It is a happy occasion to me to address your luncheon meeting today. I am particularly pleased that you have indicated that you want me to speak on the subject of "The Republic of China and Its Role in the Future of Asia." I find that Americans everywhere are anxiously eager to know what is going to happen in Asia in the months and years which lie directly ahead. There is a general recognition that the coming events in the Far East are going to affect, vitally, the well-being of the American people. When my good friend, Colonel Laurence Eliot Bunker, who understands Asia so well, suggested this subject, I welcomed it.
I must serve warning in advance that I cannot bring you as bright and as cheerful a message as I would like to convey. I think you will agree with me that we have had altogether too much wishful thinking on the Asian subject. In normal times a little wishful thinking is not a bad thing. But these are not normal times-they are tragic and fear-haunted times. What is desperately needed, if we are to meet the future with intelligence, is the courage to face even the bitter truth. In the presence of a cruel enemy, we cannot let down our guard. What I am going to attempt today is an objective view of the Asian situation.
The situation in Asia today is made very uncertain because of the widespread grip of neutralism upon the Southeast Asian nations. In this whole area, only the Republic of China, now temporarily based on Taiwan, the Republic of Korea, the Kingdom of Thailand, and the Republic of the Philippines are free from this neutralist blight. Communist subversion, operating under the protection of neutralism, is spreading like an evil slime over the whole South Asia scene.
I became uncomfortably familiar with Asian neutralism during my years as Ambassador in Tokyo. During my four years in Japan, I talked much with the important statesmen of the various Southeast Asian nations who came and went as visitors. In their unguarded moments, they revealed to me their point of view. Most of them are agreed that a third world war is inescapable. When it comes, they want their nations to stay out of it. They are convinced that it will best serve their nations to let the United States and Soviet Russia do the fighting. When hostilities are over, if they have remained neutral, they believe they will be the ultimate winners.
How frequently I have heard these statesmen suggest, in their conversations, that every effort must be made not to offend Soviet Russia. The legend of a vengeful Soviet Russia, which is quick to retaliate by frontal attacks or by subversion, is strong in the Asian mind. On the other hand, there is a general assumption among many in Asia that the United States is not to be feared in the same sense. "The United States has regard for the decencies of international intercourse," they explain, and they are convinced that Americans will not violate the code of honor among nations, even if provoked. For this reason, there is less fear of the United States than of Russia. The consequence of this rooted point of view is that Southeast Asia remains silent when Russia explodes nuclear weapons in its tests, while protesting loudly when the United States does likewise.
In practice, neutralism is not neutralism at all. It is a subterfuge under which an insecure nation can be pro-Russian and pro- Communist in Asian affairs, while stopping short of becoming an outright Communist satellite. Frankness compels us to admit that nations pursuing the neutralist line are today in an extremely advantageous position. They enjoy the best of two worlds. They extract aid from both the United States and from Russia. An instance is President Sukarno of Indonesia, one of the foremost exponents of neutralism. Sukarno told his confidential secretary that he was greatly impressed, during his world tour, by the example of Tito. The Yugoslav dictator, he said, by making appropriate gestures to each side, had been able to secure rich economic and military aid, both from the East and from the West. More than one of the Southeast Asian rulers is today attempting to learn lessons from the astute Tito.
What has happened recently in the Middle East and in Hungary has had a profound effect upon the Asian nations. Neutralist Asians are convinced, from the outcome of these events, that Russia is playing her international cards much more shrewdly than is the United States. The inevitable result will be an increased inclination by the Asian neutralists to conciliate Russia.
It will be asked, what is the role of Communist-ruled China in this backing and filling which is taking place in South and Southeast Asia. The task of the Chinese Communists, as defined by Stalin, is to deliver Asia to Communism. Red China is on the march in furthering this objective. What happened in Egypt and Hungary has strengthened the determination of the Peiping regime to proceed with this task. We may expect an increased assurance, on the part of the Chinese Communists, during the coming period.
The Communist intrigues in Indonesia supply a significant illustration. Indonesia is a prime objective of the Russians and Red Chinese. To draw Indonesia into its orbit, Soviet Union, several months ago, granted the new country an economic advance of $1,000,000.
Meanwhile, Red China has been cultivating Laos and Cambodia, successor states to .e former French Indo-China. Neutralist Cambodia received $22,000,000 in aid from Red China, and Laos received a trade credit of 14,000,000. Although the United States has given generously to both countries, this Communist aid has aroused widespread pro-Communist sentiment in both nations.
