Veteran foreign correspondent Keyes Beech wrote in the New York Post June 27 that the fact Peiping is afraid of invasion is a vivid reminder of how times have changed.
He said: "For a decade it has been Red China with 650,000,000 people threatening Chiang's Formosa with 11,000,000. Now the roles are reversed.
"Cause of this historic switch is Red China's desperate economic plight. The Chinese (on the mainland) are hungry, a fact dramatically demonstrated by the waves of refugees that beat at Hongkong's borders last month.
"Peking has confessed its fears by moving whole divisions of troops into Fukien province—which lies in sight of Nationalist-held offshore islands—and evacuating civilians from coastal areas where invaders might land. These actions have been confirmed beyond reasonable doubt.
"Peking also expressed its alarm in a long propaganda broadcast Saturday—the first official comment from the Communist capital acknowledging the Nationalist threat.
"Read in its entirety, this broadcast was most revealing. It was a curious mixture of bravado and fear.
"For Chiang to invade, Peking said, would be to 'court self-destruction, like an egg knocking itself against a stone.'
"Yet in the next paragraph Peking said it would be a mistake to underestimate the Nationalists. The Red broadcast anticipated that in the event of a successful landing Chiang would attempt to build up his strength by recruiting 'able-bodied men' in the coastal areas."
Hunger & War
The New York Mirror pointed out on June 26 that it is an indisputable historic fact that when the people are hungry, the masters become unpopular and then comes war.
It said: "Comes summer and the Red Chinese plan to blow up Quemoy and Matsu, to conquer Formosa, to destroy the United States Navy and presumably to take Los Angeles, including Marilyn Monroe.
"After a while, the Reds usually subside. This year, however, it may be different. The people of Red China are so hungry that they seem to be willing to go anywhere to get some food. Their masters are no longer popular. It is an indisputable historic fact that when the people are hungry, the masters become unpopular and then comes war.
"The Chinese people are in distress and the Red Chinese leaders are trying to divert them from their distress to emotional anti-Americanism. It could mean trouble."
The London Times said on June 23 that "it is possible to argue that the threat of an assault mounted from Formosa is sufficiently alive in the minds of China's leaders for it to be a defensive concentration; even if such an assault could be no political threat to Peking it could create the kind of disorder that might add seriously to China's present burdens. The recent storming of the Hongkong border was evidence of an unstable temper in these somewhat detached and volatile maritime provinces. And if the fears were great enough attack might seem the best method of defense."
Hot Season
The Manchester Guardian noted on June 28 that "certainly the hot season is approaching in the northern hemisphere, when tempers are short, patience is easily exhausted, and the annual international crisis bursts.
"But it still seems unlikely that this year's version will arise from a Chinese (Communist) attempt to invade the offshore islands .... The atmosphere is very different from that in 1958, when the last attempt was made to capture the offshore islands.
"That was the year of the 'great leap forward,' when the Chinese government, in a mood of overconfidence, was pushing through a series of harsh measures that did indeed require a sense of national fervour to make them palatable. Now the prevailing mood is one of caution and retreat. Peking could not afford another failure."
The New York Times said on June 24: "It was believed that the Chinese Communists might be carrying out a probing action in light of possible uncertainty about U.S. policy toward the offshore islands.
"Another theory was that Peiping might be seeking to divert attention—both at home and abroad—from the serious economic and agricultural difficulties with which she is beset."
The Herald Tribune mused on June 26: "It is a very real question whether Red China, ideologically at odds with the Soviet Union, embroiled with India and involved in the tense situation in Laos and South Vietnam, would be anxious under any circumstances to mount a major military effort against the Nationalists. The deepening economic crisis in China could well be decisive in blocking such a step.
"But the ways of Mao's government are devious and dark. The tension in the Formosa Straits may dissolve as suddenly as it arose.
"But vigilance and preparedness are far better guides to policy than wishful thinking, however sound the ground for optimism may seem to be."
To Divert Attention
The Daily Mail of London speculated on June 22 that the Communist build-up "might mean an attack on Quemoy and Matsu to divert American attention from South Vietnam, or to divert the attention of the people from their own problems."
"It is always possible that Peking, in classic tradition, saw a chance to distract its people from their troubles at home," said the Christian Science Monitor on June 26.
The paper pointed out on June 25: "To United States citizens it may appear ridiculous to believe that the Chinese Nationalists are seriously contemplating a mainland invasion and even more ridiculous to think that Peking seriously believes Washington would back such an attempt.
"But Peking's perspective is, of course, different from that of Washington's, and at the moment the Chinese Communist leadership appears to be in a hyper-suspicious and embattled mood.
"Its quarrel with Moscow is unresolved. The summer harvest is poor, and prospects for fall are not bright. Local unrest seems to be growing, and although there is no solid evidence yet of a breakdown in administrative controls, there is always the danger that the more controls are relaxed, the more difficult it will become to restore them."
