“The ECFA is important to the continuity of cross-strait stability achieved since Taiwan’s legislative and presidential election in 2008,” Paal said during a Government Information Office-organized Taipei-New York videoconference April 7.
“It will show that better relations with mainland China are good for Taiwan and will reverse the country’s marginalization.”
Paal, now vice president for studies at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the Ma Ying-jeou administration offers a different and more realistic approach to Taipei-Beijing relations. “[Mainland] China, the U.S. and the rest of the world have welcomed the detente that has resulted.”
Chen Tain-jy, former minister of the Cabinet-level Council for Economic Planning and Development and currently an economics professor at Taipei-based National Taiwan University, echoed Paal’s comments, describing the ECFA as a “landmark” agreement that offers Taiwan the opportunity to cross new frontiers.
“The rising mainland Chinese market offers Taiwan’s companies a lot of new opportunities in the manufacturing industry and services sector,” he said. “Our shared culture gives Taiwan’s companies sizeable natural advantages.”
Chen also sees both sides pursuing a collaborative technology strategy.
“The ECFA will allow Taiwan and mainland China to pool their technologies and open up opportunities for local industry to experiment with new business models,” he said. “The island will become a gateway for foreign investors operating businesses on the mainland once the ECFA is inked.”
Daniel Rosen, visiting fellow of Peterson Institute for International Economics, said cross-strait technology synergies are just one of the many benefits that will flow from an ECFA.
“By 2020, we expect Taiwan’s economy to have grown by 5.2 percent as a result of the trade pact,” he said. “The ECFA is going to grow the Taiwan economy and this is good for the U.S.”
But Rosen cautioned that the ECFA does not amount to an economic development strategy, but rather a level playing field with competitors in the region.
“The government of Taiwan needs to think beyond an ECFA to the much harder question of how to maintain the country’s comparative economic and trade advantages.”
Philip Hsu, an associate professor at NTU’s Political Science Department, said signing an ECFA with Beijing would help foster stability between Taipei, Washington and Beijing through the peace-promoting effect of trade and investment.
“The ECFA can be seen as a de facto free trade agreement across the Taiwan Strait,” he said. “Taiwan is not doing something unusual or unique in pursuing an ECFA with mainland China. All economies are seeking better economic relations with the mainland.”
On the issue of the ECFA jeopardizing Taiwan’s sovereignty, Hsu said there have been no instances of this occurring during negotiations and he would not expect this to happen in the future. “The ECFA will not force Taipei to be subservient to Beijing.”
ROC government officials participating in the conference included GIO Minister Johnny Chi-chen Chiang, GIO Deputy Minister Alice Wang and Tony Ong, director of the Press Division under the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in New York. (JSM)
Write to Chiayi Ho at chiayi@mail.gio.gov.tw