Taiwan Today

February brings the start of a new Chinese year by the lunar cycle. There are growing indications that the forthcoming Year of the Sheep may be marked by the death agonies of the Chinese Communist regime. No less an authority than U.S. Secretary of State Dean Rusk has pronounced civil war a possibility in the mainland struggle for power. What began as a struggle between the Stalinism of Mao Tse-tung and the revisionism of Liu Shao-chi has degenerated into a violent showdown between men and women of intelligence and the mindless, Mao-directed Red Guards.

Events in December and January gave indication that Mao had gone too far in his efforts to reduce 700 million people to the lowest common denominator of impoverished serfdom. Those who had anything at all to lose began to strike back at Mao's Red Guards. More than a million workers poured into Peiping. They left no doubt that they would fight for their jobs against the rampant teen-agers, the "People's Liberation Army" or anyone else Mao might send against them. In the production brigades of the rural communes, peasants also balked at Red Guard interference. They, too, were fighting against Mao's total socialism; they wanted to keep their private plots and the slightly improved standard of living they had attained in the last few years.

Mao's self-deification had not been challenged in the first year of the "great proletariat cultural revolution". This was no longer the case at the end of 1966. The first direct attacks on the father-image of Chinese Communism were tentative and weak. However, the fact that they had even been made constituted a great leap toward an upheaval that can be expected to destroy the Chinese Reds and their totalitarian apparatus. The monolith has been split asunder. Not even the PLA can ever put the pieces of Chinese Communism back together.

No one in the world - and this includes the people of the Chinese mainland itself - knows all that has happened during the course of Mao's last-gasp attempt to save what he conceives of as his own personal revolution, and to recreate the "Yenan spirit" in tens of millions of Red Guards so as to assure the perpetuation of "the Communism of Mao Tse-tung". Nevertheless, a surprising amount of information has come out of mainland China, funneled through Japanese, Russian, and Eastern European reporters and intelligence sources. Because the happenings of the last few weeks are of such great moment and possible decisiveness, some of the most important are summarized in the following partial chronology.

Guards Fight Guards

December 13 - Moscow reported that Red Guard units had begun fighting each other. One group of Guards was branded as a "Fascist, Nazi organization".

December 14 - A Japanese reporter said Tao Chu, head of the propaganda department of the committee directing the "cultural revolution", had attacked "president" Liu Shao-chi and Communist Party secretary-general Teng Hsiao-ping as Khrushchev revisionists.

December 16 - Taipei sources said the struggle between Liu and Mao could not have a peaceful outcome, and that a "third power" might emerge. Liu was estimated to be in control of half or more of the mainland provinces. The Central News Agency reported from Hongkong that Red Guards were trying to fan up riots there.

December 19 - Czechoslovak reports said attempts were being made to curb the Red Guards and bring the "cultural revolution" under control. A Japanese correspondent said a militant Red Guard leader had been arrested in Peiping.

December 21 - Authorities on Chinese Communist affairs in Taipei said a mainland showdown had not yet been reached, and that Red Guards and PLA were split.

December 23 - Japanese reports asserted that Red Guards attached to the PLA had arrested Lo Jui-ching, former army chief of staff, and five other former army leaders as anti-Maoists. Lo and two of the others were rumored to have taken their own lives.

December 24 - Another Japanese correspondent said Lu Ting-yi, former minister of culture and propaganda chief, had committed suicide. The same reporter said Lo Jui-ching also had killed himself.

December 26 - Red Guard big-character posters (news sheets posted on walls) claimed that Liu Shao-chi had "confessed". As reported by Japanese correspondents, he admitted errors in guiding the "cultural revolution" while Mao was away and also confessed he had been a "right opportunist". The same confession indicted his wife, Wang Kuang-mei. Yugoslav reports said Liu and Teng Hsiao-ping might be arrested soon. Another story claimed that Chiang Ching, Mao's wife, had demanded the immediate arrest of anyone who opposed the thought and teachings of her husband.

