The inconclusive Moscow-Peiping negotiations and Peiping's position on the test ban treaty were major topics of press attention.
The South China Morning Post of Hongkong said editorially August 1: "The marathon slugging match between Moscow and Peiping continues unabated, with Peiping throwing its heaviest and most devastating punch in its latest denunciation of the Soviet-Western nuclear test ban treaty. How much longer this can go on without rupturing relations between the two regimes is a matter of widespread speculation.
"But there is a growing feeling that a repetition of the events which culminated in the rejection of Yugoslavia from the Soviet bloc is not far off. Tito was accused of becoming completely dependent on foreign imperialist circles, and Peiping uses variations of the same charge now when it accuses Russia of forming an anti-(Red) Chinese alliance with the United States and selling out the interests of its own people and other Communist states.
"At the same time it described the test ban treaty as a 'dirty fraud'-and this is language that is as harsh as any it has used against its worst enemy - America.
"By its latest note (Red) China shows that it occupies the same position in the Communist camp as de Gaulle in the Western camp. Like de Gaulle, the Chinese Communist leadership has an alternative proposition to offer, ostensibly something better. This may be dismissed as a tactic to camouflage its recent hostility to the testing treaty.
"(Red) China also appears to be trying to go one better than Russia by calling a world summit to 'discuss the question of the complete prohibition and destruction of nuclear weapons.' It is a naive view that a gathering of the world's leaders can sit down at a massive table and agree to outlaw a weapon that the three owners themselves have only just agreed to stop testing—and that after several years of exhaustive discussion.
"It is also a completely unacceptable view so long as the Peiping regime believes in spreading Communism by violence and conquest. Which nuclear power under these circumstances—even Russia—is going to consider dropping its atomic guard?
Welcome News
Shinichi Kamimura wrote for the Japan Times August 1: "It is indeed welcome news that a treaty on a partial test ban has been concluded by the United States, Britain and the Soviet Union. The treaty could become the bridgehead for ushering in a new era in the history of the cold war between the East and the West.
"What could have prompted the Soviet Union to suddenly accept a partial test ban treaty which it had been objecting to so stubbornly in the past? A natural assumption is that it had something to do with the Soviet Communist Chinese talks or the intensification of controversy between the two nations.
"The Soviet Union has solidified its economic and industrial foundation in the 45 years since its revolution. The country was blessed with land and resources. But the Soviet people had to undergo a good deal of hardship in the meantime.
"With the end of World War II and the death of former dictator Josef Stalin, the pent-up patience of the Soviet people exploded. The people began to demand better living. Under pressure, the government had to produce more supplies for the people at the expense of the war industries. The result was Premier Nikita Khrushchev's call for peaceful coexistence and reduction of arms.
"By contrast, Communist China is in no condition to wage peaceful economic competition with the capitalist nations.
"It is convinced that revolution within its borders and in the world must be achieved through war. The Red Chinese argument is that the Soviet Union has become so rich that it has forgotten the teachings of Marx-Leninism.
"Communist China claims the disciples of Marx-Leninism should not hesitate to use nuclear weapons, if necessary, to carry out a world revolution. Hidden beneath the intensity of Red China's attacks against the Soviet Union is a sense of rivalry rooted in historical and geographical factors. The rivalry has developed into a fight for power between the Soviet Union and Red China ...
"Some observers even say that if Communist China continues to be vociferous against the Soviet Union, the latter will try to strengthen its ties with the West. Of course, this is just a suggestion. Things are too complicated to justify such a cursory conclusion.
"It should be admitted, however, that East-West relations are now overshadowed by a North-South antagonism. This certainly changes the picture of the world's problems.
"Advanced nations including the USSR lean to the maintenance of the status quo, while underdeveloped nations are tempted to abolish it as they are not satisfied with it. Communism by nature aims at the destruction of the status quo, but the haves are attracted by its maintenance-peaceful coexistence.
