World War II ended 25 years ago. The world has now entered the seventies. Incidents of these last 25 years may suggest some prophecies for the world in this new decade.
The last quarter century was a period of cold war between the Soviet Union and the United States and of tumultuous change around the globe. As a result of these decisive events of World War II:
1. Germany and Japan surrendered.
2. With the end of the old colonialism, new nations emerged in Asia and Africa.
3. The United States and the Soviet Union emerged as nuclear superpowers.
The historian C. Quigley has said that the 20th century begins with the atom in 1945 and that the period from 1895 to 1939 was transitional.
The secret Yalta conference marked the first round of the cold war. While President Roosevelt wishfully sought to cooperate with Stalin to establish a world of peace, the latter schemed to get the United States out of Asia and Europe. Because of Stalin's blackmail at Yalta, Russia achieved strategic superiority in Eastern Europe and Asia. Communism expanded and the world was thrown into chaos by this system of dictatorship, slavery, neo-imperialism and neo-colonialism.
Considering that Communism was expanded from Russia to the Chinese mainland, North Korea, South Vietnam and Cuba, Stalin's success must be considered substantial.
The United States was unprepared for the cold war and could think only of containment. The first Russian atomic bomb explosion in 1949 ended the American monopoly and encouraged Stalin to initiate the Korean War.
President Eisenhower did not exploit U.S. military success in the Korean War and this later led to a position of U.S. inferiority in international politics. To prevent U.S. advances, Khrushchev initiated his peace offensive. Dien Bien Phu fell in 1954 and the Geneva Conference divided Vietnam. SEATO was established. In 1955, Russia initiated the Warsaw Pact to cope with NATO. In 1958, the United States demonstrated its successful brinksmanship in the Battle of Kinmen (Quemoy) and in the Lebanon landing.
The Soviet Union launched its first sputnik in October, 1957, and led the space race for the next five years.
In the Kennedy period U.S. policy changed from colossal reprisal to deterrence.
President Nixon is now stressing negotiation. He has declared a new Asia policy (the Nixon doctrine), advocating American non-commitment in Asian wars. The Nixon doctrine is a great retreat when the U.S. open-door policy is recalled. U.S. withdrawal and Russian advance are quite apparent.
However, the Soviet Union has not always been successful. Tito openly opposed Stalin in 1948. American participation in the Korean War was a setback. Russian demand for direct control of Chinese armed forces led to the Moscow-Peiping schism.
The United States and the Soviet Union signed a treaty to ban nuclear proliferation. On November 28, 1969, they started negotiations at Helsinki on the limitation of nuclear weaponry.
Could something else be discussed? The U.S. News and World Report of December 8, 1969, has these comments:
—"There is no reason to believe that Brezhnev wants to help President Nixon end the war."
—"...Talk of a 'pre-emptive war' is discounted. There may be a minority in the Kremlin who favor knocking out (Red) China now, but Brezhnev and the leadership as a whole know the cost of such a war would be very high."
—"If the Russians were running the U.S. Government, the authorities say, the U.S. would be doing all it could to gang up with China against Russia."
—"That being the case, Western diplomats insist, chances for better relations between the U.S. and Russia are far from bright."
Russo-American talks may not be limited to strategic weapons. However, the talks could at most reach a detente for a certain time and a certain place. Even if the nuclear race is ended, tension will continue in other forms.
Western Europe has known tension since the Russian invasion of Czechoslovakia. Realizing that the West would not interfere with their invasion, the Russians have taken the opportunity to call the All-Europe Security Conference, which is scheduled to take place in Helsinki in April. Agreement on disarmament may be possible because Russia wants a peaceful Europe so as to solve the Maoist problem.
There is little hope of solving the Middle Eastern problem. Conflict will continue. The Russians support the UAR and the Palestinian guerrillas in hope of communizing the area and turning it into an anti-American region. The Jews are not politically influential in the United States; however, their economic power and opinion leadership should not be underestimated. The United States may be trapped in a Middle Eastern dilemma.
After backing out of the Asian continent, the United States probably will approach the Chinese Communist regime more frequently.
