It doesn't take a military expert to see that without first securing air superiority over the Taiwan Straits, the Chinese Communists' invading armada - be it composed of bona fide amphibious vessels or just motorized junks escorted by missile-carrying destroyers and patrol boats -would be subjected to a relentless massacre while crossing the 100-mile wide channel by the Republic of China's fighter-bombers and surface combat vessels.
Apparently, the Chinese Communist general staff under stands very well that the outcome of any such attempt depends on success in establishing and maintaining air superiority over the Taiwan Straits. He also knows that in order to achieve this objective, the foremost task is the annihilation of the ROC Air Force.
During the early 50s, the Chinese Communists started to build -airbases within a radius of 500 nautical miles from Taiwan and gradually pushed them right up to the Fukien coast, which is just across the Taiwan Straits. According to the U.S. Air Force Magazine, the Chinese Communist air force had about 6,000 combat aircraft, including its naval air arm. Out of this total, it has about 2,000 first-line jet fighters, composed mainly of MiG-I9s, a little over 100 MiG-21s and some F-9s. In addition, there are about 100 TU-16 medium bombers and some 500 light bombers.
On the basis of available information, the maximum accommodation capacity of these Chinese Communist airbases is around 3,500 aircraft, including both fighters and light bombers. This means that all their first-line combat aircraft can be easily staged in an area from which they can cover the entirety of Taiwan within their operational radius. This can be further interpreted to mean that the Chinese Communist air force can, if it chooses, deploy all its first-line combat aircraft in these airbases at any time without being detectl1d. This will ensure them the advantage of surprise once it is decided to launch an air assault against Taiwan.
Also according to the U.S. Air Force Magazine, the ROC Air Force has a total strength of 388 combat aircraft. As Taiwan is narrow and has no depth to offer, the ROC Air Force obviously will have a difficult time in defending the island in the air, for the Chinese Communist jet fighters can cross the Taiwan Straits in less than 10 minutes. This will leave the ROC Air Force with very little time, perhaps not more than five minutes after it receives radar warnings, to scramble its fighters and put them at proper attack altitudes and positions before enemy planes swoop down to bomb or strafe ROC airbases and other targets along the west coast of Taiwan.
Secondly, the numerically superior Chinese Communist air force will be able to send over the Taiwan Straits wave after wave of fighters to wear out the ROC air defenders. Under such conditions, the ROC Air Force must succeed in inflicting heavy blows to the enemy air force within the shortest possible time and to such an extent that the enemy can no longer afford to take any more losses before the ROC fighter force itself is worn out. This is undoubtedly a very tall order for the ROC Air Force. Consequently, how well the ROC Air Force can maintain air superiority over the Taiwan Straits will determine the outcome of the Battle of Taiwan.
With respect to the odds confronting the ROC Air Force, the determinant factor will be high-performance fighters that have a high rate of climb, an ample precision air-to-air weapons system and a reasonably enduring air-borne capability. Furthermore, the number of such fighters must be sufficient to withstand the losses until the invading aircraft give up.
Currently, there exists among some American circles a self-asserted view that since the performance of the ROC Air Force's combat aircraft is superior to that of the Chinese Communist jet fighters, there is no need for the Republic of China to acquire any high-performance jet fighters.
It is evident that the performance of F-5Es shown in the table is much inferior to that of MiG-21s and is barely comparable to that of MiG-19s. But the quantitative ratio is about 2,000 MiG-19s for the Chinese Communists to fewer than 300 F-5Es for the ROC Air Force.
Furthermore, the Chinese Communists are producing F-9s and developing F-12s (already test flown). In a few years' time, the MiG-19s-the current main first line fighter planes -will be replaced by MiG-21s or F-9s or even F-12s. The above table clearly indicates that the F-5E fighters, already greatly outnumbered, can barely match MiG-19s in performance. Then how can the ROC Air Force be expected to accomplish its mission of establishing and maintaining air superiority over the Taiwan Straits in another few years without better jet fighters than F-5Es, so as to match F-9s and F-12s which are even superior to MiG-21s?
Nowadays it takes much longer to manufacture modern jet fighters and to train both air and ground crews to be combat-ready. Thus it becomes even more compelling that the ROC Air Force be equipped with such fighters at the earliest possible time. – Reprinted from Issues & Studies.