Since early June, the Communist regime has poured six to eight new infantry divisions and 120 more high speed jet fighters into the Fukien coastal area facing Kinmen (Quemoy) and Matsu.
According to intelligence sources, the Chinese Communists now have 18 to 20 infantry divisions, more than 300 fighter planes, and at least 800 artillery pieces massed in the area.
Most of the jet fighters are believed to be Russian-built MIG-17s, but there may be some of the newer, faster and heavier-gunned MIG-19s.
Biggest Since 1958
The massive concentration of ground and air forces by the Chinese Communists in the area is said to be the biggest in size since the 1958 Kinmen crisis.
Meanwhile, the Communists in Fukien province are stepping up military training of a gigantic force of militia, estimated at 1,600,000.
Much of the militia, however, does not possess weapons and many of its members have had little training in handling weapons or in battlefield tactics.
Its arms are more often than not the hoe, the shovel and the plow.
A report from Kinmen said the Reds opposite the island staged on June 29 the "largest and longest" artillery bombardment exercise since 1958 when the Communists pounded Kinmen with half a million shells in a six-week bombardment.
The bombardment, it said, lasted for two hours but the Red shells fell short of the island, no doubt on purpose.
Artillery experts, judging from the explosions, believed that the Reds have probably moved into the area guns bigger than any of those used in previous bombardments. This explained why the Communists did not want their shells to fall on Kinmen. The caliber of the guns can very easily be identified from the fragments. Explosions of the Red guns rocked civilian houses on the island and sent many of the people running for shelters.
In addition to their military buildup, the Communists have ordered the people on the mainland coast to evacuate and make preparations for war. According to recent arrivals from the mainland in Hongkong, the threat of invasion by free China was the preoccupation of Red cadres along the coastal area as far north as Shanghai.
One of the arrivals from Shanghai claimed that official broadcasts warning of Chinese Government preparations for an invasion were so convincing that many people were preparing to leave the city for the hinterland while others were stocking food.
Record Food Prices
The stocking of food, he said, had pushed food prices to a record level on the "free market."
Reports coming from the mainland said the city of Canton was bustling with transport activities, troop movements and the transiting of non-essential personnel evacuated from the Fukien coastal area.
The People's Daily of Peiping and others gave prominence to passages alleging United States support for Taiwan's plans and appealed to the people to "increase production, support troops and guard against enemy agents."
Since June 22, the Communists in Canton have declared a curfew and security forces have been conducting a door-to-door search nightly for "enemy agents."
During the height of feverish readiness for war, the Reds also imposed a ban on foreigners traveling by train between Peiping, Shanghai and Canton. Later on, the ban was lifted.
Meanwhile, the Peiping regime was reported to be whipping up the biggest anti-America propaganda campaign since the days when the Chinese Communists charged the United States with germ warfare in Korea.
In the new hate drive, the Communists accused Washington of encouraging the hopes of the Government on Taiwan for an invasion of the Chinese mainland.
These sinister events on the Chinese mainland alerted the Free World and once again made the offshore islands of Kinmen and Matsu places of world concern.
The White House on June 21 first voiced official concern over the massive concentration of Communist forces on the mainland coast.
United Press International reported from London that diplomats there supported Washington reports of major Communist military movements on the mainland.
At the same time, the Ministry of National Defense in Taipei issued a warning, saying that "it is a Communist systematic buildup with its aim to mount an attack against Kinmen and Matsu."
On the following day, Vice President-Premier Chen Cheng officially announced the Communist military buildup in the Fukien coastal area and urged the nation to heighten its vigilance against possible Communist attack.
He was the first top-ranking official who confirmed the report of the Red buildup which had caused concern in all Western capitals.
Addressing the conference of the Mainland Recovery Planning Board in his capacity as chairman, Chen outlined the latest situation of the massive Communist buildup of ground and air units in the Fukien coast. He believed there were three motives behind the Communist action:
National Vigilance
First, it could be a precautionary measure on the eve of what the Reds believed was the imminent counter-offensive. Secondly, it might be Communist preparation for an invasion of Taiwan and Penghu. Thirdly, it might be to "present a gesture of military venture to create international pressure" to force the Chinese government to abandon the offshore islands.
