The first two years of the Chen Shui-bian administration
have been marked by stability in cross-Strait relations,
improvements in the international arena, efforts to
reenergize a sluggish economy, and action to fight
corruption and gangster influence.
With only half of the four-year presidential term remaining until the next Inauguration Day in May 2004, another period of pre-election politicking will soon be beginning. Although he has not yet formally declared his intentions, President Chen Shui-bian is expected to seek reelection as the nominee of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). His opponents are likely to include James Soong of the People First Party (PFP) and Lien Chan or another candidate representing the Kuomintang (KMT)--unless those two parties can reach some agreement on a partnership.
Since all of the candidates will be focusing on the president's performance and the nation's well-being during the course of this administration, it may be instructive to review the major events of the past two years as a guide to some of the issues that may arise.
Cross-Strait Relations. Chen Shui-bian set the tone for his administration's approach toward mainland China at the onset, seeking to assuage Beijing's anxieties about the DPP's pro-independence origins. The new president used his inaugural address to pledge that he would not declare independence, change the name of the country, or promote a referendum on the independence versus unification issue, as long as the PRC refrains from engaging in military action against Taiwan. He has followed up with other expressions of goodwill, such as offers to meet with Chinese President Jiang Zemin.
The administration has also taken various practical steps to try to reduce tension and increase the level of cross-Strait contact. One of these was adoption of the "three mini links," which went into effect at the start of 2001, opening up the movement of goods and people by ship between the outlying islands of Kinmen and Matsu and nearby ports on the mainland. Another measure was a decision to allow Chinese tourists to enter Taiwan, starting with groups of visitors from among PRC citizens living overseas.
Opposition politicians have criticized the government for letting Beijing's insistence that Taiwan accept the "One China" principle become a barrier to the resumption of cross-Strait talks--broken off by Beijing in 1995 during the Lee Teng-hui administration. They argue that without sacrificing its self-interest, Taiwan could "return to the 1992 consensus" of agreeing to disagree over the definition of One China. The Chen government, however, denies that any such explicit compromise was reached in 1992, and maintains that talks should properly be held without any preconditions.
Early this year, several high-ranking PRC officials made statements that were viewed as more conciliatory toward Taiwan than in the past--such as the comment that members of the DPP are welcome to visit China if they are not hard-core independence advocates. The overtures, following the strong showing by the DPP in last December's legislative elections, were widely viewed as a sign that China may now be concluding that Chen Shui-bian and his party are a political force that cannot be ignored.
Foreign Affairs. The major development was Taiwan's admission to the World Trade Organization (WTO) after a frustrating twelve-year wait. The government is now pushing to gain observer status for Taiwan in the World Health Organization, and has been gratified by resolutions of support passed by the European Parliament and the US Senate.
Continuing Lee Teng-hui's practice of engaging in personal diplomacy, Chen Shui-bian made two trips overseas, visiting a total of eleven countries in Latin America and Africa. Due to Beijing's pressure, he was unable to obtain a visa to Denmark to attend a meeting of Liberal International, an organization of liberal political parties that had awarded him its Freedom Prize for 2001. But Vice President Annette Lu succeeded in attending the organization's 2002 meeting in Hungary in March.
American officials have described relations between Taiwan and the United States as better than at any time since the severance of formal diplomatic ties in 1978. The cordiality is due in part to US appreciation of Chen Shui-bian's moderate posture toward mainland China, but even more so to the shift in Washington's China policy--away from viewing the PRC as a potential "strategic partner"--since George W. Bush entered the White House. Ignoring Beijing's objections, the United States permitted Chen to make leisurely transit stops in New York and Houston, including meetings with members of Congress, during his 2001 trip to Latin America.
In order to reduce the likelihood that immigration officials in other countries would confuse Taiwan's Republic of China passport with that of the PRC, the government early this year decided to print the text "Issued in Taiwan" at the bottom of the passport cover. Some critics viewed the step as inching toward a change in the national title.
Defense. As part of the closer military cooperation developing between Taiwan and the United States, the Bush administration agreed to sell more advanced weaponry to Taipei than had been done previously. The approved items, which will help counter Beijing's ongoing military buildup, include four Kidd-class destroyers, twelve Orion antisubmarine surveillance aircraft, and eight diesel-powered submarines.
Early in his term, President Bush pledged that the United States would do "whatever it takes" to ensure Taiwan's security. On his trip to Asia in February this year, he spoke out in both Tokyo and Beijing about his government's commitment to the island's defense. A month later, Washington permitted Defense Minister Tang Yiau-ming to participate in a privately sponsored strategic conference in Miami, where he met with some prominent US officials.
The Economy. The biggest challenge for the Chen administration has come on the economic front. A biting recession put economic growth into the negative column in 2001 for the first time, and unemployment surged to record levels above 5 percent. Business confidence plummeted. Although the sagging international market was clearly responsible for much of the domestic decline, businessmen--and the public--were dismayed by the contrast between Taiwan's economic malaise and the apparently vigorous growth still being registered in China, especially in the Shanghai area. Industrialists complained that the "Go Slow" policy that Chen Shui-bian inherited from Lee Teng-hui--a policy of discouraging large-scale, infrastructure, or high-tech investments on the mainland--was thwarting their companies' ability to compete.