Arrest of Peng

December 28 - Republic of China students said Teng Hsiao-ping had confessed to being a "bourgeois reactionary". Both the Liu and Teng confessions were said to have been made at a Communist Party meeting October 23.

December 28 - Republic of China students of Communist affairs expressed the opinion that Liu had not yet been beaten, and that Mao was afraid to purge him. A Czech report said "marshal" Peng Teh-huai, former defense minister, had been arrested by Red Guards December 24. Peng was ousted in 1959 for opposing Mao. Japanese correspondents said "vice premier" and "foreign minister" Chen Yi had been blasted by the Red Guards. Another Red Guard rally of 100,000 attacked Liu and Teng.

Chen Yi Assailed

December 29 - Red Guards denounced "second vice premier" Chen Yun, according to a Japanese report. Also denounced for mistakes in agricultural policy were "agriculture minister" Liao Lu-yen and former "vice premier" Teng Tsu-hui. Other wall papers said, "Kick out old Chen Yi". Yugoslav reports said Tao Chu had come under heavy attack in posters, indicating a new shift in the power struggle.

December 30 - Red Guard posters were quoted by Japanese newsmen as demanding the execution of Lo Jui-cheng and former Peiping "mayor" Peng Chen. Tao Chu was denounced for the second time.

December 31 - From Japanese sources came a report that Red Guards had distributed leaflets demanding Liu be dismissed and replaced as "president" by either Mao or "defense minister" Lin Piao. Liu's daughter was said to have made public confession that her father was opposing Mao.

January 2 - London intelligence asserted that the PLA had been split by the mainland struggle. Mao's wife was reported in a Japanese dispatch to have denounced Liu's "confession" as a hoax.

January 4 - Russian and Czech agencies reported the dissolution of the 21-million member "All-China Federation of Trade Unions". However, the Japanese said that ACFTU had not been dissolved but that leadership had been taken over by a group loyal to Mao and Lin. Liu is a former chairman of ACFTU and much of his strength is found among the rank and file of the mainland's more than 26 million industrial workers. Yugoslav reports said there had been armed clashes along the Sino-Russian border. Russian commentaries spoke of large Chinese Communist troop movements.

January 5 - Diplomatic reports reaching London said posters denouncing Mao as a fanatic had appeared in Peiping. In Taipei, a senior political adviser to President Chiang Kai-shek said Mao was trying to win over Liu Shao-chi because of the difficulty of purging him. A Red Guard paper quoted by Japanese correspondents claimed Mao had been forced out of the presidency in 1958 and had been trying to regain power ever since. Also from the Japanese came a story that propaganda chief Tao Chu, who rose to the No.4 place in the Chinese Communist hierarchy during the "cultural revolution", had been paraded through Peiping streets and subjected to a curbside kangaroo trial. A Czech reports said Liu's son joined the "president's" daughter in denouncing their father. The son earlier had been a Red Guard target. An English authority on Chinese Communism, Roderick MacFarquhar, speculated that Mao's wife might be his successor.

January 6 - Mao stayed in Shanghai for eight months in 1965 and 1966 because he was unable to get the "cultural revolution" started in Peiping at that time. This was revealed in a wall poster reported by Japanese.

Revolt of Farmers

January 7 - Radio Prague said 40 persons were killed and 500 injured in Nanking fighting between 100,000 workers and Red Guards. Japanese reporters said train service to Nanking had been suspended because of fighting there. A poster criticizing "premier" Chou En-lai was pasted up in Peiping's main square in the evening but ripped off before morning, according to a Japanese report. Chen Yi was denounced. London newspapers reported the mainland was on the verge of civil war.