Red Miscalculation
Commenting on President Kennedy's statement that the United States has not changed its policy toward the offshore islands, the Washington Post expressed its hope on June 29 that this time the Chinese Communists should have made no miscalculation.
Reprinted from the Washington Daily News
It said: "The Communist Chinese had many motives for the Quemoy and Matsu attacks four years ago. They hoped that the offshore islands could be blockaded and forced to surrender without an invasion. They thought this would destroy the U.S.-Nationalist alliance. They felt that perhaps the United States and Nationalists, to save the islands, would bomb the mainland and bring the U. S. S. R. into war. They guessed that America's allies might persuade the United States not to risk a war over two small islands, and induce the Nationalists to evacuate the islands.
"The 1958 attack commenced on August The Communist strategy did not work. The blockade failed. The United States built up its forces to six carriers, three heavy cruisers and 40 destroyers. It supplied the Nationalists with the Sidewinder missiles. It escorted convoys with American fighters. It furnished Taiwan with missiles. But the most important, the so-called 'obduracy' of Secretary Dulles. On October 6, the Communists proclaimed a cease-fire. In the word of Zagoria who wrote the book The Sino-Soviet Conflict, 'Mao Tse-tung, having undertaken a venture on the basis of a calculation of the balance of power which was not shared by Khrushchev, was forced to make a public and humiliating withdrawal.'
"It is to be hoped there will not be a similar miscalculation now. The intention and will of the United States remains what it was in 1958. The world balance of power is even less favorable to the Chinese Communist purpose than it was then. The military forces in the Straits are just as formidable. In any reasonable estimate of the situation, the prospects of Chinese Communist success are not as good now as they were then. Events of 1958 made it clear the islands can be supplied. They demonstrated this country's unwillingness to compel the Nationalists to retire under fire. They disclosed that the Soviet Union was no more ready than the United States to plunge into a civil war on the Chinese mainland. The great powers, if anything, are more cautious now than they were then."
Dismay & Demoralization
On the importance of offshore islands in the current world situation, Joseph Alsop wrote in the Herald Tribune June 27 that "passive U. S. toleration of a successful Communist aggression in the Formosa Straits will spread dismay and demoralization in every friendly and uncommitted Asian nation."
He said: "The Asian repercussions will be exceedingly dangerous. But the feedback into the Berlin crisis will be even more dangerous. For an argument is plainly going on in Moscow about the degree of U. S. resolution to defend Berlin. If we are not ready to stand up and be counted on the offshore islands where the situation is favorable to us, Russian leaders like Marshal Malinovsky will automatically infer that we cannot possibly be ready to stand up and be counted at Berlin, where the local situation is most unfavorable."
"Well, a Little Diversion Wouldn't Be Bad!" (File photo)
Referring to the words of Under Secretary of State George W. Ball that the Communists would suffer "extremely costly" losses if they tried to invade Quemoy and Matsu, the New York Journal-American said in its editorial June 27: "Regardless of treaty or other considerations, loss of Quemoy and Matsu would be a devastating blow to anti-Communist morale and 'face' throughout Asia.
"We're glad the Seventh Fleet is churning up the Formosa Straits between the mainland and Chiang Kai-shek's Taiwan stronghold. This massive array of power should cause Peiping to think twice about rocking any boats."
Budapest in China
William F. Buckley, Jr., predicted in the June 9 issue of the Chicago Daily News that "There is going to be a Budapest in China."
The columnist continued: "For several years we have heard stories about hunger in mainland China. During the past year, we are beginning to know something about the extent of the famine.
"It is hunger on a massive scale, the kind of hunger that makes whole peoples go mad.
"Even a people for whom hardship is a way of life cannot be expected to endure passively what amounts to genocidal self-slaughter. And here is a datum of great strategic consequence.
"It is more likely than not that there will be an explosion within mainland China within the next year or two. An insurrection in a city, the defection of a group of officers, a critical assassination—something which will bring political crisis. At that moment Chiang Kai-shek and his anxious and highly trained army will want to strike."
The Tampa Times of Florida said on June 1: "Red China today is a big, sprawling hungry country. And all signs point to the likelihood that the pangs of famine will soon increase.
"Correspondents in Tokyo reported yesterday that bad weather is again plaguing crops on the Chinese mainland. Floods, hailstorms, cold waves and droughts have combined to create unfavorable conditions for agriculture. Adding to these woes is failure of the 'people's communes' system under which rural populations are organized into state-dominated communities. Discouraged by a lack of personal opportunity and destruction of traditional family groupings, Chinese farmers are not responding to this new arrangement with enthusiasm.
"The Peiping government has been battling the specter of starvation as desperately as it has been trying to push forward boundaries of its empire. In several instances, there is a relation between these two efforts. Penetration of Indo-China—Vietnam and Laos—is clearly an attempt by Communists to gain control over the 'rice bowl of Asia.'