"A good opportunity presented itself for adjustment of East-West relations. The solution of the North-South problems largely hinges upon the advanced nations efforts to give assistance to the underdeveloped. Giving aid to backward nations is the duty of the advanced countries and it will be to the benefit of the latter. This is apparently where the Soviet Union antagonizes Communist China.
"It is too early to say that East-West relations will turn for the better very soon. But we are certainly beginning to see the light in the adjustment of East-West antagonism."
Broken Promises
Commenting on the test ban treaty, the Chicago Tribune said July 27: "That the partial nuclear test ban treaty negotiated in Moscow is a delusion, we are convinced. Whether it is also a snare, only time will tell. The Russian record of upholding its pledged word could hardly be worse. When we had voluntary moratorium on testing with the Soviet Union, Khrushchev swore that he would never be the first to break the agreement.
"He did so on September 1, 1961. After long and surreptitious preparation, the Soviet Union launched an extended-series of tests in the atmosphere with thermo-nuclear weapons giving a yield of up to 58 megatons, the equivalent of 58 million tons of TNT.
"At the time, Mr. Kennedy bitterly complained that the Soviet Union had indicated 'the complete hypocrisy of its profession about general and complete disarmament. On March 2, 1961, Mr. Kennedy followed up with a 'last chance' offer to Khrushchev for a new test agreement, broadly implying he was not to be taken in again.
"When Russia was unresponsive, the United States resumed testing itself. Thereafter, for many months, there was interminable wrangling at Geneva over a test ban. Then, on last June 10, at American university, Mr. Kennedy announced that high level discussions toward a test ban were to be resumed in Moscow.
War, he said, 'makes no sense' although he conceded no undertakings could ever guarantee absolute security from the risks of deception and evasion.
"Averell Harriman, his ambassador, arrived in Moscow just as the conference between the Chinese Communists and the Soviet Union was breaking up with unconcealed animosity. The Russians publicly accused the Red Chinese of trying to foment a nuclear war so that Red China could pick up the pieces afterward. Abandoning all past tactics to make agreement impossible, Khrushchev and his colleagues quickly proceeded to the drafting of the present ban."
Sense of Isolation
Anticipating Red China's next move, the British Scotsman said July 31: "It had been clear for some time before the Moscow talks broke down that Red China would need careful watching. Psychologically, she has once more been driven into a corner, and she suffers dangerously already from a sense of isolation. She will, of course, try to recoup as in the past by splitting the Communist Party throughout the world and attracting support.
"What else will Red China do? Will she attempt more dangerous adventures? Very recent events have almost looked a confirmation of the worst possible interpretation her actions would bear. North Korea follows the Red China line. Suddenly, inexplicably, North Korea has attacked American troops well south of the demilitarised zone—a frontier incident so impossible to explain as accidental that America responds with a full combat alert.
"Meanwhile far more menacing reports come from India, where, it is true, they have circulated for some time. India responds with all due urgency. Only London seems calm. It is possible to take several views of intelligence reports coming from such a remote and rumor-saturated part of the world as India's borderland, but if the stories about 130,000 men and 1000 or 2000 aircraft cannot be substantiated they cannot be ignored. The border has many weak points along its great length. Concentration of air power would seem an obvious move if Red China planned attack, especially after India's prolonged attempts to secure air support.
"It is impossible to know Red China's intentions or to do more than guess at her motivation until she shows her hand. The undoubted fact is that the West cannot intervene very effectively, nor can India build effective defenses, while the dispute with Pakistan continues. Every Western move to reinforce India drives Pakistan closer to Red China, so defeating its own purpose by increasing the danger on the flank.
"It is really deplorable that such a situation should have been allowed to develop at all. The Indians are much to blame, considering their behaviors over Kashmir, but the Pakistanis are showing terrible blindness in flirting with Red China. They seem to think a pro-Red Chinese alignment would leave their way of life and religion intact. In the short run it might, but if Pakistan opened the Himalayan door to Chinese invasion of the sub-continent, Communist atheism would in the long run seek to destroy religion, there as everywhere else.
