In an article entitled "Peking 'Salesmen' in Africa", Pierre J. Huss said in the New York Journal-American of December 19: "Two of Peiping's most adroit politicians are currently swinging through Africa trying to woo the black or Arab regimes away from the white West, or from the Soviet Union. On this foray are 'Foreign Minister' Chen Yi and 'Premier' Chou En-lai, a pair of aces by any name in the Communist deck of trick cards.
"Mao's foreign policy agent showed up first in Kenya for the Mau Mau land's independence celebration, and then joined Chou on the dragon tour. Their slogan, invented by the recent session of the 'National Peoples Congress' (the Red Parliament), is, 'We have friends and comrades all over the world.'
"Although this is something of a exaggeration, Chen and Chou obviously intend to smokescreen all doubts in the non-Communist world about the Moscow-Peiping conflict. Thus this pair will glibly try to convince Africa that Red China is the friend, the United States and all whites the enemy, and the Soviet Union the mercenary power playing both ends against the middle at the expense of the truly democratic socialist world.
"Chen and Chou will play heavily on the anti-colonialist, anti-imperialist theme and most strongly contend that it is not up to Moscow and Washington to shape the fate of the world between them. That kind of talk is bound to sound good to Pakistan, the United Arab Republic, Algeria, Ghana, Guinea, Mali, Somalia and Tanganyika.
"Some of the Afro-Asian delegates questioned on the possible success of the Peiping tourists said it was problematical, depending not so much on what they will offer to entice Africa but what Communist China can do for Africa.
"The grim economic disasters and famine in Communist China of the past couple of years have led the outside world, including Africa, to look at Red China as a poverty-stricken nation striving to pull itself up by the bootstrap. But this will not necessarily prevent Chen and Chou from persuading the host countries that Communist China can help them much more than did the Soviet Union. Peiping already has supplied economic help to its leftist pals in Algeria, Ghana and Guinea.
"There is another angle too important to overlook. The entry of Kenya and Zanzibar into the U.N. raises the total of African nations to 34. For 10 years, the U.N. has kept its door locked against the admission of Red China. But one sure road for Peiping is by way of absolute majority vote. What better prospects are there than to woo enough Africans, in combination with Asians, into forcing the Assembly to grant them the coveted seat?
"All this is not to say that Chen and Chou are going to get by with their seductive salesmanship without encountering searching challenges from some Africans not yet in the leftist camp. Among the Africans at the U.N., at least, there is distrust of Red China ever since the Communists crushed Tibet, invaded India, and because they defy the U.N. in Korea. But Chen and Chou undoubtedly have their readymade answers on these sticklers. What Communist hasn't, whether from Moscow or Peiping?"
The British Daily Telegraph of December 16 said: "There are obvious limits to any immediate advantage that Communist China can be hoping to gain from Chou En-lai's African tour. His first port of call, Cairo, must seem the least promising; for in the issues that Red China has nearest at heart, Egypt leans heavily on the opposite side. Communist China's two worst enemies, Marshal Tito and Mr. Nehru, are President Nasser's best friends; though he would like to mediate a settlement of the conflict between India and Red China, he will not be persuaded to champion the latter's case. As between Russia and Communist China, President Nasser will be mindful of the Soviet help he is getting for the Aswan High Dam. His massive dependence on American aid will make him wary of contracting any association with Red China that might snap his benefactors' patience.
"At the Cairo festivities much play is being made with Egyptian readiness to lead an Afro-Asian campaign to get Communist China admitted to the United Nations. This is about as far as President Nasser is likely to go. Flattering as it may be to Red Chinese self-esteem, it is assuredly not for this that Chou has embarked on his grand tour.
"Its purpose is to show the Chinese flag among the emerging states of Africa; not to sign a treaty here or a new aid agreement there-though these would be welcome grist—but to establish the image of Communist China as a nation to be reckoned with in the world. Peiping would doubtless be well satisfied with the tour if its only practical outcome were agreement to hold another Bandung-type conference, under Red Chinese auspices.