The No. 2 leader of the nation stressed that regardless what motive is behind the Communist buildup, "the nation has to be vigilant and prepared to carry out national policies." He noted that free China must retain the initiative to insure victory.
Scores of reporters of leading world newspapers and magazines began to arrive here from the Americas, Europe, Africa and other parts of the world. They were said to have come to cover a possible crisis in the area.
Chinese top military chiefs were busy flying to the offshore islands to inspect combat readiness of the troops and their combat preparations.
The Chinese navy and air force were ordered to intensify sea and air reconnaissance in the Taiwan Straits.
Garrisons on Kinmen and Matsu were placed on double alert.
The ominous Communist military buildup on the mainland coast brought about many speculations both at home and abroad.
Internal Significance
A Chinese observer of mainland events said Peiping's deployment of troops in Fukien appeared to have more internal than external significance.
He believed that the Communist leaders were raising the bogey of an American-inspired and supported invasion of the mainland by the Chinese government mainly to distract the masses as well as armed forces from internal difficulties and dissatisfaction.
The observer pointed out that manpower was needed to harvest whatever summer crops had survived floods and drought and for preparing and sowing the fields for autumn crops.
The ban on foreigners from travel by train could well mean that the Communist authorities were using the railways for mass movements of people from the cities to the countryside as well as for a redeployment of garrisons, he added.
The redeployment of garrisons, he said, was probably necessary to put down any insurrection that might flare up because of continued food shortages and other hardships.
He pointed out that there had been little or no redeployment of garrisons in many areas in the past few years during which soldiers had been fraternizing and working in the fields with peasants, sharing their hardships except in food rations.
Therefore, it was probable that the leaders of Peiping were apprehensive that the soldiers would side with the peasants in any uprising, however small, he said.
The observer recalled that the official Chinese Communist press had earlier admitted that discipline among the armed forces had slackened. A redeployment of garrisons, he added, could help in keeping communities, uncertain of the sympathy of the redeployed troops, from starting an uprising.
Fear of Attack
There could be genuine fear among the Communist leaders or an imminent attack by the Chinese government, the observer said. But he doubted the Communists could launch an offensive against the offshore islands of Kinmen and Matsu, not to mention Taiwan.
He pointed out that Peiping's chances of capturing the two islands were much less today than in 1958 when Communists tried to starve the islands by air and artillery bombardment.
The islands, he added, had been strongly fortified and Taiwan's overall military strength and striking power considerably increased.
Officials in Taipei, however, took the situation more seriously. They believed the massive concentration of Communist ground and air forces in the area facing Kinmen and Matsu indicated a possible invasion attempt against Taiwan.
A spokesman of the Ministry of National Defense said "Since the Korean truce, the Chinese Communists have been systematically moving their ground and air strength southward. Their objective of aggression is Kinmen, Matsu, Taiwan, Penghu and, subsequently, Southeast Asia."
Diversion Attempt
The internal situation on the Chinese mainland, the spokesman pointed out, had become very grave due to natural disasters and popular resentment against the Red tyranny.
The Communists, therefore, might attempt a foreign aggression to divert domestic attention from their serious internal troubles, he added.
Another high-ranking official said the Communist buildup might be a preliminary precaution in an attempt to seize Thailand.
He said the Communists want to take the Southeast Asian kingdom because of its abundant rice production.
Speculations prevailing in Hongkong, as reflected by the Hongkong Standard in its June 24 editorial, was that the purpose of the Communist military buildup seemed to be twofold: to arouse anxiety abroad, and thus reduce the chances of an attack from the Government on Taiwan, and to stage a show of strength at home that would blight any budding thoughts of revolt.
In Washington, theories advanced by American observers on the Communist buildup were more or less the same as those in Taiwan. They include:
—The move is a prelude to an offensive aimed at the offshore islands.
—Peiping may genuinely believe that its agricultural and other difficulties may tempt President Chiang Kai-shek and his forces to attempt their long-threatened invasion of the mainland.