January 8 - Japanese dispatches claimed many persons were injured when more than 5,000 farmers stormed a Red Guard rally in the Chushan islands east of Shanghai. Japanese reporters also said the Nanking struggle against the Red Guards was instigated by forces loyal to Tao Chu. Peiping reports reaching London said clashes between workers and Red Guards had spread to Shanghai. Moscow claimed Mao was trying to regiment the mainland population into an army of forced labors that would build a mighty nation without any increase in the living standard. Japanese sources claimed that Chou En-lai had not lost his place in the Peiping hierarchy and would not be replaced by Mao's wife. Another Red Guard rally of 100,000 criticized Liu, Teng Hsiao-ping, and Tao Chu. A Yugoslav reporter said 13 of 15 "vice premiers" had been attacked within the previous few days.

Canton Clashes

January 9 - Peiping admitted that thousands of Shanghai workers had left their jobs and that the city's water, power, and transportation services were paralyzed. Japanese reporters said both the Shanghai and Nanking situations remained confused. Diplomatic reports to London suggested that Mao had lost most of his support among members of the Communist hierarchy, although retaining a large following among the masses. Lin Piao was said to be "running the show". Travelers reaching Hongkong said factory workers had clashed with Red Guards in Canton. Taipei observers said the mainland situation had deteriorated into anarchy and that no leader was strong enough to take control. Yugoslav dispatches quoted Red Guard posters in Peiping as saying that more than 170 persons had been buried alive at an agricultural enterprise near the city. Fighting was reported from many parts of China.

January 10 - In Washington, Republic of China Ambassador Chow Shu-kai said the PLA had not intervened in clashes between workers and Red Guards. If chaos results, he said, "That is where we come in. We have been preparing for such a day and we cannot shed our responsibility to the Chinese people." Chinese reaching Hongkong from Canton said posters attacking Mao had been displayed there, and that Canton Radio had broadcast appeals for his supporters to "crush the enemies of our great leader". Continued fighting was reported, and many workers stayed away from their jobs. A hospital was sacked by Red Guards; doctors and nurses were beaten up because they had cared for injured anti-Mao workers. Japanese reported Shanghai paralyzed by strikes and street fighting, and chaos in other major cities. Mao was said to be in Shanghai. Chinese Communist official sources admitted the seriousness of the situation. The Japanese also said Lin Piao had attacked Liu and Teng at a Chinese Communist Central Committee work meeting in late October. Liu and Teng were said to have "confessed" at this same meeting. Other Japanese dispatches claimed Liu's wife had been kidnapped by Red Guards, that Mao security forces had taken over from the Peiping police, and that Mao had called for a vigorous counteroffensive against Shanghai workers. British, Russian, and Canadian sources expressed doubt that civil war would erupt on the mainland. London suggested that Chou En-lai might be considered the bellwether of events to come on the mainland.

January 11 - Chou En-lai urged Red Guards to smash the "bourgeois reactionary line" represented by Liu and Teng but without attacking the two individually. The source was Japanese. The "New China News Agency" reported from Shanghai that Liu-Teng fol1owers in Shanghai were resorting to economic warfare. Japanese and Czech dispatches said strikes had spread to at least 10 large cities. At least 100 Red Guards were said to have been killed in Canton. Both People's Daily and Red Flag warned anti-Maoists to surrender or be wiped out.

Mao to Peiping

January 12 - Official Red Chinese sources admitted violence in Shanghai and the disruption of transportation throughout the mainland. A Japanese correspondent in Peiping said Mao may have returned there from Shanghai. NCNA said Shanghai dissidents were giving up. In Washington, Secretary of State Dean Rusk said mainland civil war was a possibility but that it was too early to be sure. Japanese and Chinese Communist sources said Mao had issued an ultimatum to his enemies and had called upon the PLA to support him. A "loyalty oath" was exacted from army commanders. However, Mao's attempt to purge the army leadership seemed to have failed. Japanese reports said "vice premier" Po I-po had been arrested in Canton and taken to Peiping. A Hongkong newspaper claimed former Peiping "mayor" Peng Chen had been killed by a gunman and that propaganda chief Tao Chu had been arrested by Red Guards.

