The U.S.-Japan mutual defense treaty continues to serve as the cornerstone of U.S. security strategy in the Asia-Pacific and as the bedrock for peace and security in the region. The pact, which has allowed the U.S. to maintain a forward presence in the region for decades, has led to Asia’s miraculous prosperity over the past decades.
In having a beneficial, direct effect on the security of countries in the region—both friends and rivals—in the coming decades, the treaty will remain just as important as it was in the previous century for the maintenance of peace and stability in Asia.
This is especially important given the continuing rise of mainland China. The remarkable and ongoing modernization of its People’s Liberation Army has upset the balance of power in the region.
Over the coming years and decades, Beijing will be increasingly capable of settling disputes via coercion and force. This bodes well for no one; the unification of Taiwan remains the PLA modernization’s primary driver, but mainland China also wishes to be able to dictate terms to Japan, South Korea and countries throughout Southeast Asia.
Beijing’s emerging ability to check attempts by Washington to project U.S. power into the region, and its growing ability to project its own power around its periphery, pose threats to American interests and American allies.
Mainland China’s growing short-range missile arsenal and fleet of modern aircraft could be used to destroy much of Taiwan and strike devastating blows against U.S. forces in Japan. Put simply, Beijing is becoming a peer competitor the likes of which Washington has not seen since the Cold War’s end.
The U.S.-Japan treaty is crucial for countering this threat. The pact provides the U.S. with important forward basing in the Asia-Pacific. Without the Japanese port of Yokosuka, it would become much more difficult to maintain a carrier battle group on station in the region at all times.
Such basing has allowed the U.S. to maintain a forward defense perimeter to protect its own shores and has made possible ongoing presence missions in the region. This allows for more consistent intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance via surface, subsurface and air assets. Most importantly, however, this allows the U.S. to keep an eye on what mainland China and North Korea are up to.
In this way, the U.S.-Japan treaty serves to reassure others in the region. It provides American allies and partners with confidence that the U.S. is dedicated to maintaining peace and stability in the region.
This U.S. presence is particularly reassuring for Taiwan, which is under constant military threat from mainland China. Taiwan, perhaps more than any other country, is grateful for the home porting of a U.S. aircraft carrier in Japan; it was not that long ago that the U.S. sent carriers to the seas around Taiwan to put a stop to PLA missile tests in those very waters.
The U.S.-Japan alliance also reassures countries in the region that Japan will not return to its militarism of the early 20th century. The actions of Imperial Japan continue to affect the nation’s relations with its neighbors in the present day. The U.S.-Japan treaty checks potential Japanese expansionist ambitions and stabilizes the region.
The U.S.-Japan pact has had important economic effects as well. Since its inception, Japan was able to devote resources to its economic development rather than a costly military buildup. Japan thrived as a result, and has driven growth elsewhere in Asia as well. In 2009, Japan’s trade in goods with mainland China, South Korea and Taiwan was valued at $232 billion, $69 billion and $55 billion, respectively—when Japan thrives, Asia thrives.
Economic success, moreover, has allowed Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to make wise, targeted defense investments. Knowing that the U.S. is committed to the region, none of these countries have needed to build large navies or expeditionary forces. Instead, they have been able to focus on capabilities needed for their own defense and on capabilities that will allow them to inter-operate with U.S. forces.
Without its alliance with the U.S., Japan might be tempted to bandwagon with a rising mainland China; South Korea and Southeast Asia would likely follow suit, which would threaten U.S. interests. In such an eventuality, Taiwan would feel particularly isolated and would rely even more heavily on a U.S. less able to lend it support.
Of course, instead of bandwagoning in the absence of a U.S.-Japan treaty, Tokyo could also pursue its own robust military modernization program to compete with the PLA. This might very well lead to arms racing across the region, which would be highly destabilizing.
As long as the U.S.-Japan security relationship remains strong, Taiwan should feel confident in its own security. Taiwan should also feel confident to engage with mainland China. Knowing that it need not fear coercion, Taipei can expand ties with Beijing, deepening economic and social links in search of greater prosperity for Taiwan’s people.
The U.S.-Japan alliance keeps the balance of power in Asia manageable and is of crucial importance for ensuring that the balance continues to favor America and her allies. Washington and Tokyo should continue to nurture and strengthen their alliance, so that it can continue to serve as the cornerstone for peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific in the 21st century.
Dan Blumenthal is Resident Fellow at American Institute of Public Policy Research. This commentary is an excerpt from a paper presented Oct. 5 at International Symposium on 50 Years of US-Japan Security Alliance and the Security of Taiwan organized by Taiwan National Security Institute in Taipei. Copyright © 2010 by Dan Blumenthal
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