At its July 18 party congress, Taiwan’s opposition Democratic Progressive Party had good reason for optimism. Through sheer determination and relentless campaigning, it has managed to shed some of the disillusionment and disappointment caused by the ineffective administration of former ROC president and one-time paladin Chen Shui-bian.
To restore confidence, the DPP returned to basics. It resurrected its original anti-corruption platform, re-emphasized its concern for the environment, and reiterated its commitment to championing the cause of those who do not always share in the prosperity of Taiwan.
Just as importantly, the party selected for the five November mayoral special elections for upgraded or new municipalities some of its most impressive candidates. In the race for the upgraded municipality of Kaohsiung, the DPP chose Chen Chu, and for Taipei City, Su Tseng-chang—two of Taiwan’s most likable politicians. Both are pragmatic, infectiously optimistic and good on the stump.
If these two candidates represent the easygoing optimism and approachability that is a notable feature of the people of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, DPP chairwoman and candidate for Xinbei City, represents a different but equally recognizable type. She is the studious and impressive overachiever. When she took over as party leader, few doubted the power of her intellect, but she has proven to be a populist politician as well. Tsai might lack the natural affability of Chen Chu or Su Tseng-chang, but she has pressed the party’s case strategically and without respite.
All of this bodes well for the November elections, and the DPP has a fair chance of winning the highly symbolic races for Xinbei, which is holding its first mayoral election as a new municipality, and for Taipei, the capital city and a springboard for presidential campaigns.
The November elections, moreover, will be used as an indicator of national sentiment in the run-up to the 2012 legislative and presidential electoral contests. If the DPP performs well, the party will argue, as good politics demands, that momentum will carry it to victory in 2012. And yet here is where this logic begins to crumble.
Even in victory, the DPP has secured only tenuous support for national leadership. In 2000, when the party became the first to oust the Kuomintang and win the presidency, it benefited from KMT squabbling, which split the party and helped the DPP win the three-man race without a majority. In 2004, the DPP won by just over 50 percent. Neither result indicated resounding public support for the party’s national platform. And just why is this?
For all its progress in challenging Taiwan’s once-closed political system and ushering in a more democratic and open government, the DPP has been unable to find a successful national strategy to promote diplomatic goals, invigorate the economy and ensure that national security concerns are met. And at the heart of this problem is the party’s failure to lay out a comprehensive policy for dealing with mainland China.
In fact, when the DPP held the presidency, trade and transportation links with the mainland increased, albeit at a much slower pace than at present. This is a patent acknowledgement that the relationship with the mainland is too important to ignore.
When the DPP denounces further trade and transportation links with the mainland during elections, a credibility gap therefore emerges between this demonizing rhetoric and the more open attitude it has shown toward cross-strait trade when it was actually responsible for the economic well-being of the people of Taiwan.
In part, this is due to the nature of a competitive multiparty political system, which demands a sharpening of policy distinctions during elections in order to give voters a clearer choice. There is, in fact, considerably more consensus in Taiwan on the benefits of cross-strait economic engagement than the DPP would have voters believe.
In its recent campaign against the Cross-strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), essentially a limited free-trade agreement with mainland China, the DPP demanded a referendum. Yet, there has already been a national vote on the issue.
In 2008, President Ma Ying-jeou campaigned on a platform of engaging with mainland China to boost Taiwan’s economy and ease tensions across the strait, and he received over 58 percent of the vote. A second referendum on the course of Taiwan’s national leadership and the growing economic links with the mainland will be held in 2012, when voters cast ballots in the legislative and presidential elections.
The DPP has yet to offer a clear alternative to the KMT’s mainland policy—one that seriously addresses both stability and the importance of cross-strait trade. At present, this is the missing plank in a successful national platform. Without it, the DPP’s success in revivifying the party will produce positive results only in local elections.
—Robert Green is a freelance writer based in New York. These views are the author’s and not necessarily those of Taiwan Today. Copyright © 2010 by Robert Green