2025/02/27

Taiwan Today

Taiwan Review

Foreign Views

October 01, 1969
Atlanta Journal - Realistic Russians

The Atlanta Journal said August 28: "Reports that the Russian leadership is seriously considering a bombing attack on Red China's nuclear installations shows once again that the men in the Kremlin are hardnosed realists.

"Red China is recognized as the greatest potential threat to world security.

"And with its proliferating population and its poverty, the men in Peking frankly acknowledge that (Red) China has less to lose from a nuclear war than other nations. They say, with equal frankness, that (Red) China could better survive a nuclear war than any other nation and they do not view a nuclear war as necessarily catastrophic. The 'unthinkable' to them isn't.

"The only real limitation on Red China at this point is perfecting a delivery system for its nuclear weapons.

"And while the (Red) Chinese work assiduously on such a system, the United States and the Soviet Union nervously watch and wait.

"Always the optimist, the United States takes the position that 'it'll be a few more years' before they perfect such a system and perhaps by then the millennium of peace will have descended upon us all.

"The Russians take a more realistic point of view. Why sit around and wait for the (Red) Chinese to strike the first blow at a time that suits them best? Why not destroy that nuclear capability before it gets any bigger?

"But even with tiny Czechoslovakia the Russians moved with caution. They lined up solid support from their satellites before moving in on the Czechs.

"Before undertaking an attack against the (Red) Chinese nuclear installations they will certainly have to obtain pledges of undeviating moral support, if nothing else, from the bulk of the Communist world.

"And such an attack would be costly in many ways. The (Red) Chinese would not sit on their hands and watch quietly while the Russian bombers tore apart the nuclear facilities.

"As we sit patiently and wait for the (Red) Chinese to launch an attack in their good time, it is intriguing to think that the realistic Russians might be making other plans." (Full text)

Yorkshire Post - Implacable enemies

The Yorkshire Post said August 29: "Pravda, the Moscow Communist party organ, issues a warning that if war breaks out with (Red) China, every continent may be involved. That may very well be true. The question really is: why does Pravda choose the present time to state with emphatic gravity something that is a more or less obvious possibility anyhow?

"First of all, nobody imagines that if (Red) China is directly involved in war at this historical stage, her enemy is in the least likely to be any Power other than Russia. No other State has the slightest interest in war with (Red) China. Years ago there were powerful elements in the United States which thought that an American 'pre-emptive strike' against (Red) China would be a good idea. If those elements still think so, they are no longer so powerful. There is hated and bitter, irreconcilable enmity only between (Red) China and Russia. If war breaks out in the Far East it will in the first place be between those two.

"Secondly, nobody seriously imagines that (Red) China would start such a war. She may well have provoked the incidents last spring on the Ussuri river border between Chinese Manchuria and the Maritime Province of Siberia. But she almost certainly was not the instigator of the later and more serious clashes on the Kazakhstan-Sinkiang frontier in Central Asia. Moreover, despite all the fire and smoke breathed out by the Chinese Red Dragon during the past decade, it has clearly been suffering such severe internal discomfort that it was in no condition to fight a major adversary unless forced to do so. Even in the brief conflict with India, the (Red) Chinese Army smartly drew back within its own borders.

"Russia is quite a different story. A year ago in Czechoslovakia she showed that she had no compunction about savagely attacking another Communist country so long as she was sure that she had an overwhelming advantage in strength. She has shown signs of believing, however, that she now enjoys an overwhelming advantage in strength over everybody else except the United States. It may be that she also thinks the United States is so weary of the Vietnam war that she will go to great lengths to reach a settlement with Russia-and anyhow would not lift a finger to help (Red) China.

"In that case, however, why say that a war involving (Red) China could spread to every continent? The terms of the very long Pravda editorial are highly significant. It accuses Peking, of course, of 'whipping up war hysteria'; but Pravda declares that Russia has no intention of worsening its relations with (Red) China. Nobody, naturally, need take such a declaration as positive proof of its accuracy. But Pravda also says: 'The military arsenals of the Maoists are filling up with newer and newer weapons; war, if it broke out in modern conditions with the existing weaponry, lethal armaments and modern means of delivery, would leave no continent untouched.' To this, the Soviet organ adds that not all Western leaders are warmongers, and that Moscow is still willing to negotiate differences with Peking.

