After his narrow victory in Taiwan's presidential election in 2000, Chen Shui-bian has faced a difficult first year in office. How well has his administration done, and what still needs to be accomplished to improve its record?
For the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) Chen Shui-bian, winning Taiwan's 2000 presidential election was the easy part. Pushing pet programs through an opposition-led legislature, battling a troubled economy, trying to deal with an uncommunicative neighbor, and dismantling over fifty years of Kuomintang (KMT) influence has proven much more difficult. Since taking office last May, Chen has faced a number of crises. One of the most serious involved the fourth nuclear power plant, which he had campaigned against during the election. He stopped work on the project, but was forced to restart it following a protracted battle that included talk of his impeachment.
Such events have served as a learning experience for the president, and during the course of the year Chen has had some success in implementing his policies. One area is the administration's fight against black-and-gold politics, a common euphemism for corruption and gangster influence in politics; another is the continuing stability across the Taiwan Strait, no mean feat for someone with such a strong pro-independence background.
"I voted for Chen Shui-bian because the previous government couldn't effectively get rid of Taiwan's black-and-gold politics," says Chen Mei-tsu, a housewife from Tainan in southern Taiwan. "I believed that only the DPP could seriously deal with the problem." She was not alone in this belief. The DPP campaigned heavily on a promise to eradicate corruption and underworld dealings in politics, something the KMT had vowed to do for years but failed. Chen Shui-bian narrowly edged out independent candidate James Soong, a former KMT heavyweight and the current chairman of the People First Party (PFP), and was well ahead of KMT candidate and current party chairman Lien Chan.
How well is the Chen administration doing with its fight against corruption? Various polls indicate that Minister of Justice Chen Ding-nan, who has been charged with the daunting task, has a higher approval rating than any other Cabinet member. "Basically the minister is diligent and has very little political baggage," notes Hsieh Chi-ta, a New Party lawmaker and convener. "He's decent, but he can be hardhearted. In his eyes, the law is the law. He's quite suitable for the post of justice minister."
As a part of its initial plans to fight black-and-gold politics, the Cabinet established a nine-member center run by the Ministry of Justice in July 2000. Investigation teams headed by the prosecutors' offices at four locations around the island were also set up to look into cases. Between July 2000 and March 2001 over 1,200 people were indicted for graft scams involving as much as US$194 million. People around Taiwan have started waking up to the news that political figures are no longer a privileged group immune from investigation. Seven lawmakers, four mayors and magistrates, fifty-seven councilors, and twenty-nine township chiefs across party lines have been prosecuted. The anti-graft crusade is so impressive that in February the US Department of State noted in its report on Taiwan's human rights that during the year 2000, "political and personal pressures on the judiciary decreased significantly" under the new administration.
"In fact, the justice minister doesn't always receive the full support of even his own party. He's shown that he's totally impartial," Hsieh Chi-ta notes. She adds that the minister cannot take full credit for recent developments because judicial reform was launched twelve years ago, but "Chen Ding-nan is praiseworthy. If he wasn't a good official, things would have gone much less smoothly."
Social welfare is another area where the government is expected to perform well. President Chen's "333" plan was a campaign perennial. It included low-interest loans for first-time home owners, free medical care for children under the age of three, and a monthly allowance of NT$3,000 (US$88) for people over the age of sixty-five. While the first part of the plan has been implemented, budgetary concerns have hampered progress on the second and third provisions. But in May, Minister of the Interior Chang Po-ya announced that the government would in fact implement these plans next year despite the expense. The programs are expected to cost NT$16 billion (US$470 million) and NT$1.7 billion (US$50 million) respectively.
Other areas that the DPP vowed to change included the island's education system. Education Minister Ovid Tzeng has established new departments as well as graduate programs in Taiwan literature at four national universities, and says more focus will be put on the study of local culture and history. An unprecedented NT$720 million (US$21 million) has been earmarked for the construction of graduate schools at national universities and colleges. And as of this year, the annual joint public senior high school exam was abolished, in part a culmination of initiatives by the KMT.
Another area where President Chen has won praise is his determination to ease the Taipei-centric regionalism that has spawned resentment among those living outside the capital. Chen, who was born in Tainan, chose to host a number of high-profile events in the southern port city of Kaohsiung instead of Taipei. He also shifted the public's attention to other parts of the island by holding state banquets for three visiting presidents from Dominica, Liberia, and Burkina Faso in Ilan, Taichung, and Kaohsiung, respectively.
Cross-strait stability was a major consideration with voters, and here the president is judged to have performed well--or at least better than expected. Since winning the election, Chen Shui-bian has made a number of conciliatory gestures toward China to convince the public that his pro-independence history would not affect his ability to improve relations with Beijing and to ensure stability in the Taiwan Strait. During his inauguration speech on May 20, 2000, Chen vowed not to declare independence, not to change the name of the ROC, not to include the so-called "state-to-state" policy in the ROC's Constitution, and not to hold a referendum on the issue of independence or unification.
