Taiwan voters went to the polls on December 1 to elect new representatives to the Legislative Yuan as well as chief executives in twenty-three cities and counties. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party fared much better than expected in the legislative races but lost ground to the opposition Kuomintang in the contests for heads of local governments.
The Fifth Legislative Yuan convening this month marks a historical departure. For the first time since the central government moved to Taiwan in 1949, a majority of the seats in the legislature are not controlled by the Kuomintang (KMT) or Nationalist Party. In fact, while no political party gained a majority in the lawmaking body in the December elections, President Chen Shui-bian's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) surprised many observers by electing the largest single delegation--eighty-seven legislators, a substantial increase from the seventy seats taken by the DPP in 1998.
The KMT's base in the legislature dropped to sixty-eight seats from the 123 elected three years ago. Since that time, the party had been weakened by the defection--following its loss in the 2000 presidential election--of many supporters who shifted to the new People First Party (PFP) established by former Taiwan Governor James Soong. In the new legislature the PFP will be the third largest party, holding forty-six seats, while an even newer party, the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) formed in August 2001 with backing from former President Lee Teng-hui, took thirteen seats. The New Party, created when a group led by second-generation "mainlanders" split from the KMT in 1993, found itself virtually eliminated as a political force at the national level, obtaining only one seat.
A total of 456 candidates competed for the 176 directly elected seats (including eight reserved for aborigines) in the 225-member Legislative Yuan. The remainder were chosen from party lists for national and overseas Chinese delegates, apportioned according to the parties' share of the vote--provided that a party polled at least 5 percent of the total ballots. In the parliamentary elections, the breakdown by share of the vote was 33.38 percent for the DPP, 28.56 percent for the KMT, 18.57 percent for the PFP, 7.76 percent for the TSU, 2.61 percent for the New Party, and the remaining 9.12 percent for independent candidates. With more than 10.4 million of the 15.8 million voting-age citizens participating, the voter turnout came to 66.16 percent, the lowest ever in a national election.
One factor contributing to the lower-than-usual turnout may have been a decrease in the incidence of vote-buying, a practice formerly widespread in many rural districts. This time Justice Minister Chen Ding-nan vowed to bring the purchase of votes with money or gifts under control. Law enforcement agents maintained vigilance in every district, violators were quickly indicted, and financial institutions were monitored to block suspicious transfers of funds to vote "brokers." Most political commentators deemed the efforts a success, making for the cleanest elections in Taiwan's history.
The KMT had hoped to turn the vote into a referendum on the performance of the Chen Shui-bian government during its year and a half in power, capitalizing on public dissatisfaction with the state of the economy, including the record high unemployment rate. Much of the electorate, however, appears to have accepted the DPP's arguments that the economic problems largely reflect the impact of the global downturn, as well as the legacy of policies pursued by the previous administration.
By increasing the size of the DPP delegation so as to solidify support in the parliament for the Chen government, the voters seemed to be seeking a more stable relationship between the executive and legislative branches. Since President Chen's inauguration in May 2000, that relationship had been one of constant discord and stalemate--exacerbated by the DPP's inexperience as a ruling party and the KMT's discomfort in opposition. The low point was a KMT drive to recall the president, just months after his election, when the DPP government sought to cancel a nuclear power plant project already well into construction.
For months before the December 1 elections, it was considered likely that President Chen would be under heavy pressure after the vote to seek a coalition with another party in order to achieve a working legislative majority. Establishment of the TSU was engineered by Lee Teng-hui precisely to provide additional allies to bolster the DPP's position in the Legislative Yuan. In addition, President Chen had announced his intention to forge a National Stabilization Alliance, attracting individual lawmakers from various parties as members, to broaden his government's base of support. And former President Lee launched a "do tank" (like a think tank, except it would have an action plan) called Taiwan Advocates, also aimed at bringing together like-minded politicians across party lines.
But the outcome of the vote, giving the DPP and the TSU a combined total of 100 seats, just thirteen short of a bare parliamentary majority, changed the political landscape. The Chen administration began making overtures to independent legislators and sympathetic lawmakers belonging to other parties, with the objective of putting together an alliance that could rely on at least 120 votes when major bills come up for consideration. As this issue went to press, that maneuvering was still in progress.
As with most Taiwan elections, the recent races depended more on personalities, local factions, and perceptions of national identity than on clear-cut issues. All the major parties supported economic revitalization, election reform, and a relatively moderate approach toward mainland China. Livening the competition was the role of some of Taiwan's major political figures--often referred to as "heavyweights" in the Taiwan media--in campaigning vigorously for their candidates around the island. The results of the vote enhanced the prestige of Chen Shui-bian, who stumped for the DPP, James Soong for the PFP, and Lee Teng-hui for the newborn TSU. Lee castigated his onetime protegee, KMT Chairman Lien Chan, for abandoning Lee's "Taiwan First" platform and becoming too accommodating toward China. Lien, the losing KMT candidate in the 2000 election behind both Chen and Soong, suffered another blow by failing to lead his party to victory in the balloting for legislators.
Among the 225 lawmakers, seventy-five are women and fewer than half have ever previously served in the legislature. Of the 142 incumbent district representatives who sought re-election, only ninety-two succeeded.
If the voters leaned toward the DPP in the elections for Legislative Yuan, many engaged in ticket splitting to throw their support elsewhere in the races for the twenty-three city and county executive offices at stake. Going into this election the DPP controlled twelve of those offices, and the party expected to at least maintain that level. But the balloting ended with both the KMT and the DPP in charge of nine counties or cities. (Taipei and Kaohsiung, with the status of "special municipalities," were not included in this election.) The PFP elected two of its candidates, the New Party one, and two independent incumbents were re-elected.
In one of the most widely watched contests, the KMT candidate, former Foreign Minister Jason Hu, won the race for mayor in Taichung, Taiwan's third largest city. The DPP vote was split between the formal nominee and the incumbent mayor running as an independent, while the PFP refrained from putting up opposition to Hu. In another hotly contested district, Taipei County, DPP incumbent Executive Su Tseng-chang won a second term even though the KMT, the PFP, and the New Party agreed to support a single candidate in what was termed a "pan-blue" alliance (in contrast to the "pan-green" of the DPP and the TSU). Similar KMT-PFP cooperation in Taoyuan County was successful in winning back the magistrate's office from the DPP.
The election outcome again demonstrated the "blue north, green south" partisan division that was first evident in the 2000 presidential election. Except for Taipei County, the local governments in northern Taiwan are controlled by the KMT or allies (the Miaoli County executive-elect, an independent, is a former KMT member). Southern Taiwan flies the green flag, while the three eastern counties are split among three parties .
Excluding the KMT-controlled city hall in Taipei and the DPP rule in Kaohsiung, 52.29 percent of the Taiwan population now live in localities with DPP administrations and 42.49 percent with KMT governments. The affiliation of the mayor or county executive can be an important factor in mobilizing local resources for the next presidential election, to be held in 2004.
For both the legislative and local office contests, the election atmosphere this time appeared less intense than in the past. Due to the economic recession, candidates received smaller campaign contributions and therefore had less money to spend on the banners, sound trucks, and other forms of publicity that have typified Taiwan elections. Stricter regulations were also in force on the placement of campaign posters on public property and party flags on taxicabs.