The position so strongly favors Red China that she has little need to attack directly. Skillful border politics combined with constant pressure can do much of the job for her."
Sobering Restraints
In an article entitled "Chiang Gives Miffed Mao Cause For Pause," James D. Hittle said in the Washington Evening Star July 28: "With the Chinese Communists angry and frustrated over the futility of their recent ideological talks with the Russians, the possibility of renewed aggression by Peiping in Asia has been the subject of rising speculation in the West.
"Mao may be miffed and his henchmen may be, too. But they are not fools. They realize, and the West also, that despite their vows to go on warpath, they are confronted with sobering restraints. Among these are Peiping's requirements for Soviet petroleum products, spare parts and replacements for its ground, air and naval forces.
"One of the most serious restraints on Red Chinese freedom of action is the military power of Free China on Taiwan and on the off-shore islands of Quemoy and Matsu. True, Mao continues his threats to take Taiwan. But, here again, he and his strategists know the difference between propaganda and the military facts of life. They are fully aware that the invasion route between the mainland and Taiwan can run in both directions.
"Thus, the threat of President Chiang Kai-shek's return to the mainland has a heavy impact on Red China's freedom of maneuver. The possibility of an attack by the Free Chinese is directly responsible for the commitment of close to 700,000 Communist troop to the defense against such an assault on the mainland. Of this total, 300,000 first-line Chinese soldiers and airmen are pinned down in the Foochow complex. This is the Red Chinese defense area opposite Taiwan, Quemoy and Matsu.
"Ironically, it's because Mao does not believe that the United States would prevent President Chiang's return to the mainland that the Reds must keep this large force immobilized against the continuing threat.
"Considering that Peiping's armed forces total 2.6 million for all of its military requirements, the force immobilized in the Foochow complex takes on increased significance. It must have prior claim on first-line troops, armored equipment and aircraft. For instance, of the about 2,500 Russian-made jets in the Red Chinese Air Force, close to 1,700 of them are in the Foochow area. This includes some late model MIG 19s and Russian IL-28 jet bombers.
"If Peiping were free from the threat of President Chiang's return to the mainland, Mao would be able to use the presently immobilized defense forces for furthering Red aggression throughout Asia. He would have at his disposal a maneuver force of close to half a million - about 300,000 from the Foochow complex plus perhaps 150,000 from those .now assigned to backing up those coastal defense units—for military action elsewhere.
"A shift of these forces toward Korea would require a quick and heavy reinforcement of United States troops there. Our ready forces in Okinawa would have to be augmented for stand-by emergencies. Mao could move the Foochow forces westward and renew his war against India. Prime Minister Nehru, who has long supported Red China's admission to the U.N., may be having second thoughts on that matter. He, together with other Indian leaders, may realize one day that the security of India is closely related to a strong Free China.
"But Mao would have other choices for employing his Foochow forces if his Taiwan flank were secure. It is with good reason that the non-Communist nations throughout Southeast Asia are keeping a close watch on the United States attitude toward President Chiang's return to the mainland. They know that if Mao were free to re-deploy his troops now pinned in the Foochow complex, they, either as 'volunteers' or openly as Chinese Communist regulars, could be carrying the tide of Red aggression, throughout Southeast Asia. Such an increased capability for Peiping could well require a United States military effort on the magnitude of Korea to prevent Communist conquest of the Southeastern Asian peninsula, including the strategically important base at Singapore."
Mao's Eye for Position
Under the headline "Mao Takes Lead In Ban-Bomb Drive," the British Observer said August 4: "Mao Tse-tung has always had a good eye for ground. He must feel he could hardly have picked a better terrain for a showdown with his implacable enemy than that chosen by Mr. Khrushchev when he initiated the test ban treaty with Britain and the United States.
"The Soviet Union can henceforth be represented as one of a tiny egotistical minority of atomic Western Powers that have 'made their pile' and now want to keep everyone else poor.