It will not be easy for Communism to win Indonesia due to opposition of her Moslem population, but there are revealing signs that it is working steadily and confidently toward that end. Indonesia's Communist Party is the fourth largest political party in the country. Its leaders have repeatedly said that the worse conditions become in the archipelago, the brighter will be the Communist prospects. In the country's first election in 1955, the Communist Party attracted 6,000,000 votes out of a total of 38,000,000. It has announced that it will give its support to the shaky coalition government, which Sukarno heads, while bitterly opposing the rival Moslem Party. While I have no crystal ball, it would appear to me that Indonesia, with its 82,000,000 people and its fabulously rich natural resources, is the most likely of the Southeast Asian nations to succumb to Communism. If it happens, Indonesia is likely to move toward Communism by gradual steps, which will deceive many Western observers, who like to cling to their wishful thinking.
Burma is another country which is in acute danger. Burma has actually experienced armed Communist invasions during the past year. So far, the central Burmese government has been unable to reach a settlement with Peiping concerning the recent Communist seizure of Burmese territory. The familiar pattern of Communist conquest is appearing in Burma in the recent action of the Shan State, which abuts on the Red China frontier. The Shan State, which. embraces 56,000 square miles-seven times the size of Massachusetts-has declared publicly that it would be "much better off" if it seceded from the Union of Burma and became an independent nation. This 'move, it is plain, was instigated by Red China.
Time does not permit me to do more than mention the alarming spread of Communist influence in Malaya, Singapore, India, Japan and other key Asian countries. Suffice it to say that Red infiltration in all these countries has been pervasive and rapid ..
I am frequently asked what the Republic of China is doing to counter the subversive advances of the Communists.
May I say that, since the signing of the Security Pact with the United States in 1954, Free China has advanced steadily on three fronts-political, economic and military.
Politically, my Government has demonstrated its determination that the partnership with the United States shall not be a one-sided affair by making Taiwan a veritable fortress of the free world in Asia. It has made certain that it has a sound and firmly anti-Communist population behind it by thoroughly imbuing the 10,000,000 people on Taiwan with anti-Communism. The strong national administration headed by President Chiang Kai-shek has extended popular participation in the government at national, provincial, district and local levels. Taiwan today is an oasis of democracy in a barren stretch of Red misrule.
Economically, the standard of living of the people has been sharply raised since the transfer of the seat of government of the Republic of China from the mainland to the province of Taiwan. The staple food, rice, now is raised in sufficient quantity to feed the population and have an export surplus of more than two hundred thousand tons. There has been a steady increase in the production of other grains, and in the output of raw materials and manufactured articles for home consumption, as well as for sale in the Southeast Asian areas. A number of government-controlled industries have been turned over to the people for their management.
Military preparations are even more marked. A modern draft law has been enacted by our legislature, and a new replacement system is in full swing. The average age of armed men has been lowered to twenty-five. The system requires the drafting of young men reaching their twentieth birthday to serve two years in the ground force, or three years in the navy and the air force. They are then released into the reserve or the reservist pool where they receive part-time training for five years. As a result of the adoption of the draft system and of the intensive training of new and old troops with American assistance, twenty-five combat divisions, fully armed, are now ready to take the field. The cost for their maintenance is less than the cost of the maintenance of a single American division.
What is the contribution of the Republic of China to free world security? .These half million dedicated soldiers, under the inspiring leadership of President Chiang, have immobilized more than half of Red China's armed forces. Had it not been for the threat of Taiwan, all of Red China's forces would have been shifted elsewhere and would have become a menace to other areas in Asia. As it is, she is continuously fearful of the possibility of a landing by the troops of the Republic of China along China's long sea coast and hence finds it necessary to keep huge and costly forces opposite the offshore islands of Taiwan.
Under America's leadership and inspiration, a three-prong Pacific defense against further Communist aggression in Asia has been virtually completed. The three prongs are Taiwan under the Republic of China, the Philippines under the Republic of the Philippines, and Okinawa under American occupation. The linking of these three groups of islands, in defensive strength, serves as a powerful constraint upon Communist continued expansion in Asia. In the event of Red China's making an open assault at any point in Asia, collective resistance can be turned into a powerful force for offense without difficulty or delay. Communism must always expand, if it is to survive. It cannot relax. Red China's next overt move is only a question of time. So far as the Republic of China is concerned, it knows Communism intimately, and is prepared for any ordinary or extraordinary Communist move. That is the positive side of the plan of the Republic of China to cope with the Communist situation in Asia.
We also engage extensively in psychological warfare.
