Taiwan's political parties have made different contributions
to the well-being of people on the island, but not without
controversy. Today, to win the public's heart in a highly
competitive environment, parties are sensing the need to
change--and even to amend positions on national identity.
The Kuomintang (KMT), Taiwan's ruling party, retrieved its confidence in the 1998 year-end elections, the island's last before the end of the century. It not only achieved an eleven-seat majority in the legislative election, but won back Taipei's mayorship from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the largest opposition party on the island. For the time being, at least, it seems that the KMT will continue to play a role that decides the fate of Taiwan's near future.
Looking back at Taiwan's political development, the KMT is undoubtedly the party that has had the biggest influence. The party whose earliest predecessor, the Hsingchung Hui (Society for Regenerating China), founded by Sun Yat-sen in Honolulu in 1894, not only created the Republic of China after overthrowing the Ching Dynasty (1644-1911), but later led China to victory over Japan in World War Two. Thus, Taiwan's official name has been "the Republic of China" since the KMT, led by Chiang Kai-shek, took control of the island at the end of the Japanese colonial period in 1945. To date, the KMT has ruled Taiwan at the central-government level for over half a century.
Taiwan's post-Japanese colonial development is very much related to the KMT, since no new political parties were allowed to exist after martial law was announced in 1949. That was the same year the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) occupied mainland China and the ROC government relocated to the island. Authoritarian rule meant to ensure a stable political environment and national security, and was perhaps inevitable because the CCP posed a very real threat to the KMT at the time. Authoritarianism also helped promote modernization of the island, according to Ger Yeong-kuang in his book The History of Taiwan: Politics. "This is in fact very common in developing countries," argues Ger, a professor of political science at National Taiwan University.
But authoritarian rule had to be temporary if Taiwan wanted to march into its next stage. In fact, political transformation was inevitable once the island's booming economy started to promote political participation, observes Ke Sun-jyi, a national assemblyman of the KMT. "With the accumulation of wealth, people naturally would ask for more, that is, a bigger share of the political resources, so opposition forces emerged." As the 1969 supplementary elections of additional members to the Legislative Yuan were held because of population increases in areas not controlled by the CCP, Taiwan's politics at the central-government level began to change. Like the senior members, however, these newly elected legislators had the privi lege of serving indefinite terms. In December 1972, seven months after the appointment of Chiang Kai-shek's son Chiang Ching-kuo as premier, the supplementary legislative elections took another major turn and new members were elected every three years. Taiwan's opposition forces thus grew in the Legislature; Huang Hsin-chieh and Kang Ning-hsiang, generally regarded as harbingers of the DPP, were two prominent figures in this early stage of Taiwan's democratic development.
The senior members had been elected in mainland China in 1948 for the First Legislative Yuan and, under special constitutional provisions, did not have to face re-election after their term was over in May 1951. As a result, these legislators served for more than forty years before retirement and total replacement by elected officials from around the island in 1992.
Ke feels Chiang Ching-kuo, who became the president of the ROC in 1978, played a major role in pushing for localiza tion and democratization of Taiwan's politics. Chiang Ching-kuo was the first political leader on the island who tried to bring more Taiwan natives into the KMT and local bureaucracies through appointments as well as elections. Lee Wang-tai, deputy secretary-general of the DPP, also thinks Chiang Ching-kuo contributed to Taiwan's political evolution. "Chiang Ching-kuo was quite a pragmatist. In the late period of his presidency, he became more capable of self-examination. He knew Taiwan's society had changed, and that it was impossible for government policy to stay unchanged. He knew that only by taking root on the island could the KMT remain powerful," says Lee.
Chiang Ching-kuo not only made the KMT competitive in the face of a more open political climate, but helped create an environment favorable to the development of party politics. Of course, he is not the only one responsible for Taiwan's fledg ling democracy. "To be frank, without the DPP, Taiwan's democracy wouldn't have developed at such a fast pace," notes Ke. "In early times, the tangwai [meaning political activists outside the KMT], or the forerunner of the DPP, laid stress on subjects like political persecution, human rights protection and the termination of martial law in every election campaign. By doing so, they drew much attention from the public."
Two events further stimulated the growth of the opposition. First, in 1977's "Chungli Incident," rumors of a county magistrate election rigged by the KMT to defeat the tangwai sparked severe protests from backers of the opposition. Two years later, the "Kaohsiung Incident," a conflict between police and dissident supporters, ended in violence and bloodshed. As Ke observes, after these two incidents (especially the latter), opposition forces garnered more and more votes in elections. In 1986, the island saw the establishment of the DPP, followed by the lifting of martial law the next year. Thus, a real threat to the KMT had officially formed.
The emergence of the DPP reflected many people's doubts about the authoritarian rule of the KMT-led government. This included its policies on subjects like culture and education, which Lee thinks discriminated against Taiwanese culture. The rise of the opposition also indicated a brighter future for social reformists, according to DPP Legislator Alice Hsueh-fung Wang. "Social issues such as environmental protection and the rights of laborers and women draw attention from the public usually after political reforms take off," Wang notes.