The United States has decided to return Okinawa to Japan in 1972. This implies that the United States wants to make Japan its agent in Asia, at least in economic affairs.
Ostensibly, Japan will be in a more favorable status in the years to come. With a "neutral" stance under the American nuclear umbrella, Japan will do more business with the Soviet Union and the Chinese mainland.
The United States also wants to do business with the Chinese mainland. The United States now permits overseas American firms to sell non-strategic materials to the Chinese mainland. The Nixon administration hopes to use Peiping to improve its position in negotiations with the Soviet Union. When the United States is closer to Peiping, the Soviet Union may take action. The Maoists realize this and clamor against "anti-Soviet revisionism" as well as "anti-American imperialism".
Free China will be in a difficult situation. The U.S. move toward Peiping cannot contain the Soviet Union but will encourage Japan, Italy, Canada and Belgium to connive with the Maoists.
The future situation will be unfavorable to the United States and the free world. The Russians want a peaceful West Europe and suspension of the nuclear race with the United States in order to concentrate on getting rid of the Maoists. Unless the Maoists are overthrown, they will invade Japan, help the Arab countries invade Israel and use Cuba and other Latin American countries to contain the United States. New liberals, new leftists and the Black Panthers will demonstrate in Washington, New York, San Francisco and other American cities. Red nuclear bombs will fall on eastern American cities after the United States is paralyzed.
The world situation may not be that bad. In history, there is an active and invincible force—the strength of the people. The 700 million people on the Chinese mainland will not be easily controlled by the Chinese or Russian Communists. The Chinese may suffer a holocaust but China will emerge non-Communist.
In the seventies, the United States and the Soviet Union will remain as the world's superpowers. However, with their internal weaknesses and decline of their international prestige, they will not be so powerful by the end of the 20th century. The 21st century will be an era of many blocs. The so-called backward areas of the world will emerge.—Hu Chiu-yuan
Issues & Studies—Japanese Communism
Deterioration of relations between the Japanese Communist Party (JCP) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) dates to March, 1966. Ever since that time the two sides have viewed each other with uncompromising hostility and have constantly traded charges.
The Chinese Communists have been attacking their counterparts in Japan with extremely stinging language, not only accusing them of "'degenerating to the level of the Miyamoto revisionist clique of parliamentarianism" but also identifying them with "U.S. imperialism, Soviet revisionism and Japanese reactionaries".
JCP's counterattack has been just as fierce. It denounced Mao and his followers as "betrayers of Marxism-Leninism" and "rowdies engaged in undermining the international Communist movement."
Reconciliation seems impossible. However, the Japanese press recently reported that the deadlock between the CCP and the JCP had been undergoing "subtle changes". In June of last year Peiping suddenly suspended its mass media attacks on the JCP.
As a matter of fact, the JCP owes much of its postwar growth to two mother parties: the CCP and the Communist Party of Soviet Union (CPSU). Strategically speaking, both the JCP and the CCP have the same basic goal, namely, to incite the Japanese people to abolish the U.S.-Japanese Security Pact and to bring about a revolution within Japan to effect a change in the present pro-Western government. Viewed in this light, restoration of friendly relations between the two Communist parties is by no means impossible.
Some of the JCP members have suggested measures to improve relations with their Chinese counterparts. The major obstacle is Kenji Miyamoto, the secretary of the JCP, who insists on being cautious. Chinese Communists have to bear the major part of the blame for the feud, for the JCP has always played a passive role vis-a-vis Peiping. If Peiping were willing to be the first to stretch out a "friendly hand", the other side would not fail to respond.
The question is: Will the Mao-Lin clique which has arrogantly proclaimed its ambition to lead revolutions in Asia, Africa and Latin America, have the courage to admit some of its mistakes and woo the JCP.
What are the issues which have damaged the ties between the JCP and the CCP? What did the Chinese Communists do? What is the background that has caused these Communist parties that were once "close comrades" to become bitter foes? To answer these questions, a review of the two visits to mainland China made by Kenji Miyamoto on behalf of the JCP is necessary.