January 13 - Chou En-lai confirmed that Mao had returned to Peiping, where Japanese correspondents thought they saw new threats of violence. Official sources admitted the Shanghai clashes were continuing. Soviet sources said fighting had broken out in Tibet. The chief of the "New China News Agency" was replaced.

January 14 - "Marshal" Chu Teh again was assailed in Peiping wall posters. Japanese reports said that he was denounced for supporting Liu Shao-chi. Peiping Radio admitted a "handful" of PLA officers were still opposing Mao: "Even now they are staging a counter-attack." Red Guards seized the Peiping Central Radio Broadcasting station, claiming its programs were not appropriate to the "cultural revolution". Red Guard posters announced the replacement of propaganda chief Tao Chu by a three-man group of Maoists. Other radio stations and newspapers were brought under Red Guard control. Japanese newsmen also cited poster reports of an anti-Mao attack on the "State Council" building. Pro-Maoists defended "secret documents" and blood was shed.

Rice Versus Socialism

January 15 - Yugoslav sources told of Red Guard deceit in the luring of Wang Kuang-mei, wife of Liu Shao-chi, to the hospital where she was seized. Moscow claimed that clashes were increasing and that opposition to the "cultural revolution" and Red Guards was on the increase. The struggle had become one of rice versus revolution, Pravda maintained, adding that workers wanted higher wages and a better living and were prepared to fight for them. Peiping Radio claimed a million Shanghai workers had organized to back Mao and launch a counter-offensive against "bourgeois reactionaries who followed the capitalist road". The paper said a new turning point had been reached in the "cultural revolution". In a Peiping address, Politburo member Yeh Chien-ying said the forces of Mao had launched an all-out general offensive against "bourgeois reactionaries". Pravda blamed Mao's wife for "pogrom activities" against administrators and intellectuals. Foreign Ministry sources in Tokyo said the Chinese Communists were recalling diplomats, bankers, and newspaper correspondents from all over the world. Diplomatic personnel had been summoned from 20 of Peiping's 47 foreign missions. Peiping was crowded with a million workers summoned by anti-Mao leaders. Chou En-lai called for a pro-Mao offensive and said the revisionists were collapsing. However, Red Flag said Mao's enemies "still hold Party, political, and financial power". Wall posters reported Liu had retracted his "confession"; there was no comment from official sources.

January 16 - An anti-Communist newspaper in Hongkong said Liu had established headquarters at Shichiachuan near Peiping in preparation for "an all-out attack against Mao Tse-tung". Shichachuan is an industrial and rail city 220 kilometers south of Peiping, and Liu was said to have strong support there. Red Flag charged that Liu had established his own private army, but said the PLA remains wholly loyal to Mao. Radio Moscow asserted anti-Maoism was growing rapidly throughout the mainland. The theoretical journal of the Communist Party also reiterated demands that Mao's foes surrender.

Pro-Liu Guards

January 17 - Radio Peiping said factory workers in the Red capital had pledged support to Mao and called for a purge of anti-Maoists in industry. Some observers predicted Peiping violence similar to that in Shanghai. Japanese sources said Chou En-lai and Chen Po-ta had told a pro-Mao rally in Peiping that Maoists should not try to take over industrial enterprises but should be content to keep a close watch on anti-Mao officials so as to assure that they were honest and worked hard. In Shanghai, anti-Maoists in industry sat back to see what pro-Maoists would do, and Chen called this "a new plot" to disrupt production. It was becoming evident that Mao supporters were not competent to undertake technical work and manage properties. People's Daily said Red Guards had ransacked the birthplace of Confucius and destroyed a temple built in his honor. The Chinese Communist newspaper called the teachings of Confucius feudalistic and anti-Mao. Peiping Radio told of new efforts by pro-Liu elements to paralyze Shanghai. Japanese reports said Liu forces were withdrawing funds from banks and trying to finance a counter-offensive against Mao but that their accounts had been frozen. An anti-Communist newspaper in Hongkong said Lin Piao was in Manchuria preparing for a military drive against anti-Maoists. Rumors of Mao's death swept Canton and Kwangtung province, and Red Guards toured cities and villages denying it.