"This broad objective is enjoined as much by Red China's present weakness as by her future ambition. In terms of aid and trade she has little to offer. In these spheres both the West and the Soviet Union can far outbid her. Subtler methods will be needed to counteract the influence that Communist China is seeking to spread in Africa - the image of something new out of Asia, the success story of a non-white elder brother's 'struggle against imperialism' on principles which the Russians have now betrayed."
Commenting on the same topic, the Mainichi Daily News said December 29: "The purposes of 'Premier' Chou's journey to Africa are believed to promote goodwill with the African countries and to secure their support in order to break out of the isolation into which Peiping has been placed due to the Soviet-Red Chinese ideological dispute and its opposition to the nuclear test ban.
"The reaction in the African countries so far, however, has not been as enthusiastic as Peiping might have anticipated. Insofar as the UAR and Algeria are concerned, Chou does not seem to have gained support for Peiping's position in the Soviet-Red Chinese dispute or for holding a 'second' Bandung Conference. The same attitude is likely to prevail in Ghana, Mali, Guinea and the Sudan which Chou and his party are scheduled to visit from now on.
"As Chou has declared in Algeria, the African countries are now in the midst of a socialist experiment as in the case of the 'People's Republic of China.' There is also a strong anti-colonial and anti-imperialist feeling in these countries which are vehemently opposed to racial discrimination. These principles are also advocated by Peiping.
"Nevertheless, Africa has its own interests which give rise to its own policies. In most cases, the newly emerging states have only recently gained political independence and are still lagging in industrial development. Economic progress is the biggest problem that they face and the greatest difficulty is the acquisition of capital. That is the reason why some of these countries still retain ties with the former colonial powers. Others, adopting a policy of positive neutralism or non-alignment, are seeking economic aid from both the East and the West. For them, the Soviet-Red Chinese dispute is a remote problem. At the same time, they do not wish to become too involved with Communist China lest this affect the economic aid from the United States and the Soviet Union.
"Nor are the African countries desirous of taking sides in the Indochinese border dispute although they are willing, as a group, to offer their good offices for mediation. Since they also oppose French nuclear tests in the Sahara, these African countries must also differ from Communist China in their attitude toward the nuclear arms ban treaty.
"Thus, the countries of Africa hold a different position on the various problems for which Communist China is seeking their support. This is a factor that Chou is evidently keeping in mind as he continues his African journey .... "
Ideology vs. Racialism
In a review of the Moscow-Peiping feud, the Los Angeles Times said December 23: "By design or not, the Red Square riots of Ghananian students, protesting racial discrimination in the Soviet Union, fit ideally into Communist China's current anti-Soviet propaganda campaign.
"For, ever more blatantly, Peiping has been using racial grounds to undercut the Russians. At the same time, of course, the Red Chinese talk up the solidarity of color among Asians and Africans.
"Until the split in the Communist world was acknowledged openly, the Red Chinese allowed the Russians to get away with their claim that the Soviet Union's vast Asian territories were credentials to join, as an equal, in Afro-Asian groups. Even today, for instance, the Soviet Union is a member of the Afro-Asian People's Solidarity Organization.
"But, with the Moscow-Peiping dispute in the open, Red Chinese leaders now are propagating the notion that, since the Soviet Union got its Asian land by conquest, it is simply one more white 'have' nation, like the United States or the West European nations. This, obviously, smacks of a charge of imperialism. Already Peiping is seeking to establish Afro-Asian groups from which Moscow will be excluded.
"On his unprecedented tour of Africa, just beginning, 'Premier' Chou En-lai is expected to stress color solidarity among non-white populations. This is the emotional side of what Washington officials suspect is the opening of a new (Red) Chinese diplomatic front in Africa, directed against both the Russians and the West. Peiping already has minor aid programs going, including a $50 million loan to Algeria and a $23 million loan to Somalia.
"The Russians deeply resent Red China's insertion of race into their ideological quarrel. In a caustic article, one Soviet commentator wrote that the Red Chinese apparently are using the slogan, 'Workers of the same color, unite!'
"It is true that Africans have reported a number of racial incidents in Moscow.
It also is true that African students at Moscow's Patrice Lumumba Freedom University tend to resent their assignment to a predominantly colored school.
"That doesn't necessarily mean racial discrimination exists widely. But it lends enough credence to Red Chinese charges of Soviet racialism to make the allegations an effective weapon against Moscow."