The speech was largely welcomed by the international community and opposition members. "It represented a change in the DPP's otherwise dangerous argument concerning Taiwan's national status," notes Lin Fong-cheng, secretary-general of the KMT's Central Committee.
"To avoid immediate conflict, the president prepared for the speech very carefully," says David J.C. Chung, PFP secretary-general. Given the political situation, however, President Chen obviously could not win trust from the mainland with one speech. In fact, Beijing has made little response to his overtures, and instead has decided to continue observing him closely. Despite the absence of any favorable reaction, Chen went on to propose integration with China in his New Year's Day speech, which was expected to further reduce hostility across the strait. "We've tried hard not to give any room for suspicion that we're provoking Beijing," notes Lin Chong-pin, vice chairman of the Cabinet-level Mainland Affairs Council (MAC). "The cross-strait relationship over the past year can be described as somewhat calm."
To enhance mutual understanding and build a stronger relationship with China, Lin says, the government has engaged in a proactive policy of exchange. The most notable example is the January 1, 2001, launch of the three "minilinks" between two of Taiwan's offshore islands and the mainland. (The three links refer to direct communication, trade, and transportation ties.) Restrictions keeping mainland journalists from being based in Taiwan were lifted in November 2000, and the govern ment is currently reviewing the possibility of allowing mainland tourists to visit the island.
The previous administration's "go slow, be patient" policy that limits Taiwan investments in China is also currently under review. In late May, the Cabinet opened the doors for local banks to set up representative offices in China where they will be able to conduct market surveys and offer consulting services. And while banks are not permitted to offer their banking services on the mainland, the Cabinet has lifted restrictions on offshore banking units from handling cross-strait business transactions.
Chen's critics say that the government must nevertheless do more to reopen channels of communication with Beijing. "Over the past year, the confrontational atmosphere across the strait has continued even though there hasn't been any notable conflict," notes the PFP's David J.C. Chung. "Taiwan is still in latent crisis and I can't see any progress in the government's policy on cross-strait relations."
The KMT's Lin Fong-cheng also gives the DPP-led government poor marks in this regard. "You can't just say you want to improve cross-strait relations without any concrete measures. It's not enough to just talk about the possibilities while the stalemate continues." He cites the "three big links," direct transportation, communication, and trade ties between Taiwan and China, as an example. Prior to taking office, Chen Shui-bian suggested that the establishment of the three links would soon take shape. "That was said in a perfunctory manner. If cross-strait talks aren't resumed, it will be impossible to establish any links," Lin says.
Another bone of contention for the KMT is that President Chen has not held a meeting of the National Unification Council (NUC), which was established by former President Lee Teng-hui, since taking office. Instead, the DPP leader has formed an advisory group which acts like a think tank on cross-strait affairs. "Chen said in his inauguration speech that there was no need to discuss whether the NUC should be dissolved or if the Guidelines for National Unification should be abolished," Lin Fong-cheng says. "This means that the council should continue to exist and the president should convene an NUC meeting as soon as possible."
By neglecting the NUC and establishing an advisory group, Chen has sought to eliminate unification as Taiwan's only choice for its future, which had been the KMT's strategy for dealing with China. "This runs counter to Beijing's precondition for cross-strait talks," says Lin Chong-pin of the MAC. "But Taiwan imposes no preconditions for the resumption of cross-strait talks. So the current situation is very regrettable." The lack of reliable and consistent communication across the Taiwan Strait is risky for both sides and the region, he adds. If a mid-air collision were to occur between two planes from Taiwan and China, like the one that took place in April between US and Chinese aircraft, it could trigger war. Lin also notes that Beijing's stonewalling of Taipei will only lead the two sides further away from unification. "Before Germany was unified, there were many discussions between the East and the West. If Beijing truly wants eventual unification, what they are doing is counter productive."
Some observers believe that Beijing's ideology is keeping it from negotiating with the DPP administration and that if James Soong or Lien Chan, both supporters of unification, had been elected the situation across the strait would be less volatile. But others, including Lin Cho-shui, a DPP legislator, believe that President Chen's election victory has far-reaching benefits for cross-strait relations. "The biggest problem with Beijing is that they tend to have impractical expectations of Taiwan," Lin says. "So when the worst scenario becomes a reality, they begin to look at cross-strait issues in a more practical light." China's hard-line factions and military were vehemently against a Chen victory, but their opinions were not adopted by the mainstream nor were their fears incorporated into Beijing's core policies on Taiwan. "There has been little intimida tion, either militarily or verbally, from Beijing over the past year. China deserves some credit for this," he adds.
