For thirty years, the ROC government has vigorously promoted a program of birth control to alleviate population pressure on Taiwan's limited amount of habitable space. It now seems that the program may have been too successful. A falling birth rate coupled with an aging population is causing some concern about the future. The possible long-term consequences of this population gap and what an aging population means for the island's economic future are now being examined by government officials and population experts.
The growing concern is reflected in a new national population policy and guidelines approved in July 1992. The new policy proposes a moderate increase in population growth. It reverses earlier guidelines by encouraging earlier marriages and larger families. It also calls for improved health care and education.
In the 1920s, during Japanese colonial rule, a drop in the overall mortality rate led to a surge in population growth. The trend continued in the 1940s as baby boomers came of age and as an influx of approximately 2 million immigrants arrived from mainland China. The large child-hearing population, a preference for having large families, and a declining mortality rate all contributed to an era of rapid population growth. In 1945, when Japan returned Taiwan to China, the island had a population of 6 million. which doubled by 1964. Today, there are 20.5 million inhabitants. With a total area of 36.000 square kilometers, Taiwan has a population density of 570 people per square kilometer, second only to Bang-ladesh.
The growth in population coincided with Taiwan's rapid economic development. Thus, an ample labor supply existed during industrialization, providing man power for the new labor-intensive industries. The high population density, however, put a strain on the limited resources and infrastructure. The effects of this overcrowding are familiar: chaotic traffic, pollution, a shortage of housing, and a deteriorating social order. Consequently, in 1963 the government began to promote a birth control program on a trial basis in Taichung. The program proved so successful that the government implemented the same program islandwide in 1967. Under the slogan "Two children are just right, one is not too few," public health agencies provided birth control and family planning services free of charge.
The success of the program has indeed been remarkable. The 3.6 percent population growth of 1963 dropped to 1 percent by 1991. Demographers predict that even without active promotion on the part of the government, the island's natural population growth rate will drop be low 0.8 percent—the rate targeted in the old policy—by the year 2000. The program has won accolades from family planning agencies around the world and has been lauded as a model for developing countries.
Taiwan's demographers, however, attribute the program's success less to government involvement than to social and economic changes. Studies indicate that the birthrate actually started to decline in 1951, well before the government's promotion of birth control in 1967. It is generally believed that industrialization has played a key role. As the island moved away from an agricultural economy, values changed with socioeconomic conditions. Traditional ideas of rearing a large family and having many sons lost their appeal. Space limitations and the prohibitive costs of child care in urban areas naturally tended to curb the size of families. Having a small family became synonymous with a higher quality of life.
Another contributing factor in the decline of the birthrate has been the considerable increase in the number of women in the work force. Many women are reluctant to sacrifice their careers for the sake of rearing a large family. People are also marrying later—for men the average age is 29.8 and for women 26.5—which means fewer kids. The number of unmarried and divorced persons is also on the rise.
Given the high population density, the existing birthrate and natural population growth rates are still high when compared with the world's developed nations. The rate of population growth for all of Europe stands at only 0.3 percent and at 0.2 percent for Western Europe. Based on current projections, demographers predict that Taiwan's population will hit a peak of around 24 million within the next three or four decades. This increase will further aggravate the existing problems associated with high population density. These figures, though, do not give a complete picture of the demographic problems.
The existing birth rate is somewhat deceptive. It is the result of a large child bearing population. The 20 to 39 age group constitutes about 37 percent of the entire population. However, this group is having fewer children than their parents. The current average of 1.7 children per family is well below the 2.1 average necessary to maintain the population at a stable level. And the figure is expected to drop further. The ratio of the 15-64 age group, the main productive force of society, will continue to decline steadily. The shrinking size of the productive force will only compound the already serious labor shortage.
According to Wu Shu-tsung (吳樹叢), chief of the population section of the population administration department, Ministry of the Interior, "Facing the outlook of substantial population decline, the government has decided that the best solution is to maintain adequate population growth. The government plans to encourage married couples to raise their number of children to two, and also to encourage people to marry younger." In light of the new policy, the government has adopted a new family planning slogan: "Two children are just right."
But with such a high population density, many high-ranking government officials question the wisdom of the Ministry of the Interior's current policy, warning that the very vagueness of the policy may complicate existing problems. They note that such a policy will only induce lower-educated and lower-income people to bear more babies, while affluent, well-educated couples will continue to shun the burden of child-rearing.
The population is not only decreasing, it is also steadily aging. In 1952, the 0-14 age group accounted for 42 percent of the total population, the 15-64 age group 55 percent, and the over-65 group 3 percent. In 1990, the same age groups accounted for 27 percent, 67 percent, and 6 percent respectively. The large size of the middle-age group, coupled with increasing life expectancy (71.3 for men and 76.7 for women in 1991, compared with 53.1 and 57.3 in 1952), means that the over-65 group will be larger than ever in the future. It is estimated that 7 percent of the population will be in the over-65 bracket by 1995, right at the line set by the United Nations for designating a society as aged. The ratio will climb to 16 percent by 2024, equivalent to that of the United Kingdom.
This means that society's burden of caring for the aged will be increasingly born by a smaller percentage of the population. The ratio between the 15-64 and the over-65 age groups stood at 9:1 in 1990, which means for every retired person there were nine productive persons.
The ratio will drop to 5:1 by 2000, to 4:1 by 2024, and to 2:1 by 2040. The government's outlays for taking care of the aged will mean an increased tax burden for the work force. The greater tax burden may mean less incentive for the work force and thus a possible slowdown in economic development.
With such a high population density, demographers believe that the government should be less concerned about maintaining population growth than in coping with the problems connected with an aging population. It is imperative to get a head start on such pressing problems now. A pension fund system, health insurance, and recreational facilities for the elderly are all considered priorities. In fact, the government has already established a civil service pension fund as well as a comprehensive medical insurance program, scheduled to be implemented by 1994.
With a decreasing percentage of the population footing an increasing portion of the tax burden, there is some concern about guaranteeing the quality of life not only for the elderly but also for society as a whole. A healthier and more productive work force is essential. The importance of improved medical care, more education, and better vocational training cannot be exaggerated. An aging population also has implications for the economy. Most important is how to maintain productivity with a smaller work force. The importation of foreign labor has been proposed as a possible solution, but unwanted social problems may arise as a result. Upgrading industry through production automation appears to be the best solution for sustaining economic development. Not only would a smaller work force be required, but any potential problems caused by importing labor could also be avoided.
Finally, a means for senior citizens to continue contributing their wisdom and talent to society should also be devised. In many developed nations, volunteer organizations exist which allow retirees with special skills and knowledge to work in an advisory capacity where they are needed. Society as a whole would benefit. After all, growing old need not mean an end in productivity. —Philip Liu (劉柏登) is editor-in-chief of Business Taiwan, an English-language weekly published in Taipei.