Questions of international politics and military developments also occupy leaders across the ROC's intellectual spectrum. A case in point is the local reaction to the proposed strategic defense initiative (SDI).
Ever since U.S. President Ronald Reagan made his "star wars" speech on March 23, 1983, the proposal has prompted considerable interest and debate in a variety of substantive areas. One of the more focused topics of assessment in the ROC has concerned technological questions relating to the program.
Competition in missile technology has maintained a "balance of terror" for forty years.
Those who favor the SDI proposals in general have been quick to emphasize the challenges of the technological aspects of President Reagan's proposal, and the spin-off research and product boon that may well flow from it. Macro-political questions aside, these scholars and scientists stress that the program itself is in but its initial stage, meaning that considerable research lies ahead before definitive assessments can be made about the overall value and effectiveness of the program. They do affirm, however, the general research direction and the challenges it presents.
There is an underlying assumption, however, that whatever weapons system is finally produced, it is only a matter of time before a countervailing system will arise to effectively neutralize it. Nevertheless, they hope-like many scientific colleagues in the U.S. and Western Europe-that the new technology will tend to make nuclear weapons obsolete.
Opponents of SDI argue the opposite. They assert that the technological uncertainty of the whole project should make the U.S. more cautious about the scheme. Both the Hoffman and Fletcher panel reports apparently failed to convince them of the defense initiative's feasibility. Their criticisms are not much different from similar critics in the United States, and they pose similar questions about assessments of U.S. defense needs, general evaluations of arms control measures, and East-West relations. ROC scientists, like their counter-parts abroad, have drawn specific attention to a necessary reevaluation of the ABM treaty and the likely Soviet responses in light of the star wars program-issues that could make the SDI idea counterproductive in the search for a world safe from threats of nuclear destruction.
This latter group asserts that insufficient attention has been paid to Moscow's critical response to the program. There is a need, they say, to weigh Soviet suspicions in any decisions made about SDI. They believe that given Soviet sensitivity to their security, Moscow would be driven to intensify military buildup plans. Should this occur as the U.S. proceeds with its research on the star wars scheme, the results would be just the reverse of that claimed by the Reagan administration. Instead of making nuclear weapons impotent, it would escalate the arms race and increase the danger of a nuclear war, shattering the very foundation of nuclear deterrence.
The characters for "Self -strengthening" grace the noses of A-T training jets made in the ROC.
True, dependence on reciprocal vulnerability for world peace is imperfect, but deterrence on the basis of a balance of terror has nevertheless worked effectively for the last forty years. Opponents of the SDI in the ROC thus urge greater initiatives from the two superpowers for arms control and disarmament. They echo the view expressed by some American experts that ballistic missile defense would not be able to pressure the Soviets to reach an agreement on force reduction. Even worse, it would undermine rather than augment American security.
Both ROC groups seem to agree on several main issues. The new direction in military policy probably will change the way Americans conduct their space research and will determine the areas that receive priority funding and attention from planners. Reluctantly or otherwise, both groups also favor continued research on defense technology in the United States-and admit the importance of U.S. leadership in science and technology-for there is concern about the possible deterioration of American power, as this would be detrimental to the interests of the free world. In short, there is an underlying agreement that there should be a significant increase in American capabilities to counterweight Soviet military expansion, but less agreement on the methods in which that is achieved.
ROC scientists also recognize their own limited influence in the whole SDI research milieu. Knowing that it is very difficult, if not impossible, for ROC government agencies to participate in U.S. decisions about space defense, government statements on related security issues since 1983 only indicate Taipei's desire to continue close ties with Washington. While political response to Washington's new defense orientation is muted, there is another more animated area of response in the ROC. Not unexpectedly, it falls in the realm of research and its economic possibilities
Scientists see some spin-off benefits from SDI-related research.
A number of ROC scientists have shown great interest in the SDI program largely due to their personal desire for undertaking cutting-edge scientific research. SDI offers an opportunity to tap into some of the most exciting advances in space research, which has been proven in the past to be a great source of spin-off products on terra firma. In addition, the ROC's drive to upgrade its own defense technology has influenced the attitude of elites toward the national defense research programs in other advanced countries.
The ROC government has spent heavily since 1979 to modernize its defenses, especially because of the termination of diplomatic relations with the United States. Across society there has been greater interest in developing missiles and other weapons relevant to Taiwan's defense. Articles depicting new defense technologies and weapons often appear in local newspapers, and seminars have been conducted by universities and research organizations to discuss issues affecting Taiwan's security and industrial development. The increasing need for this type of information is further indicated by an increasing volume of publications on science and technology in Taiwan. It is natural that any technological potential that is likely to generate new opportunities in defense would attract attention from ROC scientists.
Intensity of military training is matched by scientific interests in upgrading technology.
To date; therefore, the discussion of SDI among ROC scientists hones in on evaluations of the program in relation to personal professional interests. They are in good company, for they share a view common in Western Europe: that is, the strongest attraction of the new American strategic initiative is the possibility of participation in what should be highly lucrative technological research. In the face of increasing Asian competition in the fields of technology and trade, Western European zeal for fast industrial growth and rapid technological innovation is understandable. Precisely for this reason, many Western Europeans view the SDI with high expectations. Scientists in the ROC have a similar orientation.
ROC scientists admit that the technological level of Asian NICs is still far behind that of Western Europe. But they have no doubt that Asian NICs can participate in the program on a subcontracting basis. Although Taipei and Washington now maintain unofficial relations, and the vast majority of SDI research is being done by American government laboratories, ROC scientists believe that they can still contribute their considerable talents to the program.
As a result, local scientists look forward to even further ties with the American academic community, and are alert to targeting appropriate areas for scientific research that tie into general SDI plans. Precisely for these professional sentiments, SDI is attracting close attention in the ROC.
While the star wars scheme is a luxury that Asian NICs cannot afford, it does not mean that they will have no role in it whatsoever. It is highly probable that the research will not take place in a single laboratory or in one country, and Asian scientists may find it possible to join the research, albeit in an indirect way. For a scientific research program that will be international in research and multinational in personnel, there are excellent prospects indeed for international cooperation. — (Dr. Bih-jaw Lin is an associate professor and acting dean of the Graduate School of International Law and Diplomacy, National Chengchi University, Taipei).