It seemed that the DPP, as a challenger to the establishment, had found a niche: it could attract people outside the establishment by campaigning for social reforms, especially localization. This may have been true when Chiang Ching-kuo was in office; yet although Chiang is credited with first leading Taiwan to democracy, his successor Lee Teng-hui is a differ ent case. Lee was the first Taiwan native to hold the highest office on the island, and he has forcefully promoted a localized KMT.
"If Lee had not been chosen as Chiang's successor at the time, the DPP could have overthrown the KMT government through elections," the DPP's Lee believes. Currently, the DPP can pick up (at best) only about thirty-three percent of the vote during central-government elections. This percentage has risen as high as forty-three percent in local-level elections.
It may be that the DPP's Lee is only partially right, however, considering that many on the island have reservations about the party's promotion of Taiwan independence. For Wu Yu-shan, a professor of political science at National Taiwan Univer sity, this is the biggest obstacle for the DPP in entering the central government. "Most ruling parties in former autocracies have already declined [as the country moves to multiparty politics]. But this was not the case with the KMT for two reasons. For one thing, Taiwan achieved economic prosperity under the KMT's leadership. For another, the change in national identity the opposition party has been striving for is too radical for the general public," argues Wu.
The KMT is not without controversy, either. Both Wang and Lee of the DPP note that the ruling party is still deeply involved in "black and gold" (underworld and money) politics. Lee cites the 1998 year-end legislative election, saying that some candidates implicated in organized crime and money politics were still nominated by the KMT, and then elected. Hau Lung-bin, a lawmaker of the New Party (NP), another opposition force on the island, has similar comments on the KMT. "The KMT's local factions were linked to black and gold politics before Lee Teng-hui became the president, but this phenom enon has become more obvious since he took office and turned a blind eye to it," observes Hau. He believes that this partly explains why some former KMT elite broke away from the KMT and founded the NP in 1993. The ruling party thereupon suffered a major setback.
The NP's major concern was with President Lee's actions, which it interprets as pro-independence. "From our observa tion, the Lee-led KMT and the DPP have become closer and closer in seeking Taiwan independence, which is more obvious with the process of amending the Constitution and downsizing the Taiwan Provincial Government," Hau says. Thus, formed and led by ex-KMT political stars, the NP grew through elections by forcefully campaigning against independence, as well as for social stability and clean politics. In the 1995 election for the Third Legislative Yuan, the party reached an apex, picking up a total of twenty-one (up from seven) out of 164 seats.
Every political party experiences ups and downs, and the once-thriving NP is no exception. For Ke, the NP's future is gloomy, partly because of its shaky foundation. That is, as anti-Lee sentiment dissipates when he steps down, the NP will not be able to explain its existence.
Hau thinks otherwise, and argues that the NP is necessary because the party has a pure image and can stimulate the KMT to further reforms. "For example, the KMT nominates candidates with good images for legislative elections only in Taipei City because the NP is quite competitive in this area," he says.
The NP's decline has seemed to come too soon, and apparently has nothing to do with the president: just a few years after the party's founding, severe infighting broke out and dampened the enthusiasm of its backers. Hau sees the internal trouble as the result of a lack of communication between the competent (and therefore uncompromising) party elite, while Ke of the KMT thinks it was a struggle for power and self-interest. Both believe this is the major reason for the NP's rout in the 1998 elections--notably the one for the Legislature, in which the NP grabbed only seven percent of the vote and eleven seats, even though the total number of available seats had been increased from 164 to 225.
After its major setback in the December 1998 elections, the NP might want to change its development strategy. As Hau notes, it must become serious about a sound mechanism to cope with internal troubles in a democratic way. The NP must also show its influence by checking and balancing the other parties in, for example, the fifty-two strong Taipei City Council, where the nine-member NP caucus can play such a role. "Some thought the NP could further expand after earning twenty-one seats in the Legislature, but now we will basically focus on our traditional supporters, that is, urbanites and middle-class voters. We will not join elections where only one post is elected in the near future, such as the 2000 presidential elections," Hau states. "I think it would be hard for the NP to have a candidate run for the presidency, not to mention be given a chance to win."
It is obvious that the coming election at the turn of the century will be a competition between the KMT and the DPP. It will be a tough one for both of them, since they currently have their own problems to solve. On the other hand, judging from the outcome of the 1998 year-end elections, it seems that the ruling party has a better chance to win with its "middle-of-the -road" image, as opposed to the DPP's, with its promotion of independence.
Having undergone changes, however, the DPP will not necessarily lose next time. First, the DPP's image has gradually changed from one of a political party taking to the streets and resorting to violence, to one that is capable of reasoning. Lee Wang-tai attributes this change to the attitude of the media toward opposition forces. "The media treated us as an enemy in the early days when the DPP took drastic actions to protest against the government, but today we have better interaction with them and often appear on call-in TV programs to convey our ideas. This helps create a better impression on the public."
The DPP has also progressed in its ability to govern, according to Alice Wang. "We have virtually become the party in power in many local governments, and this makes us more mature and responsible in making public policies. The DPP is therefore preparing for the central-level governing of the island," Wang says. At present, the DPP is the ruling party in twelve out of twenty-three local governments, which was decided in the last elections for city mayors and county magistrates in 1997.
