects of Rice Production Program
In accordance with the above policy, the first step in setting the rice production goal is to calculate the increase of rice acreage through irrigation and other possibilities. The increase of rice acreage through the improvement of irrigation in 1954 over that of 1953 is estimated at 15,000 hectares. An additional 10,000 hectares are expected to be gained by planting paddy and upland rices instead of the usual crops, notably sugarcane; the acreage of 1954-55 cane crop being about 20,000 less than the 1953-54 crop.
Based on the above considerations, the goal to be attained in rice acreage for 1954 is set at 820,000 hectares, showing an increase of 25,000 hectares over that of 1953, which was 795,000 hectares. Other projects are intended to increase the per hectare yield. Through the increase of both acreage and the per hectare yield, it is expected that the production goal of 1,760,000 M. T. of brown rice in 1954 may be realized. The important projects to be carried out are as follows:
(1) Improvement of irrigation: Irrigation projects completed in the winter of 1953 and those to be completed before July, 1954, will result in an increase of about 15,000 hectares of irrigated land.
(2) Increasing use of chemical fertilizer and compost manure: (a) 307,500 M. T. of nitrogen fertilizer, 123.000 M. T. of phosphatic fertilizer, and 16,400 M. T. of potash fertilizer totalling 446,900 M. T. of chemical fertilizer will be distributed for the rice crop of 1954 which is 57,000 M. T. more than the amount distributed in 1953. (b) Granting of subsidies to farmers for the repair and construction of compost houses to increase the production of compost manure will be continued. Twenty thousand more compost houses. in addition to 60,358 already repaired, are to be repaired or constructed by the farmers in 1954.
(3) Extension of improved rice seed: (a) Establishment of demonstration fields for improved vluieties-300 locations for the two crops. (b) Improvement of storage facilities of the seed farms. (c) Multiplication and extension of improved rice seeds in the following quantities:
(4) Improvement of cultural methods: (a) Encouragement of rice planting in straight rows and closing spacing. (b) Encouragement of roguing and weeding. (c) Rice production contests. (d) General extension. education and supervision of cultural improvement methods.
(5) Rice pest control: (a) Rice seeds disinfection and control of rice blast. (b) Control of rice pests (rice borer, hispa, etc.) are to be significantly strengthened. (c) Control of storage insect pests. (d) Procurement of pest control equipment-sprayers and dusters.
(6) Improvement of the drying. storage and processing facilities for paddy rice. (a) Granting of subsidies to farmers for the construction of cement drying grounds. (b) Granting of subsidies to farmers' associations for the repair or construction of rice warehouses. (c) Supervision of loans extended for the construction of rice mills by township farmers' association.
(7) Provision of rice production loans: A total of 100 million NT dollars for the two crops in 1954 including 45 million for the 1st crop and 55 million for the 2nd crop.
Each of the above subjects constitutes a project or a number of related projects and every project is to be carried out in the field down to the farmer at the township or village level. Take, as an example, the propagation of improved varieties of rice. In making plans for this project, besides establishing the total acreage of seed farms to be set up and the quantity of seeds required for the whole island, it is necessary to prescribe the acreage for which seeds are needed at Hsien, township, and village levels.
The programs and projects for other crops, animal industry, fishery, forestry, and water conservancy are developed by a procedure similar to that used in programs and projects for rice production.
The Hsien* and Township Conference
Throughout the later months of 1953, Committee D concentrated its activities on achieving coordination of programs and integration of projects among various organizations through the formulation of working policies and plans for each item of agricultural production and getting all parties concerned at the provincial level to agree on them. This alone, however, cannot ensure that the programs and projects will be carried out successfully in the field. In addition, we must also have coordination and integration in each region in order that any program or project will have the support of the administrative setup at different levels and of the farmers concerned. The provincial production goals must be broken down to regional goals but in this process there must be participation by the local governments so that they will not feel that the projects and goals are forced upon them by the provincial organizations. Before their implementation, therefore, the Hsien governments and township offices must be given an opportunity to express their opinion and suggest revision on the goals and plans drawn by the provincial organizations.