President Chen's performance on cross-strait relations has predictably earned him criticism from opposition members as well as those within his party who support Taiwan independence. Lin Cho-shui believes that two of Chen's key speeches, delivered at his inauguration and on New Year's Day respectively, were meant to reduce division on the home front between supporters of unification and of independence. But instead the strategy has backfired, fueling a more aggressive retaliation from both sides, Lin says.
Although Chen's election victory is said to have inspired the pro-independence faction, most of the island's residents prefer to maintain the status quo. A poll conducted by the China Times, a Chinese-language daily newspaper, three days prior to the end of Chen's first full year as president showed that 43 percent of respondents supported the status quo, followed by 20 percent for unification, 14 percent for independence, and 11 percent for the "one country, two systems" formula proposed by Beijing. (The remainder had no opinion or did not respond to the question.)
Another factor that Chen has had little control over is the changing international political climate, particularly in the United States. The Clinton administration was intentionally vague when addressing the issue of defending democracy on the island, but the Bush government has taken a tougher stance against China, DPP lawmaker Lin Cho-shui notes. In April, President George W. Bush allowed the biggest arms sale to Taiwan since the 1992 sale of 150 F-16s, and allowed President Chen Shui-bian to meet with politicians in New York City and Houston while stopping over on his recent tour of Latin America. These friendly gestures will boost Taiwan's confidence when it negotiates with its neighbor in the future. "There's no reason why we should give in to the unrealistic demands of China. This will only encourage Beijing to repeatedly test our limits," Lin adds.
But it may be premature to celebrate over Washington's apparent change of heart, given China's ever-growing economic clout. In addition, Vermont Senator James Jeffords' decision to leave the Republican Party has given the Democrats an edge in the Senate, which may have some influence on Washington's China policy. Some also argue that the United States should not antagonize China by cozying up to a DPP president, because that would not be conducive to easing tension across the strait. "President Bush worries me. He doesn't know what disaster he might bring to the world with a few careless words," says the New Party's Hsieh Chi-ta.
History has shown, however, that relations can improve despite seemingly low odds. "It's a myth that cross-strait relations will flounder if Taiwan receives support from the United States," asserts Lin Cho-shui, noting that a year after the United States sold F-16s to Taiwan in 1992, two semiofficial organizations representing Taiwan and China respectively held their first meeting in Singapore. "They met again two years after China conducted missile tests in the Taiwan Strait in 1996," he adds. "Beijing tends to treat Taipei according to the realities they face."
Those realities seem to favor Taiwan--in the long term. China is currently a stronger force, both politically and economically. "But we shouldn't ignore the bigger picture," urges Lin Chong-pin of the MAC, referring to growing global trends such as the spread of democracy, the availability of technologies that disseminate information, and the move toward economic interdependence, which will force Beijing to think twice before using brute force to solve problems. "So we haven't lost anything. You'll find that time is on the side of any government that represents the people."
Chin Heng-wei, a political commentator and editor-in-chief of Con-Temporary Monthly, a Taiwan magazine covering social issues, thinks the island has reason to feel confident and safe. Taiwan did not become a real democracy until after the KMT peacefully handed over power for the first time following the 2000 election, Chin says. "It's obvious that the Bush administration supports President Chen and looks at China as its arch-rival. The alliance of democracies headed by the United States against undemocratic nations is taking shape, and Taiwan is a part of this."
Beijing leaders are beginning to discover that it is not easy to intimidate the Bush administration. Also, if China were to launch a war its main opponent would be the United States, not Taiwan. "I don't think China will attack Taiwan for many reasons," Chin says. "For one, a country that's devoted to economic development won't initiate a war. And if China had put Taiwan at the top of its priorities, they would have attacked us soon after former President Lee Teng-hui made his 'special state-to-state' comment."
There is, however, no guarantee that an attack will not take place. And in the event of a military conflict across the Taiwan Strait, no one can be sure how committed the United States would be. In any event, Chin believes that President Chen should revise his cross-strait policy, given Washington's shift in its strategy of dealing with China. Lin Cho-shui concurs, noting that the United States' favorable treatment of Taiwan should encourage Taipei to make its China policy less ambiguous and more assertive. "Taipei wants to project friendliness toward China at the same time," he adds.
In May while he was in Guatemala on a state visit, President Chen came out with a five-point policy aimed at improving cross-strait ties. He vowed not to provoke China, not to misjudge the situation, not to allow Taiwan to be used as a bargaining chip, not to engage in a zero-sum game, and not to cease in his efforts to improve cross-strait relations. However, unless Taiwan concedes that it is a part of China, no gesture is considered friendly by Beijing's leaders. For the DPP-led govern ment, it appears that the cross-strait issue is a much tougher battle than fighting black-and-gold politics.