Wang believes that a mature DPP will be able to handle cross-strait ties, and clear public doubts about its position on the issue of Taiwan's national identity. That is, "it will not authoritatively declare Taiwan independence and change the official name of Taiwan after coming into power, just like the KMT can't authoritatively declare unification with mainland China. The sovereignty should be shared by all of Taiwan's people." The DPP lawmaker has another reason for not declaring Taiwan independence, one that is heard time and again from many DPP members: "Taiwan is already a de facto independent country." She goes on to assert that "Taiwan is legally independent too, considering that the islanders can already choose their leader through direct presidential elections."
However, not all people feel comfortable with this version of the DPP's Taiwan independence platform. The Taiwan Independence Party urges a formal declaration of independence with a formal change in Taiwan's official name, and has thereby enticed certain elements from the DPP. On the other hand, given the fact that the DPP suffered a defeat in the 1998 elections, its pursuit of Taiwan independence remains a major obstacle to its development despite the toning down of its ultimate goal.
Wu Tung-yeh, a political scientist at National Chengchi University, says that, while the goal of independence can help command support, "many vote for the DPP because they hope for a two-party system on the island." Will these people still back the DPP in high-level elections? One might find the answer by looking at the result of the 1996 presidential election: the DPP, as the only party promoting independence in a four-way election, got only twenty-one percent of the vote, much lower than the forty-three percent in the 1997 elections for local government leaders.
The DPP is at a crossroads as the March 2000 election approaches. The month after the December 1998 elections, four leading DPP politicians took part in a debate on whether the party should amend its independence platform.
Chen Shui-bian, the DPP's most popular figure and its anticipated candidate for the coming presidential election, would not be able to evade the national identity issue while running for the highest office in Taiwan. The former mayor of Taipei who lost his 1998 re-election bid may stress the need for a referendum through which the islanders can directly decide their fate, rather than on his personal preference for formal independence. "Still, it will be a tough fight for the DPP, unless it can replace the national identity debate with a personality debate. You know, Chen has very strong charisma," observes Wu Yu-shan.
The KMT currently has the upper hand in terms of its position on national identity, though Wang thinks the ruling party is moving substantively toward Taiwan independence. The ruling party's emphasis on Taiwan's authority, its maintenance of the status quo, and its ideal of uniting with a democratic mainland China in the future apparently combine to attract a larger audience than that of the DPP. After all, the DPP's promotion of its ultimate goal, however low-key, is still not acceptable to the majority of residents of contemporary Taiwan, where a status-quo-minded middle class is becoming a major force.
Despite criticisms of the ruling party's "black and gold" politics, Taiwan came through the recent financial crisis rela tively well. The morale of the island's oldest political party was further boosted when it won the legislative elections and wrested the mayorship of the capital from the DPP at the end of 1998. It seems natural that most political observers think the KMT will have an election victory in 2000--provided that the party does not divide.
One of the crucial figures in the KMT is the former governor of Taiwan Province, James Soong. This KMT heavyweight grabbed fifty-six percent of the vote around the island (excluding Taipei City and Kaohsiung City) and Penghu County during the 1994 election for Taiwan Province's first and last elected governor. This was higher than the fifty-four percent captured islandwide and in offshore islands by Lee Teng-hui and Lien Chan on the KMT ticket during the presidential election of 1996. Furthermore, mainland-born Soong received a polled approval rating of around eighty percent during his more than five-year service as governor. Many say that his popularity indicates the breakdown of the ethnicity myth and that the KMT will win if he runs in the 2000 presidential election. "Chen Shui-bian will have absolutely no chance of winning if Soong is his main opponent," says Wu Tung-yeh of National Chengchi University.
Incumbent Vice President Lien Chan, however, is very likely to be nominated by the KMT as the presidential candidate. Accordingly, if Soong insists on running for the office of president, Taiwan would see a three-way election, or a competition between a divided KMT and a unified DPP likely to be represented by Chen Shui-bian. In such a situation, no one can guarantee the KMT's victory, since Chen is seen as a stronger rival than was the DPP's former presidential candidate Peng Ming-min in the 1996 election.
KMT supporters therefore are hoping for a happy ending--that is, Lien and Soong pair up as presidential and vice presidential candidates in order to ensure a strong KMT. Divided or united? The situation will become clear after the party's presidential candidate is decided during the KMT's 15th National Congress in August.
Ke emphasizes that Taiwan's political scene is far from clear in the light of long-term developments. "People only care about the 2000 presidential election. But what about the 2004 or 2008 elections? A KMT victory in 2000 wouldn't mean it would never have another worry. If the KMT is slow in self-examination and unable to reform itself, the DPP would win the next election, in 2004," says Ke, adding that a political party may lack the ability to examine itself exactly because of an election victory. Indeed, as the DPP is trying to ease independence fears, competition between political parties here will likely be fiercer in the next century than it is today. But such competition is good for Taiwan's political parties, which must improve and make better and safer policies to seek more votes. It is also good for the people on the island, whose voices can surely be heard clearly with the emergence of a healthier political environment.