January 18 - Travelers reported Canton tense, with new clashes feared. Red Guards in the city charged Liu forces with subversive acts. In Peiping, pro-Liu Red Guards appeared; they stuck up big-character posters defending the "president" and denouncing Mao purge leaders as opportunists. Peiping Radio claimed two pro-Liu deputy mayors of Shanghai had been arrested. Japanese reporters said the power struggle was deadlocked. Fighting was reported in Sinkiang. Peiping posters rapped "foreign minister" Chen Yi for "bourgeois living". Chinese Communist diplomats also were charged with luxurious living. Workers who had crowded into Peiping were buying everything in sight; pro-Maoists tried to impose a ban on luxury goods and closed stores.

Battles Continue

January 19 - Japanese reports based on wall posters said Mao-Liu battles had taken place in Shenyang, Harbin, and Cheng-chow. A traveler from Canton said Mao had teen burned in effigy there. Hongkong newspapers reported 12 pro-Liu officials from Canton had sought asylum in the British colony. Intelligence sources in Hongkong said Mao had placed Liu under house arrest in Peiping. Red Guards took over the Peiping police headquarters and closed a department store for selling "luxury" items to workers. From Japanese correspondents came the claim that peasants were taking up the anti-Mao banner. Mao's wife was said to have inspired the arrest of Liu's son as a "rotten element who secretly contacted a foreign country". In Washington, ROC Ambassador Chow Shu-said the struggle had gone beyond the point of compromise and could result only in "mutual destruction". He predicted the rise of non-Communist opposition groups, the formation of "pockets of resistance", and the "genuine fragmentation" of the mainland. He suggested that resistance forces might enter into "political negotiations" with the government of the Republic of China, a move which could lead to mainland recovery by political rather than military means.

This abbreviated record of five December and January weeks on the mainland is sufficient to show that there is not one but several struggles - or to put it another way, that struggle is proceeding on several levels. These might be identified as:

- Mao Tse-tung and followers versus Liu Shao-chi and followers. This is partly a power struggle, partly a battle of individual personalities, and partly a showdown between Mao's Stalinist brand of Communism and Liu's Khrushchev-style revisionism.

- Workers and progressive-minded peasants against Mao or anyone else who tries to force them to sacrifice a decent life on the altar of an all-powerful, aggressive state.

- Intellectuals and intelligent Party and government officials against anti-intellectuals, a group that includes Mao and some of his followers.

- Less intelligent and poorly educated young people against all those who have more and know more than they do.

- Anti-Communists against Mao and against Liu as well, although some of them may pretend to side with the latter for reasons of expediency. The anti-Communist aspects of the struggle can be seen most clearly when members of the armed forces, Party cadres, and intellectuals manage to escape to the free world.

Although no one can be sure what will happen the record indicates that the opposition to Mao Stalinism is too far-reaching and too strong to be permanently overcome. Mao may triumph temporarily. Chou En-lai may find a compromise. There is even a remote possibility of some revisionism. In the end, however, the most likely outcome is a continuing struggle that will slowly lead to the overthrow of Chinese Communism in both its Mao and Liu guises. At that moment, the Republic of China will be prepared to move into the vacuum, either through the political discussions that Ambassador Chow has suggested or via a military offensive against the remnants of Communism.

What matters most of all is the brightening prospect for the Chinese people and nation. To stand up against the might and power and mystique of the Mao godhead has taken incredible courage. A people so intrepid will surely attain the freedom and the better life for which they are fighting, and which the Republic of China has already established for the 13 million people of the island province of Taiwan.