Domestic Uprising
—The regime is disturbed over discontent in the Amoy-Foochow areas of Fukien province and troops have been sent there to put down any possible domestic uprising.
Official sources in Washington, however, believed that the Communists were strengthened to mount a possible attack against free China as an answer to the deployment of U. S. forces in Vietnam and Thailand.
In the midst of hypotheses from the Free World and of war cries on both sides of the Taiwan Straits, U. S. President John F. Kennedy commented June 27 on the issue of the Chinese Communist military buildup, and said that it is a "matter of serious concern to this government."
At a news conference, the President declared the United States is opposed to the use of force in the Taiwan area. But, he added, it will defend the offshore islands of Kinmen and Matsu if necessary for the defense of Taiwan.
The U. S. position in this area, he said, remains exactly the same as it was under President Dwight D. Eisenhower.
Kinmen tanks are ready to rush out of granite tunnels on a moment's notice (File photo)
The purpose of those military moves is not clear, Kennedy said, but it raises the possibility there might be aggressive action against the islands of Kinmen and Matsu.
The threat to the offshore islands, the President said, is to be "judged in the wider meaning" of a possible threat to Taiwan. On this basis, he added, this country will "take action necessary to insure the defense of Taiwan and the Pescadores."
The Pescadores, which the Chinese call Penghu, lie some 50 miles west of Taiwan.
"The United States," the American chief executive went on, "will not stand inactive in the face of any aggression against Kinmen and Matsu that threatens Taiwan and the Pescadores."
He said he thought it important that the Chinese Communists should have no doubt about United States policy in the area. He stressed several times that it is a "peaceful and defensive" policy and that the U.S. treaty with free China is essentially defensive in nature.
As to what the United States would actually do in event of a Communist assault, he said any threat to the offshore islands must be judged at the time it occurs.
But Kennedy said there should be no withdrawal from these islands "at the point of a gun."
President Kennedy's announcement was unanimously lauded by the Taipei press. The English-language China News, in its editorial of June 29, said: "President Kennedy's announcement that the United States will not stand inactive in the face of any aggression against Kinmen and Matsu that threatens Taiwan and the Pescadores is reassuring.
Forceful Reiteration
"This is a forceful reiteration of the American policy laid down during Eisenhower's time. The people of free China are glad that President Kennedy is as determined in trying to preserve peace in the Taiwan Straits as in honoring America's commitments toward the defense of Taiwan and Penghu.
"It is now up to the Chinese Communists to make the next move. Will they heed the warning from the White House or will they keep on preparing for new military ventures in the Straits?
"The people of free China' are convinced that what President Kennedy says is not mere words. The United States will act and act promptly to meet any new Communist aggression.
"Still, President Kennedy chose to keep the enemy-and, incidentally, America's friends as well-guessing as to what the United States actually will do in case of a Communist assault against the two offshore island groups.
Matsu town and isles beyond (File photo)
"He says the American action will depend on the kind of action the Communists take. He also liberally uses such conditional phrases as 'if necessary.'
"It is our understanding that the United States is willing to help defend Kinmen and Matsu but is unwilling to say so outright because of several considerations. America is not sure of West European support. America is not sure of unanimous backing at home. And America wants to make the uncertain commitment work both ways—to prevent a Communist attack and to discourage a national invasion of the mainland ...
"Why shouldn't President Kennedy come right out and declare American determination to defend the island groups? The policy of keeping the enemy guessing did not deter the Communists from building up a big invasion force in Fukien. It merely creates confusion and doubt in the mind of the free Chinese.
Language of Force
"As the Communists understand only the language of force, it is time to talk in this language. We therefore suggest that President Kennedy make it absolutely clear that the United States is committed at all times to defend Kinmen and Matsu. With no 'if's' and no 'maybe's.'
"This is the best way to stop the new Communist invasion attempt.
"In this connection, we would like to puncture the myth that the Communists are building up because of the Nationalist invasion threat.
"The Communists have enough weapons and soldiers in Fukien to man the defense works. The sudden increases in manpower and weaponry cannot be justified on defensive grounds. They are clear indicators of pending Communist invasion attempts. Or, at least, an attempt at blackmailing the Free World.
