Fubang Cultural and Educational Foundation Executive Director Chen Ai-ling established the Alliance for Mothers to Oversee the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant, calling for 100,000 mothers to join her in demanding immediate cessation of work on the plant. New Taipei City Mayor Eric Liluan Chu, in whose constituency the plant is located, said that unless the city government is satisfied the facility is safe, there is no way it will allow the plant to begin operating.
In response, Economics Minister Shih Yen-shiang said that if other energy sources were used in place of nuclear power, electricity prices would rise 40 percent. The fourth facility, officially the Lungmen nuclear plant, in Gongliao District, could have fuel rods installed in 2014 to begin trial operations, and come on line in 2015 at the earliest. However, given ever increasing public doubts about the safety of the plant, a nuclear storm of protest could arise if the central government continues to ignore the strength of opposition to it.
Following the 2011 radiation crisis at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear power plant, and a peaking of anti-nuclear sentiment in Taiwan, the Democratic Progressive Party demanded the establishment of a nuclear-free homeland. The government of President Ma Ying-jeou confirmed that the three existing nuclear power plants would be decommissioned on schedule and that measures had been taken to compensate for any power deficit caused by the absence of the fourth plant.
However, domestic opposition to nuclear power was in no way lessened, and adding to the controversy were Taipower’s loose management, ongoing construction problems at the plant and questions about the safety features.
Amid the high tide of public anti-nuclear sentiment, Chu and Taipei City Mayor Hau Lung-bin publicly announced in quick succession that without ensuring proper safety, there would be no fourth nuclear power plant. It is clear that getting rid of unsafe nuclear power is pretty much public consensus.
Taiwan is in a heavily active earthquake zone and has a higher population density than Japan. Given the shocking experience of the Fukushima disaster, a new track for the domestic nuclear power program was inevitable. However, establishment of a nuclear-free homeland is not something that can be achieved overnight. Energy source substitution and capital costs have to be considered—only after a rational review of the situation can the best solution be found.
From the perspective of power supply technology and capital costs, nuclear power at present provides a base load for 24 hours a day, with an annual output of 40 billion kilowatt hours, or about 20 percent of total production.
Between 2018 and 2024, the Chinshan and Kuosheng plants in Wanli and Shimen districts of New Taipei City, respectively, and the Maanshan plant in Hengchun Township, Pingtung County, are due to be decommissioned one after the other, so if the fourth nuclear plant does not come on stream to replace them, other sources will have to be found to make up for it.
However, Taiwan’s per capita carbon emissions are already double the global average, so there is a limit to the extent fossil fuels can be used. But other energy sources are also subject to technological and capital limitations.
For example, there is no room for expanding wind and hydroelectric power, whereas the capital costs for natural gas are at least NT$4 (US$0.13) per kilowatt hour, and for solar power are NT$7-8 per kwh, or more than four times as expensive as nuclear power—not to mention the environmental problems associated with the construction of additional storage facilities. Finding substitute energy sources is no easy task, so unless capital costs are completely ignored or there is a significant reduction in power consumption, a nuclear-free nation is an impossible task.
Following the Fukushima disaster, Japan’s Democratic Party government, under pressure from a nuclear-phobic public, adopted a zero nuclear policy. However, after the re-election of the Liberal Democratic Party, new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced the use of a best mix electricity policy and the abandonment of the zero nuclear goal. Ultimately, economic considerations were more in line with public demand than a zero nuclear policy at any cost.
Taiwan can learn from Japan’s example, which shows that implementing thorough safety requirements is more important at present than abstract talk of becoming nuclear free.
The crux of the problem is that the total construction budget for the fourth nuclear plant looks set to exceed US$30 billion: If it is not put into operation, it will be very hard to tolerate a loss of this magnitude. Thus the government has already made clear it intends to finish construction and bring the plant on line, and will do all in its power to defend such budget provisions.
However, Taipower’s continuous mishaps and uncertainty over the construction progress has made all concerned worry about the plant’s safety. The Atomic Energy Council’s Fourth Nuclear Power Plant Safety Oversight Committee argues nonstop, severely damaging public confidence, leaving it with no will and no way to endorse the plant as safe.
Given the government’s present circumstances and the erosion of public trust, even if the construction were now to be completed smoothly, opposition from all sectors would make it very hard to then bring the plant on line.
The formation of the Alliance for Mothers to Oversee the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant is a powerful demonstration of the public’s lack of faith in the government. The government must tackle this crisis of confidence head-on and not allow resolution of the plant’s safety problems to drift.
The Executive Yuan should immediately appoint a minister-without-portfolio to oversee the nuclear safety issue, and set up a further independent, cross-party specialist body—that would be trusted by the public—to find a comprehensive solution to all the safety issues that have been raised by the various sectors. This body should produce a report by a fixed deadline and come up with a final decision for which it would be held responsible and which would set the public’s mind at rest.
Further, the Ministry of Economic Affairs should not be using the prospect of a huge jump in electricity prices as its justification for continuing work on the fourth nuclear plant. Rather, it should formulate a contingency plan for the eventuality that the plant is never brought on line. Given that the safety of nuclear power overrides all other considerations, there can be nothing left to chance. (SDH)
(This commentary originally appeared in the Economic Daily News Jan. 14, 2013.)
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