Prior to his arrival in his current position on January 8, 1987, Dean had been Chairman of the Board of Trustees and Managing Director of AIT in Washington, D.C. since 1979. He was formerly a foreign service officer with the Department of State and has worked in the China field since 1957 when he was assigned to the U.S.
Foreign Service Language School in Taichung. Because of his long-term interest and experience with development issues in Taiwan, Dean's remarks—provide special insights into the potential directions these rapid transformations may take in the near future.
Today I am going to ask you all to think of the future, rather than the present or the past; to look ahead fifteen years.
The world in 2002 will be very different from the world today. There will be more people. For every two persons on earth in 1972 there will be three in 2002. Four-fifths of the world's population will live in the less developed countries. By every measure of material welfare—per capita GNP, and consumption of food, energy, and minerals—the gap between the richer and the poorer will have almost doubled. Per capita water supplies will decline by about 35 percent because of the greater population. Forty percent of the forests still remaining in lesser developed nations will be razed.
Prices will be higher; to meet projected worldwide demand a 100 percent increase in the real price of food will be required. Energy prices will increase by over one and one-half times. In many places the world will be worse off as a result of lost opportunities in environmental protection, conservation, population control, and agriculture.
The famous turn-of-the-century philosopher Kang You-wei once wrote:
"I imagined what it would be like five hundred or a thousand years hence, what kind of future world it would be, what changes would have taken place in the soul of man, in human anatomy, in communications with the moon and the stars. I speculated on climates, objects, beings, governments and culture, rites, music and literature, dwellings, and food that might exist on other stars and in other worlds, and wondered whether distant universes would follow their natural courses or deviate, and whether they would live or die. My thoughts wandered far into the mystery and infinity of space and time."
Kang You-wei projected 500 to 1000 years ahead. This evening I invite you to join me in a night of fancy, stretching over a much shorter time/distance of only 15 years. Let us imagine being together in a hot air balloon, gliding over the city of Taipei in the year 2002. What changes can we expect to see then?
Some of my friends jokingly predict we won't be able to see anything at all because of the thicker air pollution! But I think the skies will be clear and blue, that the effective action taken over 15 years will have cleared up air and water pollution in Taipei, as well as Taichung and Kaohsiung.
Increased government support for a reinvigorated Environmental Protection Commission headed by young, vigorous, and capable officials will have implemented the following measures. By 2002 all cars and trucks will use unleaded gasoline and catalytic converters on their exhausts. All factories will use air scrubbers or other means to stop air pollution. Low interest loans and grants to factories will cut water pollution as will new and improved sewerage and garbage treatment facilities.
Looking down through the clear air on Taipei we will see people swimming and bathing in the Tamsui River. The clean air here will be in marked contrast to the projection for Mexico City, where in the year 2002, with a population of 35 million, even healthy individuals must stay indoors and avoid strenuous exercise two days out of every three.
Unlike other places, Taipei will have plenty of water. The Feitsui Reservoir opened in 1987 has been supplemented by a new reservoir. Tai Power has built two more nuclear plants, and power consumption for both homes and factories has doubled.
Looking down over Taipei, we will see considerably more traffic on the roads. But, because of vigorous road construction projects, new bridges, and the new subway which began full scale operation in the previous year, 2001, and the railroad through Taipei which was put underground a few years earlier, the traffic does move although there are still traffic jams in key areas.
The city government has experimented with the concept of closing off parts of the busiest shopping streets on weekends to all vehicles except taxis and buses. There are fewer motorcycles in use. Most motorcycle riders have traded up to automobiles. But car licenses in the city, and parking, are expensive even though several new parking garages have been built. More people use public transportation because it is faster, cheaper, and more convenient.
Looking closer from the balloon one can see that the city's new buildings are attractively designed. The complex around the Taipei World Trade Center and City Hall is especially eye catching. The Hsimenting area has been completely rebuilt with new hotels, apartment and office buildings. New apartment and office buildings have replaced almost all the old single family houses in Taipei city. The shops, the clothes, the lifestyle of everyone reflects a huge jump in the standard of living. There are flocks of tourists pouring in and out of first class department stores. The city is more crowded than ever before but it is cleaner, more attractive, more prosperous, and the traffic although dense is orderly.