The Republic of China has worked out a plan to keep all the non-Communist nations alertly aware of the nature of strategy of the Communist menace. Part of the plan is being regularly carried out. It consists of twenty-hour· broadcasts from half a dozen powerful transmitters located on Taiwan. The broadcasts warn the listeners that Communism in Red China is repeating the same false moves by which it undermined the constitutional government of China before 1949, and deceived world opinion. These moves include an insincere praise of peace, a hypocritical pretense of friendship for non-Communist Chinese leaders, the making of threats to less determined persons which are calculated to enlist their support for Communist rule in China, and a continuous stream of lies about actual Communist aims.
Misguided voices in Europe and America urging the free world to do nothing against the Communists for fear of provoking them into starting a third world war, and asking the United States to treat the bad boy, Red China, nicely in the hope that she might turn away from her master, Soviet Russia, ultimately, and ally herself with the free nations, have more than counteracted what little good has been accomplished by our daily broadcasts and other information activities. They tend greatly to strengthen the tendency toward pro-Communist neutralism. Some of the Asian nations have taken these confused and confusing words of advice I as the authentic voice of the West. They have understandably concluded that if the West intends to compromise with Communism it would be folly for them to stick out their necks and have them chopped off by the broad sword of Moscow.
Throughout our broadcasts and other publicity channels, we have also been warning the non-Communist Asian nations that the economic offensive of the Communists against them has been launched and the sole objective of the offensive is to deprive the producing nations of markets, dislocate their industries, create discontent among their laborers, stir up political upheavals, and soften them for Communist rule. Communism thrives on poverty, but the nations like Japan which are bending their efforts to in crease trade with Red China and reduce the list of articles banned by the free nations from export to Red China, are using trade as a pro-Communist weapon. They are supported by some leaders in the West who have been advocating unlimited trade with Red China and other Communist countries. To the Communists who are straining their efforts to obtain their objective of world domination, any material which they can acquire either for strategic use or for economic use is of great value. Unfortunately our voice of warning is like the voice crying in the wilderness.
The Republic of China has also formulated plans for trade expansion in the Southeast Asian nations with the object of slowing down Communist expansion. Our influence in the area still remains strong. There are more than twelve million overseas Chinese living there. Despite Communist propaganda and promises of good treatment, most of them continue to be loyal to the national cause. A large number of them have refused to handle Communist goods which are sold fifteen per cent below the Japanese goods with handsome profits for the dealers. More of them are willing to distribute the goods made with free labor on Taiwan. We have not done much in this field owing to the lack of capital and engineers. However, the United States, aware of the value of this strategy, has been giving us much economic aid.
As to the future for Asia, it is very dark and disheartening. Neutrality should not be approved in a world where issues are so clearly drawn between good and evil. Communist subversion by political and economic means in the Asian nations is no longer operated clandestinely. It is now out in the open where the world can see it. Disloyal subjects of Thailand have been given full military training and are ready to be smuggled into their native country for subversive activities. Chinese Communists enter Malaya and Singapore without any difficulty to fight the lawful authorities. Hongkong is full of Communist agents, and it can be taken over by them under the guise of popular demand almost overnight. Such are some of the grim realities of present-day Asia.
One thing, and one thing alone, deters the Chinese Communists from bringing issues to a head. They do not know precisely what the United States would do in the event of a Communist seizure of new territory in Asia. Korea taught them a painful lesson not to take the Americans for granted. Stalin, when he gave the order for the attack on South Korea in 1950, was certain that the United States would do nothing. The quick American and United Nations reply came to him like a bolt out of the sky. The Communists will be careful not to make the same mistake again. But this does not discourage them from infiltration and constant subversive activities.
War or peace in Asia hangs on a hair's breadth. It is well for those who are formulating public opinion in this country to keep this truth steadily in mind. The Communists are cleverly taking advantage of American free speech and free press to undermine American determination to oppose further Communist expansion. They are corroding the American will to resist Communist aggression in Asia by sowing theoretical confusion in the minds of Americans. Many well-meaning persons are being taken in by this game, and are unconsciously helping Communism's Asiatic designs by their appeasement talk.
Only a strong and alert free world can escape the deadly trap which Communism has prepared for it. This, I believe, is the supreme challenge which faces American statesmanship in the Far East. This is not a moment for American over-confidence or wishful thinking. It is a moment for realism, for unfaltering courage, and for unwavering belief in the rightness of our cause. Thus armed, we shall win the ultimate victory.
Editor's Note — This is an address delivered by Dr. Hollington K. Tong, Ambassador of the Republic of China to the United States, at a luncheon of the State Club, Boston, Massachusetts, January 30, 1957.