Invasion Scheme
"On the other hand, free China does not have to limit its own invasion attempt in Fukien. And there are no indications that the Communists are building up all along the coast from Chefoo to Canton.
"The conclusion is apparent. The Reds are harping at Nationalist invasion possibility as an excuse for their own little scheme of invasion. Unfortunately, some Free World leaders have been, for diverse reasons, taken in by the new propaganda twist from Peiping."
Earlier, warships of the U. S. Seventh Fleet had sailed from the big American naval base at Yokosuka, on Tokyo Bay. They included the aircraft carrier USS Coral Sea, an escort squadron of submarine chasers and four auxiliary vessels. The Fleet's heavy cruiser USS Providence and the missile-equipped light cruiser USS St. Paul also were at sea.
U. S. Navy authorities would not say whether the move was connected with Chinese Communist troop movements in the coastal area. But later, a spokesman for the Pacific Fleet in Honolulu emphatically denied reports that units of the U. S. Seventh Fleet were headed for the Taiwan Straits.
Yet this move was exploited by the Chinese Communists as an excuse for accusation.
Communist Bluster
At a rally marking the 12th anniversary of the start of the Korean war in Peiping, Chen Yi, Communist "foreign minister," charged the Republic of China was making preparations for invading the mainland "with the support and encouragement of U. S. imperialism."
Gun emplacement at Matsu (File photo)
If fighting broke out, Chen blustered, the "United States government must bear full responsibility for all the grave consequences."
To support Chen's bluff, Nikita Khrushchev threatened the Republic of China with a "crushing rebuff" from Soviet and Chinese Communist forces "if they dare to invade the mainland of China."
In his speech, the Soviet dictator committed the Soviet Union to backing the Chinese Communist stand in the renewed military crisis in the Taiwan Straits.
He made the remarks on July 2 during a television and radio address reviewing his recent trip to Romania.
Khrushchev accused "reactionary circles" in the United States of attempting to stir up new trouble in Asia following the peaceful settlement of the Laotian question.
He said that President Chiang Kai-shek now is declaring his intention of retaking the Chinese mainland with his troops being moved into positions facing the mainland.
Khrushchev said "aggressive circles in the United States" were encouraging Chiang Kai-shek by sending the Seventh Fleet to the Taiwan Straits.
Nikita Khrushchev's charges against the United States were termed by Secretary of State Dean Rusk as "nonsense" which "should not surprise anyone."
Rusk told newsmen July 2 that the United States had urged "abandonment of force in settling matters in the Taiwan Straits."
Officials in Taipei sensed that the Soviet leader's statement was nothing more than an empty threat. They said it was meant more to enhance international pacifists' fear of war, thereby to heighten his bargaining position, than to render actual help to the Chinese Communists in time of war.
They recalled Khrushchev had made the same bluffing remarks during the 1958 Kinmen crisis. Yet it did not keep the Communists from suffering disastrous military failure in the Taiwan Straits, they noted.
The "warning" by Khrushchev, they pointed out, now is "even weaker in tone" and less firm than his threat four years ago.
They believed that if the Chinese Communists should launch an attack on the offshore islands of Kinmen and Matsu or Taiwan and the Pescadores, the Kremlin would not back them up. Nor will it give the Peiping regime any appreciable amount of help in the first stage of free China's counteroffensive, they said.
Reduced Soviet Aid
"Only when the Chinese Communists have suffered a debacle will Soviet Russia consider doing something to mend the situation," they noted.
Their theories were backed up by intelligence reports that because of their ideological conflicts, Soviet military aid to Chinese Communists has been reduced.
High military sources here also stressed that during the past two years, the Kremlin had considerably trimmed military assistance to Communist China.
For instance, they pointed out that Russian equipment to the Red Chinese army was slashed to such an extent that Peiping's army modernization program was virtually suspended. Soon after the Korean War was over, they recalled, the Peiping regime embarked on an ambitious project of turning its 2,500,000 guerrilla hordes into a modern field army.
