Will China be different? Beijing believes it will be, though it concedes there are worries in the world about its future course. As one of its senior diplomats, Fu Ying, said in a 2004 interview with the Sydney Morning Herald, "There is a fear about the future orientation of Chinese foreign policy. It is not surprising, because in world history many big powers rose and caused earthquakes."
But being a huge country with a big population to take care of, China is going to primarily engage with its [internal] problems for a long time to come. And for that, it would need a peaceful environment around it so it could develop its economy and create conditions for social stability and harmony.
With deft diplomacy, Beijing has hammered this message of "peaceful rise" for some time now, stressing its economic growth and resultant opportunities for the region.
Not long ago, for instance, it was involved in intractable sovereignty disputes over the Nansha (Spratly) and other island groups. Although sovereignty issues are not resolved, China now seeks a peaceful resolution to emphasize joint development of economic resources. It has taken some important initiatives, like the free-trade agreement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and is more engaged in multilateral forums as it seeks to reduce U.S. domination in the region. It does not, however, stigmatize those of its neighbors that maintain close political and security links with the United States, such as Australia, but is willing to overlook such factors and develop relations with them.
In other words, China has managed to create a largely benign image of its growing power, and its neighbors are adapting to the reality of China's power, keen to partake of opportunities that might result.
It is not all smooth sailing, however. The United States, for instance, tends to see China as a strategic competitor, if not a rival. It sees danger from China's growing military power.
The United States is worried about China's hunt for resources worldwide to charge its economic growth. In a September 2005 Foreign Affairs article, David Zweig and Bi Jianhai commented that while China's resources hunt has been a boon to some states, especially developing countries; for other states, particularly the United States and Japan, China's insatiability is causing concern.
They added, "Some governments worry as Beijing enters their spheres of influence or strikes deals with states they have tried to marginalize. In some quarters in Washington, including the Pentagon, the intelligence services and Congress, the fear that China could challenge U.S. military dominance in East Asia and destabilize the region is rising."
It remains to be seen how this power conundrum between a rising superpower and one already entrenched will be resolved. If history is any guide, it has the potential for trouble, particularly with flashpoints like Taiwan and North Korea.
China-Japan relations are another problem. Even though China and Japan have a very lucrative economic relationship, until recently, their political relationship was in deep freeze. Visits between their two prime ministers created a thaw, though prospects of significant improvement seem daunting. China resents Japan's attempted whitewashing of its wartime atrocities by revising history textbooks or officials' visits to the Yasukuni shrine. The two nations have other outstanding issues, such as the maritime-boundary dispute in the East China Sea where China continues to drill despite Japan's calls for a moratorium. China is not keen on Japan becoming a regional rival, as is evident from its refusal to support Tokyo's bid for permanent membership of the U.N. Security Council.
Beijing is also unhappy at the growing U.S.-Japan security ties and erosion of Japan's pacifist constitution.
China might have managed to create a largely benign regional image of its power, but it has not done so with the United States and Japan. As long as this remains, the Asia-Pacific region will continue to have strategic uncertainty.
--S.P. Seth is a free-lance writer based in Sydney, Australia.
Copyright 2007 by S.P. Seth
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