For the public, a major campaign in the middle schools and colleges to raise the level of sports competition has produced an impressive array of world class golfers, soccer, and tennis players, volleyball and baseball teams that consistently win international competitions.
As we glide over the golf courses we see them crowded with players. Arnold Palmer's new course is particularly difficult and is the site of the annual Taipei international match attracting professional golfers from every country.
The World Wildlife Federation has just presented its most coveted award to Taiwan's National Park Department for its remarkable management of the large national parks in the mountain areas which have been opened to the public. This has only been possible because of the increasingly large budget which the Legislative Yuan and the Taiwan Provincial Assembly have approved for the National Park Department and also for the Tourism Bureau. Since the workweek has been reduced to five days, more people have an opportunity to visit these parks over the weekends. The modern facilities at the parks, the careful conservation of the wildlife and the trees and flowers bring more visitors from abroad to see these beautiful mountain parks.
The Tourism Bureau has instituted an attractive and successful international advertising campaign to promote tourism. Service in hotels outside of Taipei has reached international standards. The Palace Museum has added two new wings and its reputation as a center of Chinese culture has been even further enhanced by several exhibitions of its treasures in museums abroad.
In the United States, the Chinese Foundation has been established to promote the study of classical Chinese history, literature, philosophy, art, and architecture. It has become a leading source of grants for scholars and teachers of Chinese culture in American colleges and universities. One result has been the increased flow of American students and scholars to study in National Taiwan University and other universities here.
Looking down from the balloon one can clearly see the huge Veteran's General Hospital which opened its new building in 1990. It and the National Taiwan University's College of Medicine have become centers of medical research for all of Asia. Using huge government research grants these hospitals have employed hundreds of young doctors to study and to improve on developments in the field of medicine. Doctors from many lands meet here to learn more about the successful combination of herbal and western medical techniques, especially for cancer prevention. But the hospitals have also specialized in artificial finger, knee, shoulder, foot joints, and artificial limbs.
There has been an increased use of robots. Robots rather than people now work at McDonalds and other fast food restaurants. The Science-based Industrial Park in Hsinchu has become a center for adopting certain computer software developments to practical use for robots in industry. New computers built in Taipei factories can take dictation. You talk and they type. New machines accept pages of a Chinese book and translate them into English in minutes. There is even a machine that tests one's IQ by asking a variety of difficult questions.
The Science-based Industrial Park, the National Science Council, and several new private R&D institutes have helped develop a practical application of superconductors to miniaturize electric motors. Many factories here will produce these new small energy efficient motors for the air-conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, and other appliances which will become a major industry in Taiwan with sales to Asia and other areas exceeding even the wildest projections.
There have been many practical advances in biotechnology, especially in the development of specialty fruits and flowers which find a ready worldwide market. Several air shipments leave daily for Japan, Europe, and the U.S.
Looking down again from the balloon one can see the Chiang Kai-shek Memorial with its impressive National Theater and Music Hall. The programs both international and domestic in these theaters have had the same effect on Taipei as the JFK Center for the Performing Arts has had on Washington. It has lifted the cultural awareness of both cities and made them world famous centers of music and drama.
A new symphony orchestra has become well established in the Music Theater. Because of vigorous support by both public and private cultural organizations, artists from Taiwan have gained world renown by having exhibits in many cities abroad. Cultural centers here have become exciting and interesting focal points for all the arts, and public use and appreciation of these active centers has risen to a high level.
It is clear in the year 2002 that the central concern of the authorities to achieve a better life for Taiwan's people has been successful. Per capital GNP has increased to US$11,000. This is similar to Italy, Canada, and the U.K.
The shape of Taiwan's economy in 2002 is different. Production has become more technology and capital intensive. The service sector has become predominant, and the domestic economy is beginning to outweigh the export sector. The manufacturing sector's relative importance in the economy has declined as services grew to absorb the three million people who entered the labor force in the 15-year period. Because all tariff and nontariff barriers had been removed by 2002, the availability of imported goods has contributed to a marked improvement in living standards. Taipei's stores rival those of Tokyo, New York, or London.