The New York Post declared December 23: "Dramatic confirmation of the way cold war alignments are shifting is provided by Soviet Russia's sudden reversal of its stand on enlarging the U.N. Security Council.
"For years it had resisted Afro-Asian pressures to do so. It had insisted that such changes would have to wait upon Peiping's assuming its 'rightful' place in the U.N.
"But then Peiping publicly pulled the rug from under the Russians. In a bid for Afro-Asian favor, it said it did not oppose enlargement of U.N. bodies prior to its own seating in the U.N. It went on to charge Moscow with using the argument about Red China's seat as a 'pretext' for not going along with the Afro-Asians.
"Peiping's declaration made Moscow's position untenable. A Foreign Ministry statement says the Soviet Union is now willing to discuss expansion of U.N. bodies immediately.
"The episode illuminates the depth of the split between Peiping and Moscow and the violence of their competition for Afro-Asian favor.
"It is, as we have indicated above, hardly a moment for U.S. diplomacy to be immobilized. "
Under the headline "Bodies Drifting in Mist", Joseph Alsop said in the New York Herald Tribune of December 20: "'It's like watching bodies drifting through a mist. We can see the direction of movement. We know the movement has been going on for several months. But we can't measure this movement, much less be quite sure of its immediate or ultimate purpose.'
"In this suggestive but non-committal manner, one of those who man the local watch-towers recently described the Soviets' gradual but persistent reinforcement of their Chinese frontier. The region to which the reinforcement is mainly directed is the border of the most remote and vulnerable of all the provinces of Communist China, Sinkiang, in Central Asia.
"Attention was first concentrated on the Sino-Soviet border last September, when one of Moscow's more violent denunciations of Peiping included a bitter complaint against 5,000 border violations' by Chinese Communist troops and citizens. An intensified watch has been kept since then.
"By the normal rules of demonological interpretation, it must be added, the Moscow statement of last September was mainly significant for another passage warning the Peiping leaders that they could count on no support from 'the armed might of the Socialist camp if they pursued certain Red Chinese 'aims and interests' which did not deserve that support.
"At that time, there seemed to be some possibility that the Red Chinese might be considering another attack on the still-undefended Indian border. Thus, the September statement had to be interpreted primarily as a deterrent reminder that the Red Chinese might have trouble on their own border if they made further trouble on the Indian border.
"What it so striking about the Soviets' reinforcement of their border with Red China is the fact that it has been continuing, without remission, ever since last September, and therefore long after there was any likelihood of another Red Chinese adventure against India.
"The frontiers of Sin kiang, which are now being reinforced, are just about the most remote and least penetrable area of the Soviet Union. Thus, it has been learned only within the last year that quite serious border fighting broke out in this area as early as 1960, just after Moscow-Peiping relations soured for good.
"It is not exaggerating, in fact, to say that there was a brief border battle between Soviet and Red Chinese troops, for organized military units were engaged on each side. Since news of this battle took nearly three years to seep westward, it can be seen why the present position on the Sinkiang frontier is hard to estimate precisely.
"As to the Soviet troop buildup on this remote frontier, there can be little doubt any longer, even though the watchers only see 'bodies drifting through a mist.' Soviet military publications have printed warning hints. Soviet troops are known with certainty to have been moved from Poland, and other troops are thought to have been transferred from East Germany.
"As to the motive of this Soviet troop buildup, however, there are almost no limits on speculation. One suggestive item of evidence is the fact that the Poles recently made a fairly desperate effort to damp down the Moscow-Peiping dispute. Wladyslaw Gomulka sent personal emissaries for this purpose to Moscow, to Peiping, to Belgrade and to Rome and Paris for meetings with the French and Italian Communist leaders.
"Judging by the ever-mounting venom and hysteria of the Peiping attacks on Nikita S. Khrushchev, the Gomulka effort has got nowhere, at least as yet. Moreover, the Poles, like all the other Eastern European Communists, enjoy and benefit from the freedom of action conferred on them by the Moscow-Peiping split. Hence it seems likely that Gomulka was trying to prevent something worse than a mere split.