"In no other sphere could Red China hope to find such an overwhelming majority of 'have not' states on whose sensibilities she might work. Experts estimate that it will be at least five years before the Red Chinese can build their own stockpile of nuclear deterrents and develop the means to deliver them. Meanwhile, Mao cannot endorse the Moscow agreement.
"He has turned the situation to account, however, by proposing a conference of all nations to outlaw nuclear weapons. If Red China has no hydrogen bombs, no other country should have any either. This is only fair, it is reckoned in Peiping, where demographers have calculated that by 1980 there will be one billion Chinese.
"Mao has in effect seized the leadership of what may become a universal 'ban-the-bomb' drive that will allow Red China to continue to experiment and later make nuclear weapons as long as it produces no concrete results. It will also provide a simple and popular issue over which to villify and discredit Khrushchev in the international Communist movement and the underdeveloped countries.
"The Peiping propaganda machine is already contending that in a world divided between blackmailing nuclear imperialists and the peace-loving millions, Khrushchev is to be placed firmly among the imperialists. The 90-day withdrawal clause in the test-ban agreement is explained as a device whereby the signatories can start testing again whenever they like, while the Socialist countries are bullied into remaining non-nuclear for good.
"Mr. Khrushchev could hardly have committed a more heinous crime than this in Red Chinese eyes, and behind Peiping's deafening demonstrations of pious horror Mao may well be smiling. For the Red Chinese leader the Sino-Soviet collision has for long been inevitable. Red China's distrust of Russia as a rapacious expansionist neighbor dates from Tsarist times.
"Subsequently, Soviet attempts to direct the Red Chinese Revolution revealed the duplicity and cynical pragmatism of the Russians, who condemned Mao's peasant revolution and favored President Chiang Kai-shek against the Communists much of the time. Finally, Khrushchev—whom Mao regards as an upstart continued the sad record by preaching peaceful coexistence.
"The world is being shaken by a very personal quarrel. It is a reflection of Mao's determination to remain in power, for he must go if there is be a lasting Sino-Soviet reconciliation, and he knows Khrushchev wants to get rid of him. Whoever succeeds him will need Soviet support against his rivals.
"Mao is therefore the supreme obstacle to Soviet domination. He has struggled to prevent Khrushchev from turning Red China into a granary and purveyor of raw materials to highly industrialized Socialist states.
"This week Pravda accused Mao of recommending 'go it alone' policies for Communist countries, and of refusing to recognize the virtues of Comecon, the Council for Economic Co-ordination which could easily become the instrument for retarding Red China's industrial growth.
"Mao thus faces a clear choice: 'follow my leader' or fight. The ultimate objective of his ideological offensive against Moscow may have been the leadership of the Communist camp, but its immediate purpose was to assert Red China's political independence. Today it is being widened into a nationalistic and racial campaign against Russia for which he can rally spontaneous support.
"Red China becomes the champion of the underdog nations in the non-nuclear continents. Communist China is independent of Russia and has little to lose. However forlorn his hopes may prove, Mao does not propose that Red China should serve Russia's ends, but that it should serve Red China's.
"Although a fervent advocate of world revolution, Mao can be expected to show traditional Chinese flexibility. But to discredit Khrushchev he must make trouble. The more he feints and threatens in India, Laos and Vietnam, the more he may expose the falseness of Khrushchev's position as a Communist leader trying to live in peace with the capitalist world. And his object must be to provoke 'the true Marxist Leninists' inside and outside the Soviet Union to rebel against the latter's dictates and throw him out.
"The Communist Chinese cannot believe that Khrushchev could stand by and allow Washington to order a nuclear attack against Red China, without himself being torn apart by his fellow Communists. Nor do they think that Russian and American interest can ever be reconciled, or that Khrushchev's initials on the test-ban agreement mean anything much. The occasion is one on which the excellent possibilities for exploitation outweigh any fear.