The removal of foreign exchange restrictions and the granting of national treatment to foreign banks also had a positive impact. Taiwan has become an international center for banking, insurance, and shipping. In addition to domestic manufactures, foreign companies from the U.S. and Europe have established warehouses and distribution centers in this free trade island. More investment from Japan, the U.S. and Europe has flowed in for capital construction and also for investment in government and private bonds and in the stock market. The lifting of foreign exchange restrictions in 1987 has caused this remarkable growth in foreign investment.
The authorities have been successful in maintaining a high savings rate and in finding ways to channel the massive foreign exchange reserves that existed in 1987 and domestic savings into productive investments. They did this by strengthening the domestic capital markets and encouraging domestic firms to participate in the market. A bond market was also established as were other means for financing capital construction, both private and public. Investment banking was also encouraged. Foreign banks became more active when they were given national treatment. The 14 large infrastructure projects initiated in 1987, have all been completed. Now ten new projects are underway. Public sector firms have increased the rate of their investment as have those in the private sector.
One major change as one looks over Taipei is the growth of large conglomerates. Many small and medium sized firms have merged into large companies producing a wide range of products for both the domestic and the foreign markets. This major change in the shape of Taiwan's companies has had some disadvantages in that many individuals no longer run their own companies but work for a large corporation.
But labor intensive industries have given way to well managed firms with good accounting systems, with strong R&D departments, and vigorous marketing sections which produce high tech products with an economy of scale. Taiwan has become a strong worldwide competitor in manufactured products. Some of these products were developed here. Others were taken over from industrial production in places like the U.S. which were in decline and no longer economical.
Taiwan, unlike Japan, the U.S., and Germany, has the advantage of a generally young, and exceptionally well educated population. Sixty percent of the people were under thirty in 1987. All of these arc highly literate, with a large majority having gone on to higher levels of schooling. In 2002, Taiwan has one of the most educated populations in the world. And, like educated young people everywhere, these people have quickly adapted to new technological advances. Much of Taiwan's economy in the year 2002 is involved in the production, application, and improvement of these new technologies.
Taiwan's educational system has produced an impressive number of scientists, engineers, managers, and other professionals required for future development. As the past 15 years have demonstrated, the best way to use this talent is to move these younger people to positions of responsibility. One of Japan's strongest assets is the movement of its brightest university graduates into government. After several years of public service private industry then hires these capable managers. This permits a constant stream of university graduates to move up in government and then get good jobs in private companies.
By 2002 many graduate students who have studied abroad will have been attracted home by good employment and other opportunities in this society. Fewer graduate students will wish to study abroad, because universities here will have equal or better departments in their field of specialization. The universities including the prestigious National Sun Yat-sen University, like the hospitals, will have become internationally recognized centers of research and learning. In the general area of higher education, Taiwan in the year 2002 will have one of the highest ratios of college graduates in the world.
Of course all is not roses in the year 2002. Population will have increased from 19.5 million in 1987 to 23.5 million. Taiwan will be one of the most densely populated places in the world in terms of habitable area. Its urbanized area has almost doubled in 15 years. The tourists will be arriving in ever increasing numbers. If you think you have trouble now you won't be able to find a parking place then either. Social pressures brought about by rapid change will be greater.
Not only is there instantaneous communication around the world, but the world has become so small that people pay money to take vacations in places where formerly you only went if you were drafted or shipwrecked.
Also by the year 2002 golfers may no longer have peace and quiet during their golf games. Imagine for a moment just as you are gelling ready to hit a crucial iron shot to the green, your robot caddy scoots over and in machine speech tells you there is an emergency call from your office.
Prices will be higher then, especially real estate, and taxes will be higher too. The city will be more crowded. Greater Taipei stretches from Keelung to Taichung. But the standard of living here will be equal or better than that in the most developed countries.
In conclusion, you can see that I am very positive about the future here. Like many of you I have witnessed the economic, social and political changes since 1947. Think back to 1972. Would you have imagined then the type of economic and political progress we now see? Over the past 15 years the pace of development has been very rapid. It is reasonable to assume that progress in the next 15 years will be even faster. My speech today may seem somewhat idealized but it is made on the assumption that certain hard, costly decisions on environment, on city planning, on economic reform, and on research and development will be made in the years ahead. If we were to meet here again in July 2002, I think we would all be impressed and surprised by these changes.
I will leave you with a proverb about the prospects for the future. Peng cheng wan li—literally: a great bird (Taiwan) is capable of flying 10,000 miles.