At the request of Committee D, PDAF and PFB called meetings in January 1954 at Taipei to discuss the 1954 crop production programs under the Four-Year Plan. These meetings were attended by chiefs of Reconstruction Bureaus and heads of Agricultural Sections of all the Hsien and municipal governments, representatives from Hsien and municipal farmers' associations, and the heads and senior specialists of the agricultural improvement stations and research institutes. In the meetings the following items relating to the Agricultural Four-Year Plan were discussed and decided upon:
(1) Provincial goals of crop production for CY 1954 as approved by ESB and regional goals and working policies for these crops as proposed jointly by PDAF. PFB, JCRR and related government enterprises with the concurrence of Committee D.
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* Hsien is a political administrative unit.
(2) Projects for crop production to be carried out by PDAF, PFB and other agencies in 1954.
Also at the request of Committee D, PDAF and PFB jointly conducted meetings in each Hsien in early February, 1954, with representatives from the Hsien government, the Hsien assembly, township offices and township farmers' associations to discuss the township production goals and projects for crop production and the steps to be taken for their implementation. Each township office held a meeting in the later part of February with the village chiefs and the heads of small agricultural units of the farmers' association (one unit in each village) to discuss the village production goal and projects for crop production. Their decisions and recommendations were forwarded through the Hsien governments' to PDAF and PFB. (See Fig. 2)
By completing such linear coordination and two-way communication from ESB down to township and then from township back to ESB, the, crop production plans of Taiwan in 1954 were thus finalized by the end of February. For projects which needed an early start in the year. the local governments have already gone ahead with the plans. The crop acreage for rice, sweet potatoes, peanut, etc. adopted at the township meetings were slightly more in some places, and less in others than those proposed by Committee D, but the total acreage of important crops (except sugar cane) for 1954 adopted by the various Hsien slightly exceed the proposed acreage. For example, the total rice acreage agreed upon is 823,111 hectare against the proposed 820,000 hectares.
It should be pointed out that international market prices of agricultural commodities which Taiwan exports has a great effect on crop acreages and production. The sugar production goal of 700,000 M. T. for the 1954-55 crop for instance, has been thus affected. Sugar cane is planted from autumn 1953 to February 1954 and will be harvested from December 1954 to March 1955. The world price of sugar is so low .that the planting acreage will be about 68,000 hectares instead of 93,000 as planned. The yield of sugar per hectare is nine M. T. on an average. Though all-out effort is being made to increase the sugar yield per hectare, the sugar goal of 700,000 M. T. for 1955 can hardly be reached.
The pamphlets printed by Committee D giving the goals, working policies and projects of all items of production have been distributed to provincial, Hsien and township agricultural workers.
A coordinated and integrated system of supervision and inspection over the implementation of the rice program on the provincial, Hsien and township levels is being organized by Committee D. The crop-reporting system of PDAF and PFB has been strengthened with the help of JCRR; it calls for a report on the status of crop and animal conditions on a monthly basis.
For the production of animals, fishery and forestry, and the water conservancy program under the Four-Year Plan, similar integration and coordination of programs and projects of various organizations is also taking place.
Conclusion
There are some definite limitations on the implementation of the agricultural four-year plan. The uncertainty of international market prices of the agricultural products which Tai. wan exports constantly threatens to disrupt the production plans here. Under the stringent financial condition of the Government, it is always difficult to appropriate enough fund for the development of the programs to the most desirable extent. Lastly, the strengthening of some of the government agencies concerned is apparently needed if the programs. are to be executed efficiently.
Vigorous support has been given to the Four-Year Economic Plan by President Chiang, Premier Chen Cheng and Governor O. K. Yui. They consider it a major undertaking of the Government to further improve the living condition of rural Taiwan following the land reform and the free election of city mayors and Hsien magistrates by the people. A good start has been already made in the collateral development of industrial and agricultural programs. Enthusiastic and active cooperation has been given to the agricultural four-year plan by various agricultural organizations, governments on all levels, and the mass of farmers. Last but not least, deep interest has been shown and valuable assistance given by the FOA mission and JCRR. JCRR has extended all possible facilities and technical counsel to Committee D, without which Committee D could not have accomplished what it 'has accomplished thus far.
At this moment, it may be too early yet to foretell the success or failure of the agricultural four-year plan. However, with determination on the part of the Government and wisdom, cooperation, coordination, and hard work on the part of the agricultural organizations concerned, and the continuous support of U. S. economic aid, there is every reason to believe that it will be successful.