In the summer of 2001, Chen convened an Economic Development Advisory Conference to devise means of reinvigorating the economy. To allay suspicion that the conference might be used only as window dressing, the president pledged that the government would implement all measures that were adopted by consensus. The delegates, consisting of 120 prominent businessmen, scholars, and government officials, as well as political figures from various major parties, met over the period of a month in five specialized panels and then for three days of general assembly.
A total of 322 recommendations were adopted by consensus, including overhauling the taxation system, relaxing restrictions on overtime work, revising regulations governing mergers and acquisitions, and encouraging the entry of foreigners and mainland Chinese for employment in technical capacities. Receiving the greatest attention was the decision to abandon the "Go Slow" policy on investment in China in favor of the more lenient one of "Active Opening, Effective Management." The conference appeared to improve investors' spirits, and the previously depressed stock market began a steady rise.
To address the need for modernizing the financial system, President Chen called the Legislative Yuan back into special session in the summer of 2001 to pass a package of six reform bills. Considered the most important were a statute establishing a Financial Reconstruction Fund to assist with the reorganization of troubled banks and another to permit the creation of financial holding companies providing a broad mix of financial services. Besides the finance-related bills, the Legislative Yuan enacted numerous other laws requested by the government to bring Taiwan into compliance with WTO requirements.
While it is expected to stimulate Taiwan's trade on balance and to benefit consumers by bringing lower prices, WTO membership will also pose a threat to some economic sectors--primarily agriculture--that previously enjoyed certain protection against imports. The relevant government agencies have been implementing measures to cushion that transition.
Law and order. Justice Minister Chen Ding-nan has been among the cabinet members rated most highly by the public in opinion polls, due to his aggressive campaign against "black gold"--shorthand for corruption and gangster influence in politics and the economy. The ministry has set up a special task force to deal with such cases, and has obtained legislation to bar those previously convicted of underworld activity from becoming candidates for elective office and to regulate conflicts of interest by public officials. The legislative elections of December 2001 were considered the cleanest in Taiwan's history because of the ministry's efforts to crack down on vote buying. Among measures to promote human rights was repeal of the controversial 1944 Statute for the Punishment of Banditry, which had in the past been subject to abuse.
Labor Affairs. The work week was reduced to 42 hours on average beginning in 2001, and a revised Employment Services Act passed in 2002 better safeguards the rights of foreign workers and more clearly defines the responsibilities of their employers. A landmark Gender Equality Employment Act that took effect on March 8 this year aims to ensure that women receive fair treatment in the workplace.
Others. The Chen administration has sought to accord greater recognition to other parts of Taiwan aside from the capital city of Taipei. A separate inaugural ceremony was conducted in Kaohsiung in southern Taiwan, and that port city, the island's second largest population center, was also the scene of the 2001 Lantern Festival. When Chen Shui-bian received the president of the Dominican Republic in March 2001, the welcoming ceremony was held in Ilan on the northeastern coast. Chen has also attempted to demystify the Presidential Office Building by opening it to tour groups twice a week.
In virtually every policy area during most of the first half of the presidential term, deliberation of the issues in the Legislative Yuan regularly degenerated into acrimonious exchanges between lawmakers on opposite sides of the aisle. The establishment of a DPP government may have been a historic example of the democratic transfer of power through the ballot box, but the KMT, after more than half a century as the ruling party, was unready to be relegated to the role of "loyal opposition" and sought to stymie the administration whenever possible. The DPP, for its part, was inexperienced in handling the reins of government and occasionally stumbled badly. In what most members of the party now concede was the worst mistake, the government felt obliged to carry out one of Chen Shui-bian's campaign platforms--ridding Taiwan of nuclear power--by abruptly canceling construction of the island's fourth nuclear power plant, already one-third completed. The KMT-dominated legislature, which had approved the project, was outraged. It kindled a constitutional crisis by threatening to recall the election of the president and impeach the premier. After intervention of the judicial branch helped to resolve the crisis, construction of the project was resumed--but not before the new government had damaged its public image and squandered considerable political capital.
Memories of that episode are now fading, and the political environment was further altered by the outcome of the December 2001 legislative elections. In contrast to the KMT's previous domination of the Legislative Yuan, the lawmaking body is now nearly evenly divided between the alliance of the DPP and the Taiwan Solidarity Union on one side (dubbed the "green camp") and the combination of the KMT and the PFP (the "blue camp") on the other. The legislative process is expected to be marked by shifting coalitions depending on the nature of the issue at hand.
As each party tries to position itself in the run-up to the next presidential contest, thoughts of blocking its opponents are likely to take second place to leaving a positive track record to impress the voters.