"This looks plainly as if the 'hawks' in the Kremlin had been over-ruled, that Russia's leaders had reached the conclusion that it was already too la for a 'pre-emptive strike' again (Red) China, and that Moscow suddenly and urgently wanted to be let off the hook of its own war-hysteria against (Red) China by anybody who had reasonable contacts with Peking. (Partial text)

Des Moines Register - Decline of rationality

The Des Moines Register said August 30: "Reports have reached Washington that Russian leaders have been asking Communist Party leader: of other countries what would be the reaction to a Soviet attack on (Red) China's nuclear weapons installations.

"Official Washington Russia (Red) China-watchers have boosted the odds on a major fight from 10 per cent to 50 per cent. A key (Red) Chinese nuclear facility is the gaseous diffusion plant at Lanchow, across the Great Wall from (Red) China's Inner Mongolia, but there are others.

"The border has changed often in the past. If China centuries ago held much of Soviet Central Asia and the Soviet Far East, Russia more recently had effective control of much of Manchuria and Sinkiang. Both Manchuria and Sinkiang are salients, surrounded on three sides by Soviet territories, and Peking and the North China plain are only slightly less exposed.

"A serious conflict need not be either a territorial grab or a preventive strike. Milder possible measures for Russia might be subversion among the non-Chinese people in Sinkiang or a punitive raid to destroy a large (Red) Chinese military force.

"On the (Red) Chinese side a military buildup has taken place, too, and for years (Red) Chinese and Russian official propagandists have been accusing the other country's leadership of betraying Communism and calling on true Communists to overthrow the erring leaders. For a long time this seemed to be mostly talk, but recent border clashes and the still more important border buildups cast a new red glare on the situation.

"The 4,500-mile border and the common claim to be heirs of Marx and Lenin made the 1949-1968 alliance logical and convenient, but there always have been national and practical differences. Now the same facts that made them good allies are making them dangerous enemies.

"The major force for peace is the unlikelihood that either could gain from war. Russia is incomparably stronger in weapons and technology, so (Red) China would be mad to go to war. For Russia, fighting (Red) China would be attacking a vast human sea.

"But as the quarrel goes on, both sides grow less rational. Reason alone may not be enough to prevent a conflict. The Moscow leaders who attacked and occupied their own loyal Czechoslovak ally might feel they must - and could - punish a defiant (Red) China." (Partial text)

The Scotsman - Who wants war?

The Scotsman of Edinburgh said August 30: "At no stage in the Sino-Soviet dispute have the Russian leaders resorted to appeasement. Now the Kremlin has manifestly decided that simple verbal abuse of the (Red) Chinese Government is not enough, and a new campaign of intimidation has begun. Pravda, in the long and hysterical tirade which it published on Thursday, hints at the possibility of nuclear conflict, in which Russia can still command a devastating advantage, despite the fact the 'arsenals of the Maoists are filling up with newer and newer weapons.' Russia protests that she does not want war, but at the same time she has been sounding out opinion among her Communist allies about their reaction to pre-emptive attacks on (Red) China's nuclear plants. Possibly news of these discussions has been leaked on purpose, to try to frighten Chairman Mao into more moderate policies, but it is hardly conceivable that he will reduce the huge concentrations of troops on his side of the border in response to Soviet threats. No doubt he dreads the destruction of his nuclear programme before it has become really formidable, but he knows that the Russians dread the prospect of being bogged down in a mainly conventional war with (Red) China.

"As well as trying, probably in vain, to bludgeon (Red) China into moderation with verbal attacks which are nowadays just as vicious as those produced in Peking, Russia is endeavouring to gain international support. Here she starts at a considerable advantage, with foreign correspondents and diplomats in Moscow ready to relay the official but not necessarily truthful account of (Communist) Chinese misbehaviour. Perhaps (Red) China will some day recognize the disadvantages of shutting herself off from the rest of the world. Yet Pravda surely exaggerates in claiming that if a war was started (by Red China), then no continent would remain untouched. Does the author of the article refer to nuclear radiation, or does he imagine that bombs will start dropping on Cairo and Chicago?