Guerrilla warfare
However, by 1959, the Reds reversed their steps and instead were urging the so-called "Mao Tse-tung line" of conditioning their armies to guerrilla type warfare. This reversal of policy was due mainly to a slowdown of Soviet heavy equipment to the Chinese Communists, the sources said.
The leveling off of Soviet military aid to the Peiping regime, the sources added, is further evidenced by withdrawal of Soviet advisors and technicians from the Chinese mainland.
In Washington, informed sources said U. S. Ambassador to Poland John M. Cabot had discussed the Chinese Communist military buildup in Fukien province with Peiping's "ambassador," Wang Ping-nan, at a meeting in Warsaw.
In the meeting, held on June 23, Cabot was said to have warned against any Red Chinese attack on Taiwan. Informants said Kinmen and Matsu, the islands lying immediately off mainland China, were not discussed specifically at the meeting.
The U.S. ambassador, it was said, also gave assurances that the United States had not in any way inspired recent statements by Chinese officials that the time might be approaching to regain the mainland.
Despite threatening Communist invasion, there was little apparent worry on the offshore islands of Kinmen and Matsu. Defenders on these gun-bristling islands were taking the massive Communist military concentration on the mainland coast a lot more calmly than most of the rest of the world.
Kinmen and Matsu know they can withstand any artillery bombardment the Reds hurl at them. And their defenders express confidence that they can throw back any invasion the Reds might attempt with what landing craft the Communists are known to have.
History bears out that confidence. Since 1949, the Communists have failed in five determined attempts to subjugate Kinmen.
In October, 1949, the Chinese forces on Kinmen virtually wiped out two Red divisions that tried an invasion. The Reds tried again the following July, and again the defenders killed or captured almost all of the invaders. Kinmen stood up under an intensive artillery bombardment in September, 1954, another in June-July, 1957, and a record-breaking long, furious bombardment in the fall of 1958.
In August, 1958, the Communists plastered the island with 475,000 high explosive shells in a 44-day bombardment.
Since then, shelling has continued intermittently. By mid-1962, more than 835,000 shells had been rained on the outpost of free China.
Except for intermittent shellings, the Matsu island group has not been severely tested by the Communist forces.
Kinmen today is in far better position to withstand an artillery attack and an invasion than four years ago.
China's Gibraltar
Its ability to withstand enemy attack must be seen to be believed. It often has been compared to Malta and Gibraltar.
Headquarters and command posts are buried in granite tunnels many feet below the surface. Such tunnels, carved out of solid rock, link island defenses.
They lead to emplacements for 155mm guns with their range of 25,000 yards.
They cover up machine gun nests capable of covering the island's entire beach area and shelter the strategically located anti-aircraft guns.
Scores of tanks can rumble out of huge underground caverns in minutes. Hundreds of underground dumps are piled with food, weapons and ammunition. Large areas of the sandy beaches are mined.
The radar system probes 160 miles into the mainland, putting all Communist activities along the coast under constant surveillance.
Most communication wires are below ground. Auxiliary roads hug cliffsides that protect them from shells. Steel and concrete shelters heaped high with earth protect gun positions in the open. Many have already come through direct shell hits without damage.
Underground Quarters
Underground quarters are available for all military personnel. And there are hundreds of underground shelters for the island's 47,000 civilians. Already whole villages live underground as a matter of course.
Compared with Kinmen, Matsu is economically less developed and prosperous because of its largely barren land. Yet it is just as impregnable militarily. Defense installations are similar.
Intelligence reports indicate that the Chinese Communists continue to step up their military buildup in the coastal area. What they will really do is a matter yet to be seen. But whatever it may be, the Republic of China will face it valiantly and resolutely. Moreover, recovery of the mainland is the national goal of free China. Chinese government officials have time and again reaffirmed the unshakable national determination. It is their confidence that the day is bound to come when the Chinese Communist regime will collapse under the pressure of large-scale popular uprisings and counteroffensive by the Republic of China. As to the timing of the counteroffensive, a high-ranking official of the Chinese Ministry of National Defense recently said, "Any day when the Communists launch an attack will be the time for us to stage a counteroffensive against the mainland."