In mid-January, 1966, Miyamoto, together with his family and a private doctor, went to mainland China to "regain his health". He stayed more than two months. Less than a month before, the Japanese Communists had reiterated their loyalty to Peiping in the "political report" at their Party's Ninth National Congress. Special emphasis was given to the following two points:
1. In response to the "middle area" theory which had just been put forward by Mao, it was stipulated that the fire of the people's revolutionary movement and of the national liberation struggle was burning in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
2. Success of Peiping's first atomic test in October, 1965, was held to have encouraged the national liberation struggle throughout the world.
Miyamoto may have gone to the Chinese mainland on a secret mission for Peiping. The Chinese Communists were thinking of utilizing the first nuclear test to promote Mao's theory of the "middle area" with the kindling of "people's revolution" in Asia. Mao believed that if armed struggles and guerrilla wars could be launched in Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Burma, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia at a time when large numbers of American troops were bogged down in Vietnam, Washington would not be able to do much. Furthermore, Washington would encounter strong opposition from the American anti-war movement.
According to Mao's plan, the JCP was to renew its "1951 Program" of armed struggle; the PKI (Indonesian Communist Party) was to use its three million members to seize political power; the Thai Communists led by the Peiping-supported "Thai Patriotic Front" were to develop guerrilla bases in mountainous areas; the Burmese Reds were to increase their armed strength; the Philippines and Malaysian Reds were to wage guerrilla war in the jungles; and the Korean Reds were to make preparations for marching south. The Chinese Communists were to be responsible for the supply of weapons and funds.
During his sojourn in mainland China, Miyamoto probably spent most of his time receiving instructions from Peiping.
Failure of the "violent armed revolution" policy prescribed in the "1951 Program" had taught the Japanese Communists a lesson. The JCP's hesitation to take rash action was further reinforced by disastrous failure of the PKI coup attempt on September 30, 1965. The JCP realized that its decision to pursue a more moderate line would not be welcome in Peiping. After careful consideration, it finally devised a way to make its stand known to Peiping. This was accomplished in a long editorial published in the party organ Akahata. The article urged the strengthening of the united front against the United States. However, the article also proposed an international united front including the Soviet Union despite the Peiping-Moscow schism.
Tensions began to mount between the JCP and the CCP, first in the form of indirect allusions and then in direct attacks. The JCP found the following Chinese Communist moves to be intolerable:
1. Attempt to launch a "cultural revolution" within the JCP by inciting Red Guard-type violence among Japanese Communists. Peiping secretly colluded with JCP dissidents to seize power from Sanzo Nosaka, Miyamoto and other JCP leaders.
2. Infiltration of JCP's front organizations. The powerful social organizations whose leadership was seized by pro-Peiping elements included: "Japan-China Friendship Association", "Japan-China Cultural Exchange Association", "Afro-Asian Solidarity Committee" and "League of Japanese Journalists".
3. Inciting of "Japanese power-seizing elements" violently to suppress JCP cadres and their activities.
The Tenth National Congress of the JCP, held on October 24, 1966, was a meeting at which Japanese Communists were forced to reexamine their relations with the Chinese Communists.
Sanzo Nosaka, chairman of the JCP and once regarded as a pro-Peiping leader, fired the first shot at the CCP in protest against its interference in JCP internal affairs. The congress finally approved the decision to part company with Peiping and pursue an "independent line". Since then JCP has implemented a strategy of opposing both the Chinese and Soviet Communists.
On the question of whether or not reconciliation between the JCP and the CCP is possible, we may conclude by saying:
1. The key is whether Peiping is willing to recognize the JCP leadership and give up seeking to establish a new JCP. Peiping's suspension of public attacks is not sufficient to demonstrate that the CCP has backed down. The Chinese Communists have never stopped reporting the anti-JCP activities of the student Zengakuren. This amounts to an indirect offensive on the JCP.
2. Since its split with Peiping, the JCP has benefited from a rise of prestige domestically and internationally. It will not be eager to seek settlement with the Maoists.
3. Anti-JCP organizations have Peiping's blessing to test their strength, especially the new left student groups which have become the mainstream of the anti-JCP movement. They do not want to see peace between the JCP and the CCP and will do their best to obstruct any agreement.
The outlook for rapprochement are not bright.