"Again, the area being reinforced by the Soviets is decidedly suggestive. For a sustained border conflict Sinkiang, so remote from the center and so hard to supply, would certainly impose a maximum strain on the crazy Chinese Communist economic-military machine, even if the border conflict were carefully limited. If Moscow wants to test the possibilities of causing an economic military collapse in Communist China, the Sinkiang border is a good place for a modest experiment of this sort.
"The great majority of analysts until very recently poohpoohed the smallest suggestion that really bad trouble might be approaching on the Sino-Soviet border. Very likely, this conservative view of the matter is still the correct one. But it has to be noted that border trouble has lately begun to be regarded as 'a real possibility'—not a probability, mind you, but a possibility serious enough to be weighed with vivid, somewhat anxious, interest."
Nuclear Prospects
Under a headline "Atomic Blast Won't Give Red China Power", R. H. Shackford said in the New York World-Telegram December 18: "Don't be surprised if Red China manages to explode a very primitive nuclear device within the next year or so.
"But Communist China's industrial situation makes it unlikely that she can become a major nuclear-armed nation for many years—or even a military threat to the big powers.
"Note this capsuled, basic appraisal:
" 'Communist China does not and cannot produce aviation gasoline in mass quantities ... she doesn't have enough kerosene to keep the lamps lit in the peasants' huts and at the same time keep her jets flying ... she is years away from a refining industry that will produce enough lubricants for today's complex machine.'
"That is the summation of an analyst who has kept close watch of Red China's industrial development - or rather its lack.
"Five years ago, according to Peking propaganda, almost every backyard in Red China had a homemade steel furnace in it. This was part of Mao Tse-tung's 'Great Leap Forward,' a grandiose attempt to lift Red China into the 20th century overnight.
"As with the 'commune' program in agriculture, the backyard steel dream was a colossal and disastrous failure.
"Another factor which has lowered industrial operations to 50 per cent of capacity is the break with Russia—the only nation sufficiently advanced industrially and technologically which might have been willing and able to help Communist China.
"As Peiping now admits, the Russians suddenly in July, 1960, ordered home all their technical experts, nearly 1,400, tore up 345 contracts and annulled 257 items of scientific cooperation. Earlier they abrogated an agreement to help build an atomic bomb.
"It is little wonder that Red China's industry is a sorry mess. A survey of its key elements shows only one bright spot-production of crude petroleum for which it previously had been almost wholly dependent on Russia. Here are some of the key facts in the Red Chinese picture:
"Steel—Ignoring the low-grade stuff (some of it just cast iron) from backyard furnaces, Red China has a capacity for steel production of only 12 million tons annually. Production in 1963, by the Communists' own admission, was below eight million tons. Coal also is operating at only 50 per cent of capacity.
"Chemical fertilizer—Doing fairly well, but capacity is small, about three million tons a year. Several small fertilizer plants are being built but this has slowed up since the Russian technicians left.
"Automotive—This industry operates sometimes as low as 10 per cent of capacity, never in recent years above 30 per cent.
"Petroleum—Current production is six million tons of crude oil and the industry is operating at or close to capacity. Refining capacity is much less-especially for high-octane aviation gasoline and various important kinds of lubricants. Until last year, the Red Chinese got about one-third of their refined oil requirements from the Russians. But the Russians cut back the supply drastically. Oil production has faltered at times, but never to the extent of other industrial setbacks.
"Raw materials—Tremendous shortages. Besides, Red China never has solved the ordinary industrial problems of getting the right kind of iron ore to the right plants at the same time that the right kind of coal and coke is there.
"Technology—This is Red China's greatest problem in the next decade. Withdrawal of Russian help in this field is going to hurt tremendously. For the long term it can be solved only by extensive education and training in applied sciences and technology; for the short term Red China cannot do it alone but will have to import industrial equipment and hire outside technicians.
"So, from a glance at these categories it is obvious that Red China's chances of doing anything tremendous in the early future are slim.
"It is against this industrial picture of Red China in the 1960's that any primitive variety of nuclear explosion in Communist China must be measured.
"However, this does not discount the nuisance and propaganda rewards the Red Chinese will try to reap from such a development—especially among its smaller, impressionable neighbors."