"Russia is not, as was demonstrated once again when Czechoslovakia was invaded, noted for concern about international opinion when her leaders feel that their own interests are at stake. But by raising the question, more openly than ever before, of an attack on (Red) China's nuclear installations, she should get a fairly clear outline of the attitude of non-Communist as well as Communist countries. Some Asian governments would not be dismayed if (Red) China's nuclear programme were to be cut off in its infancy, but Russia would have to produce evidence of (Communist) Chinese aggression before she could hope to convince Asian (and African) opinion that drastic measures against her Asian neighbour were justified. Meanwhile, the American Administration tries to be neutral in the Sino-Soviet dispute, and appears to be apprehensive about a major conflict." (Full text)

Daily Telegraph - Russia's nightmare

The Daily Telegraph of London said September 1: "It is unlikely that Russia's round robin to friendly Communist parties, alleging that (Red) China is preparing a protracted frontier war and stating that Russia would not tolerate this, was marked 'top secret.' Moscow seems most anxious that both West and East should share 'her preoccupation with the (Communist) Chinese problem. A 13-column editorial in Pravda accused (Red) China of aggressive intentions and warned the world at large that if war broke out 'no continent would be left out.' There was also confirmation by the State Department in Washington that it knew of 'rumours or reports' that Russia had asked other Communist parties for their reactions to the possibility of a Russian nuclear strike against (Red) China's nuclear installations.

"Care must be taken to put the Russo-Chinese dispute in perspective. It is obviously of great importance, and might within a decade or two, barring other upheavals in the meantime, become the most important factor in world affairs. For the moment, on the basis of first things first, it ranks behind Russia's military preponderance in Europe, her hold on her satellites, her strategic arms race with America, and the Middle East and Vietnam wars. The balance or evidence at the moment points to a deliberate Russian campaign to exaggerate both the immediacy of the (Red) Chinese threat and her own jitters in the face of it.

"This enables Russia, in the contest for world Communist leadership, to represent (Red) China not only as a heretic but also as a dangerous aggressive imperialist mad dog. It could also be intended to justify a pre-emptive strike if Russia should cold-bloodedly decide to settle the growing (Communist) Chinese problem while the going was good. In addition, Russia hopes to encourage the West to expect salvation less from its own efforts than from the repercussions of the Russo-Chinese dispute, and to assume that Russia's military expansion is directed against (Red) China and not against the West, Such expectations and assumptions remain unwarranted and dangerous." (Full text)

S. China Morning Post- Moscow woos Pyongyang

The South China Morning Post of Hongkong said September 2: "Moscow's efforts to woo North Korea are likely to further slow down the tempo of improving Russia's relations with the United States. Pyongyang's ties with Peking remain poor with Marshal Kim Il Sung showing no inclination to respond to some of the recent subtle overtures from (Red) China. Marshal Kim, still smarting from the abuse and insults heaped on him and his government by (Red) China's Red Guards, remains convinced that Peking is not pursuing an 'objective policy' towards the 'common enemy'- the United States. North Korea's ties with the Soviet Union, however, are not totally cloudless for although Marshal Kim regards Moscow as less of a stumbling block in forming a 'common front' against 'American imperialism', he deplores the Kremlin's 'revisionist' tendencies. He is also not happy with steps taken by Moscow to come to some understanding with Washington. Russia's first move to ease her strained relations with North Korea was made some months ago when Russia's President Podgorny paid a State visit to Pyongyang.

"More recently, as if to make up for her 'socialist indiscretion' in helping in the search for the American intelligence aircraft shot down by the North Koreans last April, Moscow joined Pyongyang in accusing the U.S. of 'flagrant violation' of North Korean airspace. She was referring to a U.S. helicopter brought down in North Korean territory. The intrusion, declared Pravda, showed up the 'new intrigues of the U.S. imperialist circles.' Russia has gone further to curry favour with Pyongyang by sponsoring, with 13 other countries, a resolution for the forthcoming General Assembly calling for the "withdrawal of U.S. and all other foreign forces occupying South Korea under the flag of the United Nations." The debate on this resolution will certainly bring about a confrontation between the U.S. and Russia and disrupt the process of a detente between them. But it will not necessarily bring an immediate and substantial improvement in Soviet-North Korean relations." (Full text)


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